Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's decline, last May's low crossing at 59.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98. First support is today's low crossing at 64.24. Second support is last May's low crossing at 59.43.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.173. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 3.855 is the next downside target. If June renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.678 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.494. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.678. First support is today's low crossing at 4.040. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.855.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.16 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.16.

Gold closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1193.20 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1156.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1214.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1214.90. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1175.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.


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Phil Flynn: Expiration Aberration

Oil prices bucked the deflationary commodity trend with a late session turnaround as traders moved to cover positions the day before the June futures contract expiration. Some traders credited the turnaround in the market to what seemed to be an increasingly optimistic Federal Reserve that raised their economic growth expectations in the release of its Fed Minutes. The Fed said in the Minutes from the FOMC meeting last April that GDP growth would range to 3.2% to 3.7% which was up from a previous forecast range of 2.8% -3.5%. The Fed also lowered its forecast for unemployment from a range of 9.5%-9.7% to a range of 9.1%-9.5%.

Of course one has to remember that these forecasts were made before the depth and gravity of the European financial crisis was clear to the market. Oh sure, the Fed did mention that the Greece crisis could impair US Markets but I do not think that they realized how bad the situation was at that time.If the turnaround in oil was all about growth expectations then why did we not see more confidence in buying some of the other commodities? Unless of course you assume that oil is going to be a leading indicator of economic growth. And the other reason we saw a snap back was due to the fact that oil is over sold.....Read the entire article.

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Don't be Surprised When One Euro Equals One Dollar... It Could Happen

As everyone in the Western World knows, Europe has been having its share of major problems. All of Europe’s trials and tribulations have had a dramatic affect on the performance of the euro, recently putting it under severe pressure.

Unlike the United States, where we can print money and inflate ourselves out of most problems, the Eurozone is accountable to the 16 nations who gave up their own currency to join.

In our latest video we'll explain how our "Trade Triangle" technology has been very accurate since the beginning of the year for the euro. Although we've nailed the market thus far, it leads to the big question: Have we seen the euro bottom out?

We hope our new video answers that question and highlights some of the reasons why we believe we could be seeing some strong opportunities in this market.

As always the new video is available for viewing now and there is no charge or registration requirement. Please feel free to leave a comment on this video and where you think the euro is headed.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Crude recovers mildly after dropping to as low as 67.90 and downside momentum is seen diminishing with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor with 72.52 minor support intact, towards 38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 66.54 next. On the upside, though, note that break of 72.52 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. on the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall fro 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Mid-Week Gold, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar and SP500 Report

It has been an interesting week in the market as stocks and commodities push to extreme support levels. Below I have posted some charts showing where the market is currently trading at and what I think is likely to unfold.

Gold Futures – 4 Hour Candle Stick Chart
The price of Gold is testing a key support level. I figure we will see gold try to stabilize over the next week or so as it digests the recent drop in value then start to head back up.

US Dollar Index – 60 Minute Candle Stick Chart
The US Dollar and gold have been moving together the past few weeks as more countries pop up on the radar for serious financial issues. This is helping to boost both the US Dollar and gold as investors around the world starting buying what seems to be safety. The dollar has had a sizable pullback and is now testing a key support level.

This could be the start of a possible Head & Shoulders pattern forming which means the dollar rally could be nearing maturity in the next couple weeks.

Crude Oil Futures – Daily Trading Chart
Oil has been under serious selling pressure because of the rising USD. It has now dropped to a key support level and is starting to look very interesting. If the US Dollar bounces in the next week or two it will keep downward pressure on oil. I think this bottom is going to be a process not a one day event.

SP500 – Daily Trading Chart
Stocks have been under dropping like flies the past few weeks and shorting the SP500 last week at 1170 has played out very nicely for members. The broad market is giving me mixed signals and when I am unsure of a trade I stand on the sidelines. It’s always better to sit in cash and watch things stabilize than it is to watch your hard earned money evaporate. We could see a wave of panic selling in the stock indexes testing the previous lows so be cautious.

Mid-Week Stock & Commodity Trading Report Conclusion:
In short, I feel gold and the dollar will bounce in the coming days from their support levels. This will keep pressure on oil & the SP500 holding them down near support. Once the US Dollar forms a possible right shoulder we will most likely see them pop and rally.

We are still 7 trading days away from a cycle low on the broad market making this scenario very likely to play out. At the moment I am getting a lot of mixed signals and during times like this I prefer to stay in cash because volatility will rise and it is easy to get shaken out of trades.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the oil and gold markets, and offers perspective on where the two commodities may be headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil posted an upside reversal due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 65.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.80. First support is today's low crossing at 67.90. Second support is last July's low crossing at 65.66.

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.177 tempering the near term friendly outlook. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.715 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.494. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.715. First support is today's low crossing at 4.131. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.855.

The U.S. Dollar posted a downside reversal due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.96 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.53. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.96.

Gold closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1191.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1191.30. Second support is today's low crossing at 1186.60.

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Crude Oil Increases as the Euro Climbs From a Four Year Low

Crude oil rose in New York after the euro rebounded from a four year low against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will announce further steps to halt the region’s debt crisis. Oil rebounded as the common currency gained after Axel Weber, an ECB Governing Council member, said the euro region must “urgently” tighten its fiscal rules. Prices dropped earlier today after Germany’s prohibition on short selling sparked concern that regulation will increase. A government report showed that U.S. oil supplies climbed for a 16th week.

“Oil is reacting to the strong rally in the euro,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “There’s a fear that there will be further government intervention in the markets.” Crude oil for June delivery rose 49 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $69.90 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $67.90, the lowest intraday price since Sept. 30.

Brent crude oil for July settlement declined 88 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $73.55 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract reached $72.72, the lowest level since Feb. 16. German Chancellor Angela Merkel laid out proposals to gain control over “destructive” financial markets after she imposed a unilateral ban on naked short selling that sent stocks and the euro sliding.

Short sellers borrow assets and sell them, betting the price will fall and they’ll be able to buy them later, return them to the lender and pocket the difference. In naked short selling, traders never borrow the assets so betting is unlimited.....Read the entire article.


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Phil Flynn: Here We Go Again

Ok, now let's get this straight. They write a big check to Greece to try to restore confidence in the EU and then Germany decides to shake that confidence a bit by banning “naked short selling” in stocks. Once again just when the market tried to put this EU crisis behind us, here we go again. Producer prices came in at a negative as deflation pressures are mounting and the last shred of confidence the market held on to was dashed by the terrible timing of Germany’s BaFin financial services regulator saying that it will introduce a temporary ban on naked short-selling and naked credit default swaps of euro area government bonds starting at the midnight hour.

As in last night! It had appeared that the market was starting to stabilize but now what! Way to go guys. Way to go to not instilling confidence. The BaFin Financial service head Jochen Sanio is the same one that said that speculators were, "waging a war of aggression against the euro zone." He is now taking steps to make sure speculators stay away and make them less likely to buy euro zone toxic debt from countries like Greece who fraudulently hid the magnitude of their real debt in the first place. No wonder the euro is in trouble as.....Read the entire article.

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