Showing posts with label COP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COP. Show all posts

Friday, November 6, 2015

Jared Dillian is Pulling Out All the Stops

By Jared Dillian


When I was a teenager, I had a different sort of part-time job. I was a church organist. Actually, it was the best job ever because I was something of a piano prodigy as a child. Around age 12, my parents and I had to make a conscious decision about whether I was going to pursue a career in music. I decided not to, which has greatly reduced the amount of Ramen noodles I have eaten over the years.At age  13, I decided I wanted to play the organ. I took lessons from the organist in the big Catholic church downtown. What an incredible instrument!

Playing the organ is a lot harder than it looks. In case you hadn’t noticed, there is a whole keyboard at your feet—yes, you play with both your hands and your feet. And since you can’t possibly learn all the hymns, you have to be really good at sight-reading three lines of music at once. It takes a great deal of coordination. Plus, you have two or more “manuals” (keyboards) and dozens of stops, which activate the different sounds in the organ. This is where the phrase “pulling out all the stops” comes from.

So I got a job as the organist at the Unitarian church down the street. For the first and only time of my life, I was a member of a union—the American Guild of Organists. I received my union-protected minimum wage of $50 per service, which is a great deal of money if you’re 16 years old in 1990. $50 a week definitely put gas in my car. And there was a girl in the congregation that I dated a couple of times.

I felt sorry for my poor schlep classmates who were bagging groceries for $4/hour. They had to work 12 hours to make what I made in one. I felt pretty smug.  The high point was when I transcribed the theme from “A Clockwork Orange” and played it as the prelude for one of the church services. You can see where the subversive streak comes from.

I Got Skills

So why did I make more than 12 times what my high school classmates made? Because my skills were worth 12 times as much. Bagging groceries is kind of the definition of unskilled labor. Literally anyone can bag groceries. The supply of labor that has those skills is limitless.

Church organists are in slightly higher demand. But not by much! I think a church organist these days—if you are hired by the church to play every week, plus run all the choir and music programs, probably pays about $35,000 to $50,000 a year, depending on the church. So not a lot!

It’s a decent living if you like playing the organ, but you also have to deal with church politics. The wages of an organist not only depend on the supply of labor but the demand for labor as well. And church construction has gone way down in recent years. Not to mention the fact that the latest fad in religious services is “contemporary music.”


However, the fact that church organists make more money than grocery baggers does reflect the level of skill the occupation requires. Before I became a church organist, I had been playing either the piano or organ for six years. Six years of practicing 30 minutes to an hour a day, every day.

Nobody practices bagging groceries for 30 minutes a day, every day.

I don’t particularly like manual labor (though I have done it on occasion). That’s why I do my best to acquire skills that are rare and marketable so I don’t have to do things like chip paint. In this country (and others), we have this unhealthy obsession with manual labor. Politicians talk about “working Americans” all the time. We say things like “putting in a hard day’s work.” The most popular car is the Ford F-150. Who wants to put in a hard day’s work? Not me! Instead, I will put in a hard day’s thinking.

Hate and Discontent

A lot of people spend too much time thinking about what other people make. It’s unproductive. Everyone thinks Wall Street guys are overpaid, for example. Okay, so let’s take your average ETF option trader at a bank. Say he makes $500,000 a year (which might even be generous these days). Let’s examine one trade of many that he is confronted with on a daily basis. A sales trader stands up and yells to him, “20,000 XLE Jan 75 calls, how?”

What’s happening here is that a client is asking for a two-sided market on the January 75 call options in XLE, which is the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF, 20,000 times, which means options on 2,000,000 shares, or about $140,000,000. It’s a big trade, definitely, but there are bigger ones. So let’s think of all the things the option trader needs to know. He needs to know what an option is, starting from scratch.

He needs to know what XLE is, that it’s an energy ETF, and he should have a good idea of what stocks are in the portfolio. He might have a cursory knowledge about factors affecting supply and demand for crude oil. In order to come up with a price for these options, he has to have an idea of what implied volatility should be and what realized volatility might be going forward.

