Could The Over Printed U.S. Dollar Be The Market Leader? For Now, YES!

With so much good economic news coming out of the U.S. from a second straight month of job growth to reduced crude oil inventories, why does it seem a temporary top has been formed at 92.58? Answer is easy, strength in the U.S. Dollar. And that strength doesn't appear to be fading soon as the dollar was higher overnight extending it's trading range of the past five weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish for the dollar signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Combine that with bubble talk in the gold trade and all the good news in the world won't support $100 oil.

The number one factor in determining sector rotation is "currency of choice". And these days the world markets only see three choices. The U.S Dollar, Gold and crude oil. Their choice this week is obvious, the U.S. Dollar. We still view the long term trend of dollar weakness to be in place but for now the dollar will bring misery to the crude oil bulls until more dire news can take it's place.

As we predicted yesterday our friends in Saudi Arabia took their first step in assuring $100 oil was not in the cards by lowering the prices of heavy crude exports to Asia. Forcing Iran to follow suit and making it even more difficult for Iran to show a profit on their heavy crude production.

So let's turn on the TV and watch the parade of fund managers turned TV stars on our favorite CNBS channels call for $100. We'll trade for today and we'll trade using these numbers.....


Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 87.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.74 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.74. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 92.58. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 88.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 87.43. Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 89.75.

Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.325 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.707. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 4.454. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.325. Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.520.

Gold was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1331.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1395.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1395.90. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1424.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1361.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1331.10. Gold pivot point for Thursday morning is 1374.30.


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Lower Oil Prices.....Blame it on the Gasoline!

Well that didn't take long. Even in the face of better job estimates crude oil bulls have already begun to show their "nervousness" as they trade oil down as low as 88.10 in the overnight session. The lowest crude oil has traded since December 20th. And what do they blame it on? Blame it on the gasoline.

The street is saying that massive snow storms during the recent holiday week have caused a large drop in gasoline demand. MasterCard Inc., the second biggest payments network company, said in its SpendingPulse report that motorists bought an average 8.41 million barrels of gasoline a day in the week ended Dec. 31, down from 9.61 million the previous week.

This even with continued draw down in crude inventories is giving us an insight into where the tolerance level of the commodity traders is. The bulls are screaming "$100 oil is just not in the cards". And that just might be the case. Weather you believe the long term oil production capabilities claimed by the Saudis or not the effect they have on the market is real. And they have made no secret of the fact that they do not want $100 oil.

The Saudi's, saviors of the U.S. economy. Strange as it sounds it just might be true as they know better then anyone that we can't have it both ways. We can't have high gas prices and an expanding U.S. economy. And still our politicians in this country [U.S.] still do everything in their power to keep us from increasing our own oil production and weaning ourselves off of foreign oil. Just sell electric cars, that is the answer. While we do everything we can to limit the production and expansion of energy production and distribution.

Good thing we don't have to trade what will happen in the future, we can trade today! And here's the numbers we'll be using to do just that......

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 87.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.61 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.61. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 92.58. First support is the overnight low crossing at 88.16. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 87.43. Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 89.94.

Natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.334 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.707. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 4.454. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.334. Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.644.

Gold was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1372.70 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1397.80 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1397.80. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1424.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1372.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1361.60. Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning is 1390.50.


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Hedge Funds Appear to be on Board the Crude Oil Bull Bus

It appears the crude oil rally and the pain being felt by some oil companies could be getting some support from the Obama administrations delay in approving the resumption of drilling for rigs in the gulf region. While the public hears "we have lifted the ban" coming out of Washington. The fact remains that no operator has been given the green light to resume drilling. Costing some companies $100,000's per day in rig expenses while the rigs sit idle waiting for word out of Washington.

And the smart money is paying attention. Bloomberg News reports this morning that hedge funds and other large speculators increased their net long positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 4.6 percent in the seven days ended Dec. 28, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. It was the biggest total in records going back to June 2006.

