Leaked German Military Report Warns Of Apocalyptic Peak Oil Scenarios

The German army doesn't want you to know how freaked out it is about peak oil. But an internal report has leaked to the internet, with excerpts translated by Spiegel. The report says there is "some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later."

Nightmare scenarios include:
Market failures: The authors paint a bleak picture of the consequences resulting from a shortage of petroleum. As the transportation of goods depends on crude oil, international trade could be subject to colossal tax hikes. "Shortages in the supply of vital goods could arise" as a result, for example in food supplies. Oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 95% of all industrial goods. Price shocks could therefore be seen in almost any industry and throughout all stages of the industrial supply chain. "In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse."

Global chain reaction: "A restructuring of oil supplies will not be equally possible in all regions before the onset of peak oil," says the study. "It is likely that a large number of states will not be in a position to make the necessary investments in time," or with "sufficient magnitude." If there were economic crashes in some regions of the world, Germany could be affected. Germany would not escape the crises of other countries, because it's so tightly integrated into the global economy.

Crisis of political legitimacy: The Bundeswehr study also raises fears for the survival of democracy itself. Parts of the population could comprehend the upheaval triggered by peak oil "as a general systemic crisis." This would create "room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government." Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and could "in extreme cases lead to open conflict."

From Gus Lubin at Business Insider.Com.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Phil Flynn: Earl, The Grinch That Stole Labor Day

All of the Who’s down in Whoville may be safe but it seems Hurricane Earl is bent on washing out and stealing their Labor Day fun! The holiday weekend may wash away for many states up and down the East coast.

As Hurricane Earl barrels down it will bring a crashing end to the summer gasoline demand season that was already not up to par with market expectations. The so called “Summer of Recovery” and the all of the gasoline and oil demand expectations that came along with it, now looks like it should be more appropriately titled “The Boulevard of Broken dreams”.

Up and down the Easy Coast of the United States, vacations, tee times, picnics and frivolity of all kinds are being canceled as that heartless monster, Earl, is showing us he has not learned the true meaning of the Labor day holiday which is to relax and burn up a lot of gas. And Earl has his accomplices and no, it is not a dog dressed up as a reindeer.

No, Earl's accomplice is a companion tropical storm named Fiona and a potential tropical wave behind that as well will, at the very least, assure us some very lousy weather for much of the East Coast from Florida with the worst in the Carolina’s all the way up potentially to New York.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Climbs After Reports Show Gains in U.S., Chinese Manufacturing

Crude oil rose after manufacturing in the U.S. and China, the world’s biggest energy consuming countries, accelerated at a faster pace than expected in August. Oil climbed as much as 3 percent and equities rebounded from the biggest August slump in nine years after the Tempe, Arizona based Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 56.3 from 55.5 in July. U.S. crude oil supplies increased 3.43 million barrels to 361.7 million last week, an Energy Department report showed today.

“Oil moves along with equities, the fundamentals don’t matter,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural, resource bond portfolio as senior managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. “Any shred of positive or negative economic news will move the oil market by a couple percentage points.” Crude oil for October delivery rose $2.26, or 3.1 percent, to $74.18 a barrel at 10:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $73.63 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Economists forecast the ISM factory index would decline to 52.8, according to the median of 78 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 49.9 to 56. Manufacturing in China grew at a faster pace in August after the weakest performance since early 2009 in July, signaling that the economy’s slowdown is stabilizing.

Rising Index
The purchasing managers’ index rose to 51.7 from 51.2, exceeding forecasts, a government-backed report showed. Seasonal factors might have had an effect because the index typically gains as factories restart following July maintenance, Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. said. A separate PMI released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics gained to 51.9 from 49.4.

The August reading for the government index was more than the median 51.5 forecast in the Bloomberg survey of 17 economists. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Australia’s economy grew at the fastest pace in three years last quarter, stoked by China’s demand for iron ore. Gross domestic product advanced 1.2 percent from the first quarter, when it rose a revised 0.7 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today.

