Crude Oil, Divorce, and Bear Markets

By Tony Sagami

Everybody loves a parade. I sure did when I was a child, but I’m paying attention to a very different type of parade today. The parade that I’m talking about is the long, long parade of businesses in the oil industry that are cutting jobs, laying off staff, and digging deep into economic survival mode. The list of companies chopping staff is long, but two more major players in the oil industry joined the parade last week.

Pink Slip #1: Houston-based Dresser-Rand isn’t a household name, but it is a very important part of the energy food chain. Dresser-Rand makes diesel engines and gas turbines that are used to drill for oil.
Dresser-Rand announced that it's laying off 8% of its 8,100 global workers. Many Wall Street experts were quick to point the blame at German industrial giant Siemens, which is in the process of buying Dresser-Rand for $7.6 billion.

Fat chance! Dresser-Rand was crystal clear that the cutbacks are in response to oil market conditions and not because of the merger with Siemens. The reason Dresser-Rand cited for the workforce reduction was not only lower oil prices but also the strength of the US dollar.

If you’re a regular reader of this column, you know that I believe the strengthening US dollar is the most important economic (and profit-killing) trend of 2015.

Pink Slip #2: Oil exploration company Apache Corporation reported its Q4 results last week, and they were awful. Apache lost a whopping $4.8 billion in the last 90 days of 2014.

No matter how you cut it, losing $4.8 billion in just three months is a monumental feat.

Of course, the “dramatic and almost unprecedented” drop in oil prices was responsible for the gigantic loss, but what really matters is the outlook going forward.

CEO John Christmann, to his credit, is taking tough steps to stem the financial bleeding, and that means:

• Shutting down 70% of the company's drilling rigs.

• Slashing it's 2015 capital budget to between $3.6 and $5.0 billion, down from $8.5 billion in 2014.

Those aren’t the actions of an industry insider who expects things to get better anytime soon.

I don’t mean to bag on Dresser-Rand and Apache, because they’re far from alone. Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Weatherford International, and ConocoPhillips have also announced major layoffs. And don’t make the mistake of thinking that the only people getting laid off are blue-collar roughnecks. These layoffs affect everyone from secretaries to roughnecks to IT professionals.

In fact, according to staffing expert Swift Worldwide Resources, the number of energy jobs lost this year has climbed to well above 100,000 around the world.

From Global to Local

Sometimes it helps to put a local, personal perspective to the big-picture national news.

In my home state of northwest Montana, a huge number of men moved to North Dakota to work in the Bakken gas fields. Montana is a big state; it takes about 14 hours to drive from my corner of northwest Montana to the North Dakota oil fields, so that means those gas workers don’t make it back to their western Montana homes for months.

Moreover, the work was six, sometimes seven days a week and 12 hours a day, so once there, they couldn’t drive back home even if they wanted to. This meant long absences… and a good friend of mine who is a marriage counselor told me that the local divorce rate was spiking because of them.

Now the northwest Montana workers are returning home because the once-lucrative oil/gas jobs are disappearing. That news won’t make the New York Times, but it’s as real as it gets on Main Street USA.

From Local to National

Of course, the oil industry's woes aren’t a carefully guarded Wall Street secret. However, I do think that Wall Street—and perhaps even you—are underestimating the impact that low oil prices are going to have on economic growth and GDP numbers going forward.

Let me explain.

Industrial production for the month of January, which measures the output of US manufacturers, miners, and utilities, came in at a “seasonally adjusted" 0.2%.

A 0.2% gain isn’t much to shout about, but the real key was the impact the mining component (which includes oil/gas producers) had on the industrial-production calculation.

The mining industry is the second-largest component of industrial production, and its output fell by 1.0% in January. It was the biggest drag on the overall index.

However, the Federal Reserve Bank said, “The decline [was] more than accounted for by a substantial drop in the index for oil and gas well drilling and related support activities.”

How much did it account for? The oil and gas component fell by 10.0% in January.