We always put a lot into the "smart money", these funds take up such a large percentage of the money that is on the table at any given time that you have to. And these funds tend to be the slow moving indicator in the market, not the fast moving commercial traders that also make up 50% of the market. But we are sticking by our correction outlook that focuses on the middle of January as there is just to many bulls in this market right now. That is never healthy. Show me a rallying market with plenty of bulls and bears on each side of the trade and I'll show you a sustainable rally. But as always we will trade the numbers given to us today, and here they are.......

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 89.02 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 92.58. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 93.87. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 91.00. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 89.94. Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 91.78.

Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.321 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.688. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 4.454. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.321. Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.610.

Gold was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends last week's rally, December's high crossing at 1432.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1372.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1424.40. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1432.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1395.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1372.70. Gold pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1420.10.


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Big Trends Are Coming in 2011, How Will We Trade Them?

From Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com......

With the start of a new year comes starting at zero on our performance numbers and time to start looking for new profitable trades along with managing our current open positions on our small cap stocks which we continue to hold with gains of 66%, 35% and 10%.

Last year was a tough one as the stock market chopped around in a very large range giving off buy and sell signals every week and some times every other day… If you understand how to trade options then these conditions can make you a boat load of money.

Those who follow me or trade with me through my trading newsletter know how conservative I am when looking for low risk setups in both ETFs and stocks. And no doubt agree there were some extended periods of time when we did not have any trades because the volatility on a daily basis was making it the risk higher than what I wanted us to take, thus we waited for setups instead of chasing prices. We still locking in some solid gains with 8 winning trades, but feel we can better this year especially if we get less chop and more of a trending market.

It’s safe to say some people just do not like being in cash, hence the reason so many want stock picks and trades all the time. But to be flat out honest, I love being in cash or at least holding a good chunk in cash waiting for a high probability opportunity to pop up on my charts before committing my hard earned cash. It’s better to be wishing you were in a trade than to have all your money tied up in losing positions just because you wanted to be active… Because I give you only the trades I am making with my own money, I think that is the reason things are slower paced, unlike some other newsletters in this industry which fire off new trades each day or week just to keep those addicted (wanting stocks picks all the time) happy.

Anyways, 2011 should be a great year for trading, investing and education. Last years fast paced market I know either took your money and got you really frustrated, or you made money and was able to use the difficult conditions to fine tune your trading and money management stills like I did. 2011 feels like it’s going to start out similar to 2010 where we get a move up into mid January, but once earning season starts the market sells off on the good news for an 8-10% correction.

The good news is that after last years fast paced market and my constant refining of my strategy and money management rules, we should be able to catch the majority of the trends this year both up and down using stocks, regular ETFs and Inverse ETFs.

As much as I would like to forecast what I think will happen this year, I have decided to take the market one quarter at a time to keep everyone more in tune with what’s happening now and a glance forward up to 2-3 months.

Take a look my SP500 charts for the next 3-8 weeks below.

SP500 Index – Daily Chart
On this chart you can see that the overall trend right now is still clearly up. But with this current situation I feel one should be on the sidelines waiting for the market tip its hand telling us its headed higher or lower. If it prices start to fall we will look to short the market in order to profit from the correction as long as the market provides an optimal opportunity.

Currently the market sentiment levels are at extreme highs, which is the same as last January and April’s highs. With extreme sentiment, light volume (lack of buyers) and earning season just about to start I cant help but think a nice correction is about to take place which will cleanse the market before the next big leg higher.

If all goes according to plan we should see an 8-10% correction. A pierce of the November low is what I am looking for as that would trigger a lot of protective stop orders and create panic selling in the market. It is panic selling which creates a market bottom. That being said we may not get that large of a correction which is why we must continue to monitor the market closely as my analysis will change with the market.