Reporter Mark Shenk can be reached at mshenk1@bloomberg.net and Margot Habiby at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.88 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 75.58
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.88

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 72.73

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil & gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Bears Maintain Near Term Technical Advantage as Traders Wait For Friday's U.S. Jobs Report

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today and saw some short covering to end the month. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report. Trading could be quieter up until Friday morning. Remember that the months of September and October have been historically unkind to the stock market bulls. Friday's jobs report and the stock market's reaction to it could set the tone for trading in the stock indexes during the month of September.

Crude oil closed down $2.95 at $71.75 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today as bears have regained fresh downside technical momentum. A less than rosy economic assessment from the Fed in its FOMC minutes helped to sink crude today. Crude oil bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed down 0.2 cents at $3.81 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. A 2 1/2 month old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.20.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 3 points at 83.59 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 85.00.

Gold futures closed up $11.80 at $1,251.00 today. Prices closed near the session high, hit a fresh two month high, scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and posted a significantly bullish monthly high close today. Bulls gained fresh upside technical momentum today and are now poised to challenge the all time high of $1,270.60, scored in June. A weaker U.S. dollar and some fresh safe haven buying interest also helped to support the gold market today.

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Bloomberg Analysis: Crude Oil Price May Fall to $63 If Cap at "Pivot High" Holds

Crude oil may decline as low as $63 a barrel in New York if prices remain capped by a “pivot high” at $76.47, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital. Oil futures for October settlement traded around $74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, having lost about 6 percent in August during their first monthly slide since June. Barclays predicts the losses may extend as far as $63 to $65 a barrel if crude stays below the level that confirmed the most recent downward trend, known as a “pivot high.”

On Aug. 19, following a two week fall in which oil dropped 9 percent, crude rose as high as $76.47. That level, higher than the previous and following days’ closing prices, constitutes a pivot high. In the following week, crude slumped to a three month low of $70.76, confirming that the downward slope had not been broken. “Absent a close above $76.47, I think you’ll maintain the downtrend,” Barclays analyst MacNeil Curry said in a telephone interview from New York today.

Prices will first be drawn to $70.35 a barrel, the lowest point reached by the October contract during its slide in May, according to Curry. After that, it is “fairly likely” the commodity will plunge another $6 to $7 as sagging equity indexes drag other markets lower, he said. “The inter-market is not very constructive right now,” Curry said. “Equity markets remain vulnerable to further downside.”

Reporter Grant Smith can be reached at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

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Schlumberger Finalizes $11 Billion Dollar Merger with Smith International

Schlumberger has closed its merger with Smith International. As previously announced, each Smith stockholder will receive 0.6966 shares of Schlumberger common stock in exchange for each Smith share, with cash paid in lieu of any fractional shares of Schlumberger common stock. Schlumberger has issued approximately 176 million shares pursuant to the merger, representing a transaction value of approximately $11 billion. As a result, former Smith stockholders own approximately 12.9% of Schlumberger's outstanding shares of common stock.

The merger widens Schlumberger's lead as the world's largest oilfield services company based on revenue and market capitalization. Smith's drilling technologies, other products and expertise complement a variety of Schlumberger technology offerings, while the geographical footprint of Schlumberger will enable the merged companies to extend joint offerings worldwide.

Andrew Gould, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Schlumberger, commented, "I am extremely pleased to welcome Smith employees, customers and shareholders to Schlumberger. We are ready to begin the process of realizing the synergies made possible by this merger and our focus in the near term is on the execution of plans that have been laid out these past few months while continuing to deliver safety and quality in our field operations. Beyond the near term, the merger will allow us to address new markets and develop new technologies, and employees from both companies will have key roles to play in unlocking the value brought by the combination."

John Yearwood, former Chief Executive Officer of Smith, said, "This is an exciting time for all the former Smith International employees as we aggressively expand our service offerings through the rapid implementation of the identified growth strategies while continuing to focus on our customers' everyday needs. The quality of the integration planning process has been outstanding and everyone is looking forward to exceeding expectations."


