Profit Taking Tempers Early Gains in Crude Oil

Crude oil closed higher on Monday and tested the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.90. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.90 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the last half of July. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.38 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 64.90
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 73.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.38
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.641 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.454 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.45
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.23

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Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market

Friday, oil prices climbed as the U.S. economy released its housing data showing that it came in better than market expectations which aroused speculations back in the markets that the housing sector is finding its bottom. Investors focus on any U.S. housing data as this was the reason behind the global financial turmoil, so an improvement of data, means that the economy will start enhancing therefore increased demand on energy products especially as the U.S. is known as the world's biggest energy consumer.....Complete Story

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Natural Gas Market Seeks Sign

Four consecutive weeks of smaller than expected injections of natural gas into US storage triggered a 12% price jump for the front month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange in mid-July in what some hoped might be the first sign that well shut ins and reduced drilling may be decreasing supply. The August contract bumped up to $3.67/MMbtu on July 16 after the Energy Information Administration reported the injection of 90 bcf of gas into US storage in the week ended July 10. Still, the price of the front month gas contract.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Price Collapse Portends of Larger Monumental Rise

There is little known or written about the reason why crude oil was required to undergo a monumental collapse similar to a huge dive. This monumental collapse portends an even bigger and more monumental rise. In jest i would like to call this reason “the rule of rosen.” However, i know better than to usurp in any way those forces that are far more powerful than any mortal or collection of mortals.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Higher Challenging 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally and is challenging the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 63.94

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 64.90
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.44
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above the 20 day moving average crossing at 36.45. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.645 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 4.138 later this month. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.461 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Natural Gas pivot point for Monday is 3.67

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.785
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.138

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.461
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.225

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Natural Gas ETF Plunges More Than Fuel Even as Shares Sell Out

The largest exchange traded fund for natural gas, so popular that it ran out of shares two weeks ago, has lost 43 percent this year and probably will keep falling until winter, trailing the fuel it’s supposed to track. The United States Natural Gas Fund will suffer from record high gas inventories and seasonal prices hitting the ETF harder than the fuel, said Teri Viswanath, the director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston. Investors piled into the fund this year, driving up its number of outstanding shares 11-fold.....Complete Story

Iraqi Parliament Declares it Can Halt Oil Contracts

Iraq's parliament has the authority to block a contentious oil deal with BP and China's CNPC, despite the oil ministry's insistence lawmakers can do nothing to derail the agreement, a top lawmaker said. "The government believes that such a subject is included in its authorities, according to existing law, but if parliament finds these contracts or this (bidding) round ... are not beneficial, parliament can prevent the government," parliament speaker Ayad al-Samarai said in an interview on Sunday.....Complete Story

U.S. LNG Surge May Have Been Overstated.

Earlier this year there were predictions for a large surge in LNG imports. While the shipments have started to come in, it's hasn't yet been the torrent some had expected.
U.S. daily LNG usage averaged 1.44 Bcf in Q2, according to Pritchard Capital Partners "well short of the earlier estimates that called for 3-5 Bcf a day." According to the Energy Information Administration the U.S. consumed 23.2 Tcf of natural gas in 2008, and is on track to consume around 22.5 Tcf in 2009. With reports of overseas liquefaction plants running..... Complete Story

Cuba Begins Expansion of JV Refinery with Venezuela

The Cuban authorities have begun the expansion of the storage capacity of a Cuban-Venezuelan refinery, local media reported Thursday. Cuban Basic Industry Minister Yadira Garcia hailed the advance of the work, including the installation of four tanks, each one with a capacity of 20,000 cubic meters, reports said. During a tour of these facilities Wednesday, Garcia said expanding the storage capacity of the refinery is "strategic" work.....Complete Story

Sabic Net Tumbles 76% on Plastics, Fertilizer Demand

Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest petrochemical maker, said second-quarter profit fell 76 percent, missing analysts’ estimates, as the economic slump hurt prices and demand for plastics and fertilizers. Net income declined to 1.81 billion riyals ($483 million) from 7.55 billion riyals a year earlier, Riyadh based Sabic said today in a statement on the Saudi bourse Web site. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 2 billion riyals.....Complete Story

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