Jan 2010 SP500 Correction
This time last year the market was in a very similar situation with market sentiment, light volume, and earning season just around the corner…

Its difficult to pick tops because they can stay overbought for an extended period of time, bottoms are a little different simply because fear is more powerful than greed and shows it’s self on the charts once you know what to look for and how to trade it. My point here that you should not jump the gun and start shorting just because you think one is around the corner. I prefer to wait for more of a clear signal that sellers are in control then ride the short term down trend and hope it blows up into the correction I think we are about to see.

During bottoms there are new low washouts, and the same goes for tops, we get several small new highs just before the price rolls over, and that has yet to happen.

Weekend Market Trend Conclusion:
In short, 2011 should have several great plays as I am looking at the SP500, Precious Metals, Oil, US Dollar, Bonds and Emerging Markets for some big moves. You can get my pre-market daily videos, intraday updates along with my stock and ETF trades by visiting my website and joining my newsletter at > The Gold and Oil Guy.com


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Crude Oil Bulls Start 2011 on a Positive Note

We can't deny the run, crude oil gained 15 percent last year and most analyst who called the bull run in oil prices were spot on. But is that it? Can a "V" shaped recovery in oil continue in the face of slowed Chinese manufacturing in December 2010 for the first time since July. The Bloomberg survey of economists shows that China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, will slow to 9 percent this year from 10 percent, that would still be three times the rate in the U.S. and six times Europe’s.

Russia for one is doing it's part to put an end to the run. Reporting oil production numbers not seen since the Soviet era. And while that increase in crude oil production was a mere 2.2% Russian natural gas production spiked a whopping 15% in 2010. Do they have more of that in store for us in 2011? And how will our "friends" in OPEC respond? Regardless of what they say I would not expect any pull back from the cash strapped countries of the now obsolete organization. In fact we expect to see an increase from the.....can we call them an organization?

The 2010 run ended with crude oil inventories dropping 4 weeks in row, the longest drop in more then a year. Does all of this scream out bubble? We suspect the bulls are going to enjoy a warm welcome from the sun tanned returning traders. But we stick by our cautioning tale that the second week of January could bring these oil prices back to earth with higher inventory reports. But we are trading TODAY, and here are the numbers we are going to use......

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 89.02 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 92.20. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 93.87. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.80. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 89.02. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 90.83.

Natural gas gapped up overnight and was higher as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 4.635 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.268 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.563. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.635. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.310. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.268. Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 4.388.

Gold was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends last week's rally, December's high crossing at 1432.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1361.6 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1422.00. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1432.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1361.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1352.00. Gold pivot point for Monday morning is 1416.00.


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2011 Crude Oil Price is All About The Double Dip

At this point the future of oil isn't about inventory and current demand. Obviously oil is in the position to trend higher to $100 and higher. What it is really about is do you believe a double dip in the U.S. economy is inevitable. If you listen to the talking heads they seem to think commodity demand in general will move forward even in the face of a double dip. Everyone is on board the bull train. But how quick they forget.

We personally think that if this type of demand increase continues 2011 is shaping up to be a carbon copy of 2008. Remember 2008? Spiking oil and food prices combined with housing prices taking another hit bringing down more banks and financial institutions with them.

All of this could be a distant memory and $93 oil will be called the bull run of 2010. As refinery issues in Canada fade, the Chinese continue to inflate their currency reeling in inflation, end of year low inventory tax advantages disappear and traders come to their senses that none of this was possible without the QE2 printing presses going full speed. This may be no time to short oil but January 15th and a whole new set of rules is right around the corner.

But we are trading TODAY, and here's the numbers we'll be using......


Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the rally off November's low, May's high crossing at 93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 89.63 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 91.07. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 93.87. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.24. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 89.63. Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 91.77.

Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low and is trading above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.298. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.298 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains into the new year. If February renews this month's decline, November's low crossing at 3.913 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.343. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.554. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.985. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.913. Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.271.

Gold was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at 1432.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1361.6 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1415.40. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1432.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1361.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1352.00. Gold pivot point for Thursday morning is 1410.00.