This requires a knowledge of an option pricing model like Black-Scholes and many, many years of college mathematics, including probability theory and differential equations. He needs to know how he is going to hedge this option. Will he hedge the delta all in the stock? Will he hedge with other options? How will he dynamically hedge the trade until maturity? Will he lay off some of the risk in other strikes? Will he buy single stock options on some of the names in the index, like XOM, CVX, or COP, to effect a dispersion trade?

This means he has to know what a dispersion trade is. More math. He also needs to understand liquidity. What will be his execution impact by trying to sell 800,000 shares of XLE? This affects how wide he makes his market. And best of all, he needs to think about all of these things in a split-second, without hesitation. If he is off by even a penny—he loses money on the trade. I would characterize that as “skilled labor.” And we haven’t even talked about the emotional fortitude it takes to take that kind of risk. $500,000 a year seems low.

CEOs

People get the most upset about executive pay. Here you have some dillweed CEO who is the direct beneficiary of the agency problem. If company XYZ does well, he gets paid millions. If it does poorly, he gets fired and loses nothing, personally. We say that he has no skin in the game.

Well, do you have what it takes to run one of the 500 largest companies in the world?

Pretend we’re talking about McDonald’s. Many people think McDonald’s is doing a terrible job. There’s a lot of evidence that they are. They’re losing market share to Chipotle and lots of other “fast casual” restaurants.

But running a company is hard enough. You have 50,000 odd restaurants, you have to manage supply and distribution for this massive network, you have to do all the managerial science behind what is on the menu and how much it costs, you have to directly negotiate, and I mean meet with leaders of foreign governments, you need to go on CNBC from time to time and not be a mutant, and above all, you need to lead inspirationally.

Not many people can do all that. I can’t. Maybe I’m smart enough, but I don’t have the emotional maturity or even the desire for that kind of responsibility. Everyone wants to be the boss, but nobody really wants to be the boss. If you think you are underpaid—maybe you are. The labor market is not perfectly efficient. Anomalies can persist.

Take a look at people who you think are overpaid. What are they doing that you aren’t? Maybe you just aren’t willing to do those things (like kiss lots of ass). The responsibility is yours and yours alone. And that, my friends, is something nobody wants to hear.
Jared Dillian
Jared Dillian

If you enjoyed Jared's article, you can sign up for The 10th Man, a free weekly letter, at mauldineconomics.com

The article The 10th Man: Pulling Out All the Stops was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.


Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Obama’s Secret Pipeline

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

Isn’t it odd that an 800 mile pipeline that runs across environmentally sensitive land has been permitted without any mention in the media? Not a word about it from President Obama either.

Obama’s Secret Pipeline will be built over land that’s much more sensitive than that of the Keystone XL pipeline, which gets nothing but front page coverage. It will actually be 17% (six inches) larger in diameter than Keystone XL (36 inches) and it will transport natural gas, not oil.

Bill 138

The Senate of Alaska, the state in which the pipeline will be built, has just passed Bill 138, which makes the state a partner of three of the world’s largest oil companies, including one that has a horrible environmental track record on U.S. soil. In a nutshell, Alaska’s government is now partners with BP, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips.

Only one more signature is required—Governor Sean Parnell’s—and it’s expected that he will sign the deal.

Not Even the US Government Wants US Dollars

For more than 100 years, the U.S. government has been receiving a royalty and tax revenue paid on the amount of oil or natural gas produced on American soil—a fee that is paid in U.S. dollars. Bill 138 has changed this forever.

Instead of Alaska receiving its dues in U.S. dollars, the state legislature has decreed through Bill 138 that the state will be paid “in kind.” In other words, the state will be getting its share of royalty and tax revenue in natural gas instead of U.S. dollars.

For the record, this is the first time ever that a US state has entered into a partnership like this. Essentially, Alaska is now a 25% equity partner with BP, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips—which also requires the state to cough up cold, hard cash to build the entire project, including the 800 mile long, 42 inch wide pipeline.

Overall, the project is currently estimated to cost north of U.S. $50 billion, and we expect that when all the capital expense overruns and government inefficiencies are accounted for, the whole project will come in at more than U.S. $75 billion, using the total costs of similar projects for comparison.

But it will be 2015 before the final negotiations and the specific details of the partnership are agreed on, and remember, the devil is in the details. Who do you think will get the better end of the deal—a bunch of government bureaucrats with zero oil and gas experience, or the world’s top oil and gas producing companies? I know whom I’m betting on.

