Screening Key Technicals To Select Option Trade Types

Controlling portfolio beta, which measures overall systemic risk of a portfolio compared to the market, on the whole, is essential as these markets continue to break record high after record high with violent pullbacks. 

The month of September was a prime example as the markets pushed to new all time highs early in the month then suffered a deep sell off to only bounce back to new record highs in October. 

Controlling beta while generating in line or superior returns relative to the market is the goal with an options based portfolio. A beta controlled portfolio can be achieved via a blended options based approach where ~50% cash is held in conjunction with long index based equities and an options component. 

Options alone cannot be the sole driver of portfolio appreciation; however, options can play a critical component in the overall portfolio construction to control beta....Read More Here.

 

Where The SP500 Is Headed Next Week

Everyone wishes they knew where the stock market was going to go next. What sector is going to rally? When is the subsequent market sell off? When and where to put your money to work are the questions strive to figure out. Nothing is perfect. You cannot predict the future, but if you follow something close enough, you can get a good feeling of where it’s headed next, based on what it has recently been doing.

There are two moving averages here, the 50 day and the 20 day moving average. When the price is above these moving averages in general, and they’re sloping upwards, this means the market is most likely going to continue to trend higher.

When the price is sloping down, the price is below the moving average, and the 20 day moving average is below the 50 day, just what the market is doing this week; this tells us that there’s actually a mixed market signal. The market is struggling and in a new. As the saying goes, “the trend is your friend,” so it’s always best to trade with the market trend for the chart time frame you are following....Continue Reading Here

How To Trade When There Is Panic Selling In The Market

Straight from me to you – what you should do when panic selling hits the market. Should you follow the pack or hold firm?

As technical traders when all indicators are saying to get out of the market, then this is exactly what should be done. We do not fight a downward trend that is more likely to continue in that direction than it is to reverse. Do I like selling at a loss, of course not. But holding positions when all indicators are saying to sell is not a smart move – it’s an emotional one.

When fear hits the market and panic selling commences, yet all indicators show that the overall market remains in an uptrend, it’s best to hold on through the wave. The market will shake out those who caved to emotion and gave the sell orders to their brokers. To learn more about what to look for and how to trade when there is panic and fear....Listen to the Report Here.

What Does The Fed Mean By "Transitory Inflation" And Why Is It Important To Understand?

As the markets react to the somewhat shocking CPI and Inflation data while Q2:2021 earnings continue to roll across the news wires, we wanted to take a minute to explore the recent Fed comments related to “Transitory Inflation” and what that really means.

The COVID-19 Cycle Phase Setup

The COVID-19 market collapse happened at a time when the general US stock market was continuing to transition into stronger upward price trending and where consumers were engaging in the economy at fairly strong levels. Initial Jobless Claims in November and December 2019 averaged near 221k per week. Real Consumer Spending averaged more than 2.80% throughout all of 2019.

The Consumer Price Index (a measure of price inflation) averaged only 0.18% throughout all of 2019. One could say jobs were strong, consumers were spending moderately robustly and inflation concerns were relatively mild or non existent....Continue Reading Here.

Learn How to Take Advantage of Volatility And Profit From It

Volatility is the most common way to measure risk in the financial markets. While there are a plethora of methods, calculations, and derivatives to calculate volatility, they are all trying to accomplish the same goal: what is the price of a security going to do in the future? Without a crystal ball, there’s no perfect answer, but let’s go through a few common ways that we can estimate future volatility.

Let’s Talk Volatility

Generally speaking, there are two types of volatility that traders and investors use in an effort to understand risk – historical volatility and implied volatility....Continue Reading Here.

 

Utilities Continues To Rally – Is It Sending A Warning Signal Yet?

We have experienced an incredible rally in many sectors over the past 5+ months. My research team has been pouring over the charts trying to identify how the next few weeks and months may play out in terms of continued trending or risks of some price volatility setting up. We believe the Utilities Sector may hold the key to understanding how and when the US markets will reach some level of stronger resistance as many sector ETFs are trading in new all time high price ranges.