Yup, a double-digit drop in output in just one month. Moreover, it was the fourth monthly decline in a row.
Last week’s weak GDP caught Wall Street off guard, but there are a lot more GDP disappointments to come as the energy industry layoffs percolate through the economy. Here’s how my Rational Bear readers are getting ready for GDP and corporate-earnings disappointments that are sure to rattle the markets.
Can your portfolio, as currently composed, handle a slowing economy and falling corporate profits? For most investors, the answer is “no.” Click above to find out how to protect yourself.



Tony Sagami

30 year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here.

To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.

The article Connecting the Dots: Oil, Divorce, and Bear Markets was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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Obama’s Secret Pipeline

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

Isn’t it odd that an 800 mile pipeline that runs across environmentally sensitive land has been permitted without any mention in the media? Not a word about it from President Obama either.

Obama’s Secret Pipeline will be built over land that’s much more sensitive than that of the Keystone XL pipeline, which gets nothing but front page coverage. It will actually be 17% (six inches) larger in diameter than Keystone XL (36 inches) and it will transport natural gas, not oil.

Bill 138

The Senate of Alaska, the state in which the pipeline will be built, has just passed Bill 138, which makes the state a partner of three of the world’s largest oil companies, including one that has a horrible environmental track record on U.S. soil. In a nutshell, Alaska’s government is now partners with BP, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips.

Only one more signature is required—Governor Sean Parnell’s—and it’s expected that he will sign the deal.

Not Even the US Government Wants US Dollars

For more than 100 years, the U.S. government has been receiving a royalty and tax revenue paid on the amount of oil or natural gas produced on American soil—a fee that is paid in U.S. dollars. Bill 138 has changed this forever.

Instead of Alaska receiving its dues in U.S. dollars, the state legislature has decreed through Bill 138 that the state will be paid “in kind.” In other words, the state will be getting its share of royalty and tax revenue in natural gas instead of U.S. dollars.

For the record, this is the first time ever that a US state has entered into a partnership like this. Essentially, Alaska is now a 25% equity partner with BP, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips—which also requires the state to cough up cold, hard cash to build the entire project, including the 800 mile long, 42 inch wide pipeline.

Overall, the project is currently estimated to cost north of U.S. $50 billion, and we expect that when all the capital expense overruns and government inefficiencies are accounted for, the whole project will come in at more than U.S. $75 billion, using the total costs of similar projects for comparison.

But it will be 2015 before the final negotiations and the specific details of the partnership are agreed on, and remember, the devil is in the details. Who do you think will get the better end of the deal—a bunch of government bureaucrats with zero oil and gas experience, or the world’s top oil and gas producing companies? I know whom I’m betting on.

Which leads us to the point of this weekly missive.

And the Winner of Obama’s Secret Pipeline Is…

We already know which company will be building and operating Obama’s Secret Pipeline. The company I’m talking about has a lower price to earnings (P/E) ratio and a better yield than all of its peers. That’s good, because shareholders get paid a monthly yield for owning the stock while sitting back and watching the share price rise as well.

The Ultimate Oil Toll Booth

Think of it this way: this company charges the world’s most powerful oil and gas producers for every barrel of oil that passes through its “road network,” and now it can also charge the state of Alaska. Regardless of the price of oil or natural gas, this company gets its fee.

It’s a low-risk way to benefit from a high risk enterprise. This company is a current Buy in our Casey Energy Dividends portfolio. The Energy team is currently working hard on the upcoming issue, which will in detail cover the company that’s bound to gain big from Obama’s Secret Pipeline.

I know you haven’t heard about this pipeline yet, but you will soon enough.

That’s what we do here at the Energy Division of Casey Research: We’re the first to uncover breakthrough stories, and the first to uncover the best energy investment opportunities in the world. Doug Casey and I just got back from a whirlwind European tour, where we visited many of Europe’s most promising energy projects.