Which leads us to the point of this weekly missive.

And the Winner of Obama’s Secret Pipeline Is…

We already know which company will be building and operating Obama’s Secret Pipeline. The company I’m talking about has a lower price to earnings (P/E) ratio and a better yield than all of its peers. That’s good, because shareholders get paid a monthly yield for owning the stock while sitting back and watching the share price rise as well.

The Ultimate Oil Toll Booth

Think of it this way: this company charges the world’s most powerful oil and gas producers for every barrel of oil that passes through its “road network,” and now it can also charge the state of Alaska. Regardless of the price of oil or natural gas, this company gets its fee.

It’s a low-risk way to benefit from a high risk enterprise. This company is a current Buy in our Casey Energy Dividends portfolio. The Energy team is currently working hard on the upcoming issue, which will in detail cover the company that’s bound to gain big from Obama’s Secret Pipeline.

I know you haven’t heard about this pipeline yet, but you will soon enough.

That’s what we do here at the Energy Division of Casey Research: We’re the first to uncover breakthrough stories, and the first to uncover the best energy investment opportunities in the world. Doug Casey and I just got back from a whirlwind European tour, where we visited many of Europe’s most promising energy projects.

Here’s a picture of Doug Casey and me at Europe’s largest onshore drill site. This drill rig is 15 stories high and uses about 16,000 liters of diesel a day to turn the drills—which Doug and I are holding in this picture. As a side note, just the crank shaft that we’re holding costs U.S. $2 million—this rig is expensive and gigantic.


For you to get a better perspective on the true size of Europe’s largest onshore drill rig, here is a picture of Doug Casey and me with our friends Frank Holmes, Frank Giustra, and Matt Smith.

(From far left to right: Frank Holmes, Doug Casey, Marin Katusa, Frank Giustra, Matt Smith)

 

Do Your Portfolio a Favor and Try Out the Casey Energy Report

Doug Casey and I have done all the hard work for you. The current issue of the Casey Energy Report is a compilation of our Europe trip, including in-depth descriptions of our site visits and a new recommendation with a hugely promising project in an out-of-the-way European country that we personally checked out. The company is backed by mining giant Frank Giustra, and you bet he knows what he’s doing.

The Casey Energy Report comes with a free one year subscription to Casey Energy Dividends (a $79 value), including, of course, the upcoming May issue with our “Obama’s Secret Pipeline” pick.

There’s no risk in trying it: You have 90 days to find out if it’s right for you—love it or cancel for a full refund. You don’t have to travel 300+ days a year (as we do) to discover the best energy investments in the world—we do it for you.

If you don’t like the Casey Energy Report or don’t make any money within your first three months, just cancel within that time for a full, prompt refund. Even if you miss the cutoff, you can cancel anytime for a prorated refund on the unused part of your subscription. Click here to get started.

The article Obama’s Secret Pipeline was originally published at Casey Research



Sign up for todays Free Trading Webinar "Why HFT Firms Have a Competitive Advantage"....Just Click Here!

 


Thursday, April 25, 2013

More earnings reports.....ExxonMobil [XOM], ConocoPhillips [COP], Hercules Offshore [HERO] and Occidental Petroleum [OXY]

Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports 1st quarter EPS of $2.12 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $108.8B misses by $11.03B. E&P earnings declined 9.8% to $7.04B as total oil and natural gas production fell 3.5% Y/Y to 4.395M boe/day. Refining and marketing earnings fell 2.6% to $1.55B while refining driven margins increased earnings by $780M. Chemical profits rose 62%; corporate and financing expenses fell sharply due to "favorable tax impacts." Shares -0.5% premarket.

Chairman Rex W. Tillerson comments....“ExxonMobil achieved strong results during the first quarter of 2013, while investing significantly to develop new energy supplies. ExxonMobil’s financial performance enables continued investment to deliver the energy needed to help meet growing demand, support economic growth, and raise living standards around the world......Read the entire ExxonMobil earnings report.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today reported first-quarter 2013 earnings of $2.1 billion, or $1.73 per share, compared with first-quarter 2012 earnings of $2.9 billion, or $2.27 per share. First-quarter 2012 reported earnings included $0.7 billion from downstream operations prior to the separation of Phillips 66 on April 30, 2012.