Utilities Sector Resistance at $71.10 Should Not Be Ignored

The Utilities Sector has continued to rally since setting up a unique bottom in late February 2021. A recent double top setup, near $68, suggests resistance exists just above current trading levels. Any continuation of this uptrend over the next few weeks, targeting the $70 Fibonacci 100% Measured Move, would place the XLU price just below the previous pre COVID19 highs near $71.10 (the MAGENTA Line).

My research suggests the momentum up this recent uptrend may continue to push prices higher into early May, quite possibly setting up the Utilities ETF for a rally above $70. Yet, we believe the resistance near $71.10 will likely act as a strong barrier for price and may prompt a downward price correction after the completion of the Fibonacci 100% Measured Price Move. In other words, the recent rally across many sectors will likely continue for a bit longer before key resistance levels begin to push many sectors into some sideways trading ranges....Continue Reading Here.

Latest Price Targets for Gold, Silver and Platinum

Join Chris Vermeulen as he provides an overview, chart patterns, and projected trends for the gold, silver, and platinum markets for the upcoming quarter.

Patterns always repeat. Sometimes they take months or years but they always repeat. Gold’s 8 months consolidation is nothing new when we look at 2008 where we lost 34% before bouncing off the .382 and .5 Fibonacci retracement area between $741-$650. 

We then found its next resistance at the .618 ext around $1153 before it began to scream higher to the 1 ext at over $1900 an ounce. As Rick Rule President and CEO of Sprott says, “if past is prologue” and we pull back to the same fib level as 2008, we are there right now or could go as low as $1560. But how high will it go?

Silver blasted out of its multi-year basing formation last year to around $30 an ounce before falling to a low around $22, between the .382 and .5 Fibonacci extensions. We have strong support between $20 and $21, but it is still in a strong bull flag pattern. Where will this bull flag pattern take us?

Not as many people are interested in Platinum as it has been pretty dormant after crashing in 2008, when it was at a premium to gold. The chart looks very different from Gold with more of a “random” feel. Platinum just tested its recent high in 2016 around $1200 an ounce which is bullish, however it still has a long way to go before it tests support like gold around the .382/.5 Fibonacci retracement levels.

Overall, we never know if gold, silver, platinum, or palladium will go ballistic first so it can be a good strategy to own a basket of all of them in a balanced, diversified portfolio....Read More Here.

Find Out Which ETFs Will Benefit From as a Stronger U.S. Dollar Reacts to Global Market Concerns

The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post 2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize. 

Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as global central banks attempt to reign in monetary policies.

This process is not likely to happen suddenly though. If this type of contraction in global monetary policy takes place, resulting in increased pressures to contain excessive credit/debt functions in the markets, then we believe the process may result in an extended 9 to 16+ months of “hit-and-miss” events leading up to a potentially bigger event. 

The Archegos Fund forced unwinding of trades hit the markets recently as a wake-up call. Prior to the Archegos event, the Greensill Capital collapse shocked the global markets because of the size and scope of this failure. Now, we see Credit Suisse issuing warnings that Q1 earnings may have taken a big hit because of exposure to the Greensill and Archegos assets – which is leading to Credit Suisse attempting to put the Gupta Trading Unit into insolvency....Read More Here.

How to Spot Boom and Bust Cycles

One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending. Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well. 

 For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated. Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.

When an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50. Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big ticket consumer spending. 

Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak. Let’s take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart....Read More Here.

Are The U.S. Markets Sending a Warning Sign?

After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively. Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling? We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week. Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)? Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher? What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?

The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs. Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced.

We are also concerned about an early TWEEZERS TOP pattern that has set up early this week. If price continues to move lower as we progress through futures contract expiration week, FOMC, and other data this week, then we may see some strong resistance setting up near $35.25. Have the markets gotten ahead of themselves recently? Could we be setting up for a moderately deeper pullback in price soon?....Read More Here.