Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Extending This Spring's Rally


July crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.42 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 62.50
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49

First support is today's low crossing at 59.53
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.42

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The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.67 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.51
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.67

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77

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The June S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 910.90
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20

First support is today's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

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