Here’s a picture of Doug Casey and me at Europe’s largest onshore drill site. This drill rig is 15 stories high and uses about 16,000 liters of diesel a day to turn the drills—which Doug and I are holding in this picture. As a side note, just the crank shaft that we’re holding costs U.S. $2 million—this rig is expensive and gigantic.

For you to get a better perspective on the true size of Europe’s largest onshore drill rig, here is a picture of Doug Casey and me with our friends Frank Holmes, Frank Giustra, and Matt Smith.

(From far left to right: Frank Holmes, Doug Casey, Marin Katusa, Frank Giustra, Matt Smith)

 

Do Your Portfolio a Favor and Try Out the Casey Energy Report

Doug Casey and I have done all the hard work for you. The current issue of the Casey Energy Report is a compilation of our Europe trip, including in-depth descriptions of our site visits and a new recommendation with a hugely promising project in an out-of-the-way European country that we personally checked out. The company is backed by mining giant Frank Giustra, and you bet he knows what he’s doing.

The Casey Energy Report comes with a free one year subscription to Casey Energy Dividends (a $79 value), including, of course, the upcoming May issue with our “Obama’s Secret Pipeline” pick.

There’s no risk in trying it: You have 90 days to find out if it’s right for you—love it or cancel for a full refund. You don’t have to travel 300+ days a year (as we do) to discover the best energy investments in the world—we do it for you.

If you don’t like the Casey Energy Report or don’t make any money within your first three months, just cancel within that time for a full, prompt refund. Even if you miss the cutoff, you can cancel anytime for a prorated refund on the unused part of your subscription. Click here to get started.

The article Obama’s Secret Pipeline was originally published at Casey Research

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More earnings reports.....ExxonMobil [XOM], ConocoPhillips [COP], Hercules Offshore [HERO] and Occidental Petroleum [OXY]

Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports 1st quarter EPS of $2.12 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $108.8B misses by $11.03B. E&P earnings declined 9.8% to $7.04B as total oil and natural gas production fell 3.5% Y/Y to 4.395M boe/day. Refining and marketing earnings fell 2.6% to $1.55B while refining driven margins increased earnings by $780M. Chemical profits rose 62%; corporate and financing expenses fell sharply due to "favorable tax impacts." Shares -0.5% premarket.

Chairman Rex W. Tillerson comments....“ExxonMobil achieved strong results during the first quarter of 2013, while investing significantly to develop new energy supplies. ExxonMobil’s financial performance enables continued investment to deliver the energy needed to help meet growing demand, support economic growth, and raise living standards around the world......Read the entire ExxonMobil earnings report.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today reported first-quarter 2013 earnings of $2.1 billion, or $1.73 per share, compared with first-quarter 2012 earnings of $2.9 billion, or $2.27 per share. First-quarter 2012 reported earnings included $0.7 billion from downstream operations prior to the separation of Phillips 66 on April 30, 2012.

Excluding special items, first-quarter 2013 adjusted earnings were $1.8 billion, or $1.42 per share, compared with first-quarter 2012 adjusted earnings of $1.8 billion, or $1.38 per share. Special items for the current quarter primarily related to asset sales and discontinued operations.

Following previous announcements to dispose of the company’s interests in Kashagan and the Algeria and Nigeria businesses, the associated earnings and production impacts for these assets have been reported as discontinued operations. This decreased adjusted earnings for first-quarter 2013 by $62 million, or $0.05 per share......Read the entire ConocoPhillips earnings report.

Hercules Offshore (Nasdaq: HERO) today reported net income of $35.2 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, on revenue of $205.3 million for the first quarter 2013, compared with a net loss of $38.3 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, on revenue of $143.3 million for the first quarter 2012. First quarter 2013 results include a non-cash tax gain of $37.7 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, relating to the Seahawk acquisition which was completed in April 2011.

John T. Rynd, Chief Executive Officer and President of Hercules Offshore stated, "Market conditions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remain strong, as dayrates continue to trend higher and contract backlog stays near record levels. Our first rig reactivation, the Hercules 209, is nearing completion, and we are assessing market demand for a second reactivation. Internationally, we continue to add scale and upgrade our global fleet. We recently commenced operations on the Hercules 266 under its long term contract, and closed on the acquisitions of the Hercules 267 (formerly Ben Avon) and the White Shark (formerly Titan 2).

