Thursday, May 28, 2009

Hard To Believe, But Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Near Term Advantage


July crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.44
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.17
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.11
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi,

What do you think about a short if MACD reaches 0,7 on the Hourly-chart? Might happen around 67$

Crude Oil Trader said...

I think the MACD is important......the MACD in the dollar! It's all about the dollar right now. I only day trade crude and for Friday I will be looking for a short in the 68+ range. Staying with the trend I will be buying small dips to go long into that area.