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Adam Hewison Lays out 5 Market Calls for 2011

As we wind down 2010 it's no surprise that the Monday morning quarterbacks are coming out of the wood work. Everyone pundit, reporter or writer who considers themselves an “expert” comes out of their ivory towers and makes their annual market predictions for the New Year.

It’s time to kiss those predictions goodbye

I can honestly say that I wish I had a crystal ball like these other forecasters, but that’s not quite how the markets work. You see, markets don’t give a “Rats A**” about what forecasters say or what predictions economists make. The market is the only true voice out there. Think about that for a moment. How many predictions do you remember that were even close to being spot on a year in advance? I remember several forecasts for 2010 and most of them were far from accurate.

Does it make any sense to trade on a year end forecast, not knowing what can happen in this crazy world we live in? It doesn’t make any sense to me or to other professional traders who never trade based on year end predictions. So let’s get back to reality and take a look back on 2010 to see what the big trends are showing for 2011.

1. GOLD: Major Trade Triangles Bullish

Let’s start with everyone’s favorite market, gold. Gold is without question the most emotional market in the world. Investors and traders who are involved with this metal are passionate about its future and that can be a bad thing. Let me explain. Back in 1980 gold peaked around $850 an ounce. Had you purchased gold around that time, it would have taken approximately 30 years for gold to get above that level again. Call it the lost 3 decades.

Now the arguments are that the gold market should be trading well above $2,000 and that the central banks and governments are manipulating the price for their own advantage. Don’t believe it. There are also hundreds of other conspiracy theories that seem to pop up for this particular market. Like I said, it is a passionate and emotional market.

Here’s how I’m going to trade gold in 2011. In 2011, I’m going to rely on MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology which has an excellent track record in gold. By taking a methodical approach and not guessing which way the wind is blowing, you have a far greater chance to close out 2011 with a big plus for the year.

I expect the gold trend will carry over from 2010 and then change somewhere along the line. This is the history of this market. One thing that I can be 100% certain of is that gold prices will fluctuate in 2011. That’s a guarantee!

2. CRUDE OIL: Major Trade Triangles Bullish

Next, let’s take a look at a market that impacts everyone’s pocket book, crude oil. Crude oil recently moved over $90 to two year highs and once again shook up excitement in this market. When looking at the fundamental market, we’re running out of oil, production continues to go down, and no new oil fields have been discovered in the last several years. The other fundamental story is that China and India are becoming more affluent and developing a middle class economy which will lead to increased oil consumption to power their newly purchased cars and scooters. This could all be true, however; it really doesn’t change the way you should be looking at the market. Once again, we are going to rely on MarketClub’s Trade Triangle technology, which has done a stellar job identifying trends in this market over the last few years.

So at the moment, the trend in crude oil is on the upside for 2011.

3. US DOLLAR INDEX: Major Trade Triangles Mixed to Negative

The other big market that everyone is talking about is the US dollar. You may or may not remember the doomsday forecasts in December of 2009 for the dollar. Quite the opposite occurred as the dollar enjoyed a spectacular rally for the next six months. That’s the whole point of this report; listen to the markets and ignore the predictions of the so called experts. Again, we will be relying on our Trade Triangle Technology and the technical approach to follow market trends in 2011.

4. GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS: Major Trade Triangles Bullish
I want to talk about the stock market, both in the US and overseas. One of the more interesting portfolios we created in 2010 was MarketClub’s “Global Strategy” portfolio that tracks five different countries. The MarketClub technique using the ETF markets has worked well for our members. We track the following five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and Australia. (This portfolio, which is available to all MarketClub members, can be seen here.) We also follow the ETF SPY as it tracks the S&P500. Once again, we use our Trade Triangle Technology to determine the trends in five ETFs.