These acquisitions demonstrate our ability to successfully deploy capital toward high return opportunities, while de-risking the investments with assets that have strong long term demand prospects and through long term contracts. We continue to look for acquisition opportunities to enhance our international footprint and high-grade our asset base"......Read the entire Hercules Offshore earnings report.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) announced income from continuing operations of $1.4 billion ($1.69 per diluted share) for the first quarter of 2013, compared with $1.6 billion ($1.92 per diluted share) for the first quarter of 2012. Net income for the first quarter of 2013 was also $1.4 billion ($1.68 per diluted share).

In announcing the results, Stephen I. Chazen, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "Our first quarter domestic production of 478,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 342,000 barrels per day were liquids, set a record for the tenth consecutive quarter. Our total company production of 763,000 barrels of oil equivalent in the first quarter of 2013 was 8,000 barrels higher than production in first quarter of 2012.

"We executed well in the first quarter and to date are running ahead of our full-year objectives in our program to improve domestic operational and capital efficiencies. We have reduced both our domestic well and operating costs by about 19 percent relative to 2012. Overall, we generated cash flow from operations of $2.9 billion before changes in working capital for the first quarter of 2013 and invested $2.1 billion in capital expenditures"......Read the entire Occidental Petroleum earnings report.

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Chevron Phillips Chemical Signs Letter to Study Iraq Plant

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Iraq and Chevron Phillips Chemical Co., a joint venture of Chevron Corp. (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP), signed a letter of intent to evaluate the feasibility of developing a petrochemical plant in the country, officials said.

The company would examine building a new facility and upgrading an existing Iraq owned petrochemicals factory in southern Basra province, Hanaa al-Husseini, a spokeswoman for the Industry and Minerals Ministry, said today in Baghdad.

Melanie Samuelson, a spokeswoman for Chevron Philips, said in an e-mailed statement that the company, with headquarters in The Woodlands, Texas, wants to assess “the feasibility of developing an integrated petrochemical complex.” Both Chevron Phillips and the ministry declined to give additional details, including cost estimates or dates for the project.

Read the entire Bloomberg article.


New Video: Detailed Commodities Analysis From Chris Vermeulen

ConocoPhillips Reports First Quarter Earnings

ConocoPhillips [NYSE:COP] today reported first quarter earnings of $2.9 billion, compared with first quarter 2011 earnings of $3.0 billion. Excluding $330 million of special items, first quarter 2012 adjusted earnings were $2.6 billion. Special items were primarily related to gains on asset dispositions, partially offset by impairments and repositioning costs.

“We operated according to plan during the first quarter of 2012, achieving production and refinery utilization targets,” said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer. “We continued to progress our asset divestment program and execution of our major projects and growth plans. We also accomplished several repositioning milestones, including obtaining a favorable IRS ruling and final board of directors’ approval. Beginning May 1, 2012, our company will become two leading, independent energy companies, ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66.”

Just click to read the entire earnings report 

Here is todays free trend analysis for COP

ConocoPhillips Unloads $1.5 Billion in Vietnam Assets to PetroVietnam

PetroVietnam Monday placed a $1.5 billion bid Monday to buy ConocoPhillips' Vietnamese oil assets in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, according to a Reuters report.

The move is considered to be the Hanoi based oil and gas group's official attempt to acquire the assets in effort to protect the city's territorial claims of the waters. Vietnam, Japan and the Phillipines continue to protest China's claim of territorial authority of the South China Sea.

If PetroVietnam's bid is accepted, the oil and gas group would take control of.......

23.3% stake in Su Tu Den oilfield in five oil fields located in the Cuu Long basin bock
15-1. 36% stake in the Rang Dong field in Block 15-2. 16.3% stake in the Nam Con Son gas pipeline that connects the Nam Con Son basin with southern Vietnam.