Excluding special items, first-quarter 2013 adjusted earnings were $1.8 billion, or $1.42 per share, compared with first-quarter 2012 adjusted earnings of $1.8 billion, or $1.38 per share. Special items for the current quarter primarily related to asset sales and discontinued operations.

Following previous announcements to dispose of the company’s interests in Kashagan and the Algeria and Nigeria businesses, the associated earnings and production impacts for these assets have been reported as discontinued operations. This decreased adjusted earnings for first-quarter 2013 by $62 million, or $0.05 per share......Read the entire ConocoPhillips earnings report.

Hercules Offshore (Nasdaq: HERO) today reported net income of $35.2 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, on revenue of $205.3 million for the first quarter 2013, compared with a net loss of $38.3 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, on revenue of $143.3 million for the first quarter 2012. First quarter 2013 results include a non-cash tax gain of $37.7 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, relating to the Seahawk acquisition which was completed in April 2011.

John T. Rynd, Chief Executive Officer and President of Hercules Offshore stated, "Market conditions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remain strong, as dayrates continue to trend higher and contract backlog stays near record levels. Our first rig reactivation, the Hercules 209, is nearing completion, and we are assessing market demand for a second reactivation. Internationally, we continue to add scale and upgrade our global fleet. We recently commenced operations on the Hercules 266 under its long term contract, and closed on the acquisitions of the Hercules 267 (formerly Ben Avon) and the White Shark (formerly Titan 2).

These acquisitions demonstrate our ability to successfully deploy capital toward high return opportunities, while de-risking the investments with assets that have strong long term demand prospects and through long term contracts. We continue to look for acquisition opportunities to enhance our international footprint and high-grade our asset base"......Read the entire Hercules Offshore earnings report.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) announced income from continuing operations of $1.4 billion ($1.69 per diluted share) for the first quarter of 2013, compared with $1.6 billion ($1.92 per diluted share) for the first quarter of 2012. Net income for the first quarter of 2013 was also $1.4 billion ($1.68 per diluted share).

In announcing the results, Stephen I. Chazen, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "Our first quarter domestic production of 478,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 342,000 barrels per day were liquids, set a record for the tenth consecutive quarter. Our total company production of 763,000 barrels of oil equivalent in the first quarter of 2013 was 8,000 barrels higher than production in first quarter of 2012.

"We executed well in the first quarter and to date are running ahead of our full-year objectives in our program to improve domestic operational and capital efficiencies. We have reduced both our domestic well and operating costs by about 19 percent relative to 2012. Overall, we generated cash flow from operations of $2.9 billion before changes in working capital for the first quarter of 2013 and invested $2.1 billion in capital expenditures"......Read the entire Occidental Petroleum earnings report.

Click here to download our latest version of the "Iron Condor Trading Strategy"

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

ConocoPhillips Suspends 2014 Alaska Drilling Plans

ConocoPhillips [COP] will place on hold its 2014 drilling plans for Alaska's Chukchi Sea due to the uncertainties of evolving federal regulatory requirements and operational permitting standards.

While the company is confident in its expertise and ability to safely conduct offshore Arctic operations, ConocoPhillips believes it needs more time to ensure that all regulatory stakeholders are aligned, said ConocoPhillips Alaska President Trond-Erik Johansen in a statement.

"We welcome the opportunity to work with the federal government and other leaseholders to further define and clarify the requirements for drilling offshore Alaska," Johansen commented. "Once those requirements are understood, we will reevaluate our Chukchi Sea drilling plans. We believe this is a reasonable and responsible approach given the huge investments required to operate offshore in the Arctic."

ConocoPhillips in 1998 was awarded 98 exploration lease tracts in the Chukchi Sea Outer Continental Shelf. The company is Alaska's largest oil producer and is operator of the Kuparuk and Alpine fields. ConocoPhillips' leases will expire in 2019. As of year end 2012, the company had invested $650 million net in its Chukchi Sea operations, including leases, seismic, biological studies and well planning, a ConocoPhillips spokesperson told Rigzone in an email.