5. COMMODITY MARKETS: Major Trade Triangles Bullish

Lastly, I want to talk about the commodity markets. You have no doubt heard or have seen that copper prices are at record highs, but you also have other markets that are jumping up and these are all anticipating both strong demand and are now in the beginnings of an inflationary spiral that we envisioned sometime back. Commodities are going to be very important in the future. Traders should be paying close attention to these markets and creating in a new portfolio manager with various commodity portfolios to track these lucrative markets. If you want to see how we have have performed in these markets you may want to take a look at MarketClub’s “World Cup” Portfolio. Since July of 2007, your money would have multiplied 786.16 %by June of 2010. That’s enough to turn $50,000 into $391,580.00 in just three years.

So maybe this is not as exciting or as hyped up as someone saying, “Here are my top five picks for 2011,” but it’s a way to make real money in 2011 and not without having to wing it like so many investors will be doing in the new year.

I think 2011 is going to offer some extraordinary opportunities in the markets listed above. Remember, in every crisis or every boom there are opportunities to make money. It’s when things are dull and boring that it becomes more difficult to produce the type of returns that we are looking for.

So what’s my number one tip for 2011? Watch and trade with the MarketClub’s Trade Triangle technology and ignore the hyped up new year predictions. Here’s wishing you every success in 2011.

Guest blogger Adam Hewison is the Co-founder of MarketClub/INO.com




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Let's Look at 2010 and What's Ahead For Us in 2011

No one can argue that 2010 was a fantastic year for traders. Yes there were some downs, with the economy and all, but trading wise it was outstanding!

I'm sure you've read an article or two that I've posted from Chris Vermeulen, but I have a little more unknown insight into his trading service and it's records...

This is his 2010 members only trading performance......its audited and 100% verified:

But there's something missing......

The last 5 closed trades and their results!
SPY 0.9%, Nov 12 - Nov 15
GLD 1.2%, Nov 4 - Nov 12
SPY 3.5%, Oct 27 - Nov 5
TBT 2.4%, Oct 21 - Nov 2
GLD (1.1%), Oct 19 - Oct 21

Second: He and his members currently have three open positions with the following gains.....

Open Position..........65%
Open Position..........28%,
Open Position............9%

Chris let me work a special set-up just for my members for 75% savings.....Just Click Here to check it out!



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Is Consumer Confidence and Housing Enough to Stop Crude Oil's Run?

No doubt that 2010 was no 2009 when it comes to oil prices with 2010 bringing a mere 14% gain compared to 2009's 78%. Can 2011 continue the run in the face of even worse consumer confidence reports in the U.S. and a larger than expected drop in home values as the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. property values reported a decline of 0.8 percent in October from a year earlier. If anything can bring down the commodity and equity markets in 2011 it's the much feared double dip in the U.S. housing market.

Say it can't happen? Like anything else in life, just follow the money. The smart money. Why are the banks refusing home loans without large cash down payments? Simple, because when issuing a loan it is really the bank that is investing in the home, not the home owner. The lender is only hoping the home owner will pay it off for THEM! Smart money [the banks in this case] know that the homes are not worth the current prices even as low as they are, making a double dip inevitable.

We know what this will do for consumer confidence in the U.S. but will it stop China and India's rapid expansion and continued increase in energy demand? Unlikely, welcome to the new world economy. Here's your trading numbers for Wednesday morning......

Crude oil was lower due to light profit taking overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the rally off November's low, May's high crossing at 93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 89.45 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 91.07. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 93.87. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 90.08. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 89.45. Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 90.94.

Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.295 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If February renews this month's decline, November's low crossing at 3.913 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.295. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.554. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.985. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.913. Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.240.

Gold was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends Tuesday's rally, this month's high crossing at 1432.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1361.6 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1410.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1432.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1361.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1352.00. Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning is 1398.70.


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Free MarketClub Gold Alert!

Tuesday morning MarketClub issued an "enter long" for short term traders with a GREEN Daily “Trade Triangle” @ $1,387.72. Trade Triangles for intermediate and long term traders continue to remain in long positions.


If you are not yet a member of MarketClub see what you are missing with our 30 Day Risk Free trial and receive 3 valuable bonuses just for giving us a try.


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