The sale of the assets is part of Houston based ConocoPhillips' March 2010 plan to divest non core assets to reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns.


Get your FREE Trend Analysis for ConocoPhillips

ExxonMobil 3rd Quarter Profits Soar 41%

ExxonMobil's third quarter earnings surged 41% as the oil giant continued to benefit from high oil prices and stronger refining margins. Shares were up 1.4% at $82.20 in premarket trading as the results topped estimates.

The world's largest publicly traded oil company by market value has reported stronger results in recent quarters thanks to high oil prices and improved refining performance. Investors are watching this week to see how much of a drag, if any, recent oil price volatility and renewed concerns about the global economy will put on the sector's recent surge in profits.

ConocoPhillips posted a jump in adjusted third quarter profits on Wednesday, though charges weighed down the bottom line. Chevron is expected to post strong profits on Friday.

ExxonMobil reported a profit of $10.33 billion, or $2.13 a share, up from $7.35 billion, or $1.44 a share, a year earlier. Revenue increased 32% to $125.33 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters most recently forecast earnings of $2.12 a share on revenue of $113.56 billion.

Exploration and production earnings grew 54% amid higher prices for oil and natural gas, partly offset by a production decline of 4%. Refining and distribution business earnings were up 36% amid stronger refining margins. ExxonMobil said it spent $5.5 billion for stock repurchases, buying back 72 million shares. The total included $5 billion of buybacks to reduce shares outstanding.


Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com


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Who is Producing How Much Crude Oil?

So what is the pecking order for oil production in 2011? Here is a chart produced by our friends at ConocoPhillips.

Lukoil, Investors Buy $2.4 Billion of Company's Shares From ConocoPhillips

Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil producer not controlled by the state, together with a group of investors bought almost 5 percent of Lukoil’s shares from ConocoPhillips [COP] for $2.4 billion, the Moscow based company said.

Lukoil and the investor group bought 42.5 million shares in the form of American depositary receipts at a price of $56 each. The purchase, arranged by UniCredit Bank AG, was for less than half of an 11.6 percent holding that ConocoPhillips had made available under an option that expired yesterday, Lukoil said in an emailed statement.

The deal aims at enhancing the company’s attractiveness to investors. “It allows us to support our share prices, since the transaction is funded by the group’s internal resources, without increasing the company’s total debt,” Lukoil Vice President Leonid Fedun said in the statement today.....Read the entire article.

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

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Conoco's 2nd Quarter Profit Soars, Plans To Sell Entire Lukoil Stake

ConocoPhillips' (COP) second quarter earnings more than quadrupled on higher commodities prices and as its refining business returned to profitability, with results topping expectations. The company also reached an agreement to sell about 40% of its stake in Russian oil giant OAO Lukoil Holdings (LUKOY, LKOH.RS) and unveiled plans to sell all of it by the end of next year, instead of prior plans to just halve it. Conoco agreed to sell the initial part of its 20% stake in Lukoil for $3.44 billion. The deal is set to close in the current quarter. The rest will be sold to either Lukoil or on the open market.

Conoco, the third largest U.S. oil company by market value after Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX), is in the midst of a major restructuring program that includes plans for $10 billion in divestitures in an effort to repay debt, a shift from a debt fueled acquisition spree when commodities prices were soaring. It reported a profit of $4.16 billion, or $2.77 a share, up from $900 million, or 57 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest quarter included a net $1.10 a share in gains. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings of $1.56 a share. Conoco didn't provide revenue figures.

Exploration and production, which accounts for most of the company's profits, saw earnings soar on higher prices, though, as average daily oil and gas production fell 7.5% amid normal field declines and planned maintenance. Conoco's refining business profit also soared as margins strengthened and utilization rates improved. Refiners have benefited as demand for gasoline and diesel began to improve this year, though the sustainability is highly uncertain. Shares closed Tuesday at $54.44 and were inactive premarket. The stock is up 6.6% this year.

From the.....Dow Jones Newswire.

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