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Phil Flynn: The Hurricane Threat!

Many oil traders when they think about the impact of hurricanes on the oil market most often focus on the threat to supply. Yet the truth is more often than not hurricanes are more of a threat to demand then they are to supply. That is definitely the case when it comes to Hurricane Earl, not to mention tropical storm Fiona, Hurricane Danielle and a storm to be named later. Earl in particular could do major demand destruction as its path is perilously close to the East Coast.

Earl currently is a category 4 hurricane and is expected to graze the tip of North Carolina on Friday at 2 am just as vacationers are planning to arrive for the big three day Labor Day holiday weekend. I am sure many looking at the weather maps may be canceling their plans already as many will not want to chance the storm. In fact cancelation may become more prevalent as storm warnings all up and down the East coast may cause vacationers and beach lovers to stay closer to home! Hurricane Earl could just destroy a lot of holiday weekend travel plans and the gasoline demand that was expected. The oil and gas market was expecting.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning August 31st

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.49 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 75.58
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.49

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 74.76

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35



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Where Does The King of Natural Gas Price Forecasts Say Prices Are Headed

From Peter Schaefer at "Oil and Gas Investment"......

First Energy analyst Martin King, whom I believe has called the natural gas market in North America better than anybody over the last two years, gave up on the likelihood of higher natural gas prices for the next 18 months in a report today, Aug 30.

“Let us reiterate: placing money in the natural gas investment space, aside from special one time circumstances, is likely to be dead on arrival” he wrote this morning. He lowered his forecast for prices in the US for 2010 by 40 cents per million BTU, and in 2011 by a full dollar per million BTU (Mmbtu).

Back in February 2009, he was one of the very few calling for a spring rally in gas prices, but there was one. Throughout July and August 2009 he counselled investors that a big seasonal run was coming in natural gas prices and gas stocks, and he was right. Today King was even more negative on Canadian natural gas prices than US prices: “Impacts for Canadian gas pricing are even more negative as we have also chosen to modestly widen the price spread between Nymex and Aeco prices over the same forecast horizon.”

NYMEX is the New York merchantile exchange, and one of the major hubs where natural gas prices are quoted. AECO is the the Alberta based Canadian standard natural gas price quote. In the US, the reason for the lower price forecast is simple: natural gas producers are still drilling, despite low prices.

In Canada, King’s reasoning for even lower prices than the US include one that I have been speaking about for months: increased pipeline capacity in the US that makes domestic gas very portable, and has opened up new markets (the Northeast US and California) for previously stranded Rocky Mountain gas in the US, the mainstream Canadian media have not reported on this, and the amount of Canadian gas that is being displaced by this, at all.

Increasing gas supply coming out of Western Canada, as the Montney, Horn River and gas saturated oil plays increase production. First Energy forecast an actual increase in Western Canadian gas production in 2011, which would be the first time since 2006. King also spoke to a new pipeline taking Canadian gas down into the US at a time when the US market is having a hard time digesting all its own new home grown supply.

In an entertaining 7 page report, he used the analogy of the supply side being a big dragon, and the only sword that could slay it is sustained low prices for 18-24 months“....we are now wielding a price sword to slay this supply dragon with the view that prices low enough for long enough, will tilt the balance of the market firmly to a structurally undersupplied situation.”

Interestingly, natural gas prices rallied today, crawling back over $3/mmcf in Canada and up 11 cents to $3.74 in the US. Also, this last week of August marked the low price point for natural gas in Canada and the US for all of 2009.

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Crude Oil Heads for First Monthly Slide Since May on Slowing Global Growth

Crude oil fell, headed for its first monthly decline since May, as slower than forecast growth in U.S. personal incomes stoked speculation the pace of economic recovery in the world’s largest crude user may falter. Futures dropped as much as 1.3 percent, extending their decline from the highest level in a week, after the Commerce Department said that incomes rose 0.2 percent, less than the 0.3 percent median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. An Energy Department report tomorrow may show crude inventories gained last week.

“The past couple of weeks have been clouded by talk of a double dip recession,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Until we get some macro news that is more consistent, these markets are going to be a bit choppy.” The October contract fell as much as 94 cents to $73.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $73.82 at 1:43 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it dropped 0.6 percent to $74.70.

Prices have tumbled 6.3 percent this month and are down 6.8 percent since the start of the year. Oil rose 2.3 percent last week, the biggest increase since the period ended July 23. “The roller coaster ride continues,” said David Taylor, a market analyst at CMC Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “Markets have become hyper-sensitive to economic developments”.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: Big Bad Ben!

Commodity bears be on notice: Ben is coming to run that big bad deflation out of town. Ben Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed will step up if prices go down. Those words should bring comfort to commodity bulls that have been under assault from an array of weakening economic indicators. That worn out song “for an extended period” may change to "forever and a life time" and the Fed stands at the ready by the printing presses ready to print at a moment’s notice if price fall too far.

It is clear as Mr. Bernanke says that monetary policy continues to play a prominent role in promoting the economic recovery. And if it plays a prominent role in the economic recovery, it is a major factor in promoting the price of oil. Without the Fed's help, oil prices would be collapsing under the weight of near record supply. When the Fed takes steps to fight deflation it directly supports the price of oil. It does it in two ways. One way is because it weakens the dollar.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Falls as Dollar Strengthens, Economic Outlook Remains a Concern

Crude oil fell for the first time in four days as slower than forecast growth in personal incomes heightened concern the economy is struggling to recover. Oil fell from the highest level in more than a week after the Commerce Department reported that incomes increased less than forecast and the savings rate dropped. The dollar strengthened against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“You do have a lot of evidence that the economy is just stalling,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “Policy makers are all making a brave face and saying we’ve got plenty of tools available, but I’m starting to think they’re running out of tricks.” Crude for October delivery fell 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $74.48 a barrel at 9:20 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $75.58. Futures have tumbled 5.7 percent this month, the first decline since May.

The dollar gained 0.4 percent against the euro. The U.S. currency traded at $1.2709 per euro, compared with $1.2763 on Aug. 27 in New York. Incomes rose 0.2 percent, according to the Commerce Department, less than the 0.3 percent median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Reporter Margot Habiby can be contacted at mhabiby@bloomberg.net

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.09. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.96 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.58
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.96

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 74.27

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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High Volume Resistance Plagues Precious Metals, Crude Oil & SP500

Last week was a relatively strong week for stocks and commodities. Although the SP500 closed slightly lower on the week the price action Friday was strong. The recent pop in commodities has everyone feeling good and bullish again and we all know how the market works… When everyone is feeling good the market has a way of shaking things up.

Below are a few charts showing heavy volume resistance levels that will most likely cause the broad market & commodities to pullback or trade sideways for a few days as buyers and sellers play tug-o-war.

SLV – Silver Bullion ETF Trading
Silver had a very nice pop last week but if you step back and look the recent price action you can see that it’s still trading below the previous major bounce from back in June. It looks as though silver is a little over extended as large percentage moves tend to give back 25-50% of the mover shortly after.

Take a look at the price by volume bar. It shows there has been heavy volume traded at that $19.00 level and the previous time it was reached sellers stepped back in pulling silver down.

GLD – Gold Bullion ETF Trading
Gold is trading deep into the resistance level and struggling to hold up. Last week we went long GLD after the bullish engulfing candle and took profits near the high two days later on Thursday’s price. Although gold is trading at resistance the intraday price action remains somewhat bullish/neutral for the time being.

USO – Oil ETF Trading
The oil ETF broke down from its large multi-month bear flag and is now bouncing up to test that breakdown/resistance level. This could be a possible kiss good bye. I will keep my eye on this commodity as it could provide us with a great shorting opportunity in the coming days.

SPY – SP500 ETF Trading
The equities market has been tried to bottom all week and Friday’s price action looks strong. While the chart looks strong the market internals are telling me the opposite. Last week we saw a gap down and Friday that gap window was filled. With heavy volume resistance just above the current price the odds are pointing to lower prices.

Weekend Equities and Commodities ETF Trading Report:
In short, it looks as though everything is trading just under or at resistance levels. That means sellers will start to enter the market and cause prices to stall (trade sideways/choppy) and or reverse lower.

That being said, with Friday’s strong close for oil and the sp500 I am expecting a gap higher in the morning because traders will review those charts this weekend and enter the market Monday feeling bullish.

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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook

Natural gas's decline extended further last week as expected and the strong break of 3.81 support confirms that whole fall from 6.108 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 5.196 to 4.288 from 4.007 at 3.538 first. On the upside, above 3.86 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 4.288 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 3.81 support last week confirms that whole decline from 6.108 has resumed. Further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896 next. More importantly, the development revived the case that medium term rebound from 2.409 is completed at 6.108 already. Also, fall from 6.108 might indeed be resuming the long term down trend for a new low below 2.409. We'll pay attention to the structure of the current decline for more hints. On the upside, break of 4.288 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 5.877) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.617) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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Crude Oil Analysts' Horrible Track Record Shows Why Prices Could Super Spike Thanks To China

Last week we highlighted a chart from the Council on Foreign Relations, which showed China's potential to become a truly monstrous oil consumer, should it approach the oil consumption-per-capita levels of Taiwan, Korea, or heaven forbid, the U.S.. Here's a quick refresher of the chart, for those who don't want to check the previous post:

China could rock oil. Basically, China has the potential to truly rock the oil market, just as it has already done for other commodities such as iron ore, given that even at its currently low level of oil consumption per capita, it is the second-largest oil consuming nation in the world.
If so, then why aren't more people talking about this? Is it just a scare story?

So far the consensus view is that China won't fulfill the scare story shown in the chart above, since the Chinese government is already working to restrain oil consumption growth in the future, via initiatives such as natural gas powered transportation and research into mass market electric cars. The consensus oil view is thus that China's oil demand will rise for the next few decades, but not by as much as the CFR shock chart above would suggest. We even received some push back from an experienced oil analyst for discussing the topic.

Many professionals believe it won't happen. Here's a slightly dated China oil forecast we pulled from the IEA, which shows a rather tame growth trend for Chinese oil consumption. While the chart below is from 2007, the latest China oil consumption forecast is about 9 million barrels per day by the end of 2010, which is similar to what's shown below.

Problem is... professional oil demand forecasts are horribly inaccurate. Thing is, the IEA has been hiking their Chinese demand forecasts for years as shown below. Even as recently as 2004, the IEA expected that China's 2015 oil consumption would be 9 million barrels per day... which is about what today, in 2010, China's consumption is expected to be by the end of this year. Oops. Forecasts just keep rising:

Moral of the story -- commodity price spikes happen because nobody expects them to. Just because many pros think China will diversify its fuel sources into electricity and natural gas, thus keeping oil consumption in check, doesn't mean it will happen. Many oil market pros could easily be wrong, as they've been in the past, and Chinese demand could continue to be revised upwards, just as the CFR chart we showed last week suggests is a possibility.
Sharp spikes in prices happen, after all, since few expect them to happen, and reality keeps bewildering expectations. Does this mean oil prices are guaranteed to super-spike? Of course not. But don't discount the simple historical analysis shown by the CFR chart above, China could easily fail in its quest to reduce its oil dependence, and send oil prices through the stratosphere as a result.


For more check out Vincent Fernando at Business Insider .Com


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday August 28th

Crude oil dropped to as low as 70.76 last week but was supported by 71.09 support and rebounded. As short term bottom should be in place with bullish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. More recovery would likely be seen in near term. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 78.31 and bring fall resumption. As discussed before, decisive break of 71.09 support will confirm our bearish view that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already and target another low below 64.23.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Decisive break of 71.09 will confirm this case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 82.97 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, daily, weekly and monthly Charts.



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