Royal Dutch Shell plc in February suspended its 2014 offshore Alaska drilling plans, saying it needed more time to ensure the readiness of its equipment and employees for future drilling.

Last month, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) concluded that Shell failed to finalize key components of its 2012 Alaska Arctic drilling program. DOI called on the industry and government to collaborate to develop an Arctic specific model for offshore Alaska oil and gas exploration.

DOI Secretary Ken Salazar said the agency would proceed with ConocoPhillips using the same regime it did with Shell. While the Obama administration is interested in pursuing Arctic resources, Salazar said they wouldn't allow shortcuts in terms of requirements, and that exploration would only be carried out with the "utmost safety."

Greenpeace International called decisions by ConocoPhillips and Norway-based Statoil ASA to shelve Arctic drilling plans on admission that the oil industry is still not capable of meeting the enormous challenges posed by operating in the world's most extreme environment.

"The time has come for governments around the world to call for a permanent halt to the reckless exploitation of the far north," said Greenpeace International Arctic campaigner Ben Wycliffe in a statement.

Posted courtesy of the staff at Rigzone


The 2 Energy Sectors You Should Invest in This Year

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Offshore Oil Expansion Passes U.S. House as Obama Considers Veto

How To Position Yourself for a 10 Year Pattern Breakout

The Republican led U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation opening the California and Virginia coasts for offshore oil drilling, defying a presidential veto threat.

The measure, if approved by the Senate, would replace President Barack Obama’s 2012-2017 leasing plan, almost doubling total sales to 29 from 15 and speeding auctions off the north coast of Alaska.

“We can do better than the president’s proposed plan, and our nation deserves better,” said Representative Doc Hastings, a Washington Republican and bill sponsor. “By passing this bill, we are standing up for American energy and American jobs and moving our country forward.”

Republicans and the American Petroleum Institute, the largest trade group representing the energy industry, criticized Obama for limiting access to offshore resources after the record 2010 spill at a BP Plc (BP) well in the Gulf of Mexico.

The administration “strongly opposes” the measure and senior Obama advisers would recommend a veto, according to a July 23 statement of administration policy. The Senate, where Democrats have a majority, doesn’t plan to take up similar legislation.

The Interior Department has held two auctions for drilling leases since BP’s Macondo well blow out, killing 11 workers and spewing about 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

In an auction last month, Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) offered $406.6 million, or 24 percent of all winning bids, to drill in the central Gulf of Mexico, followed by Statoil ASA (STO) with $333.3 million, the Interior Department said June 20.

Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Apache Corp., LLOG Exploration Offshore LLC, Stone Energy Corp., Noble Energy Inc. and ConocoPhillips were among companies submitting winning bids, according to a list posted June 20 on the Interior Department website.

The bill is H.R. 6082.

Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News and Katarzyna Klimasinska. Katarzyna can be reached at kklimasinska@bloomberg.net

Monthly Long Term Chart Analysis & Thoughts

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Chevron Phillips Chemical Signs Letter to Study Iraq Plant

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Iraq and Chevron Phillips Chemical Co., a joint venture of Chevron Corp. (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP), signed a letter of intent to evaluate the feasibility of developing a petrochemical plant in the country, officials said.

The company would examine building a new facility and upgrading an existing Iraq owned petrochemicals factory in southern Basra province, Hanaa al-Husseini, a spokeswoman for the Industry and Minerals Ministry, said today in Baghdad.

Melanie Samuelson, a spokeswoman for Chevron Philips, said in an e-mailed statement that the company, with headquarters in The Woodlands, Texas, wants to assess “the feasibility of developing an integrated petrochemical complex.” Both Chevron Phillips and the ministry declined to give additional details, including cost estimates or dates for the project.

Read the entire Bloomberg article.


New Video: Detailed Commodities Analysis From Chris Vermeulen

Monday, April 23, 2012

ConocoPhillips Reports First Quarter Earnings

ConocoPhillips [NYSE:COP] today reported first quarter earnings of $2.9 billion, compared with first quarter 2011 earnings of $3.0 billion. Excluding $330 million of special items, first quarter 2012 adjusted earnings were $2.6 billion. Special items were primarily related to gains on asset dispositions, partially offset by impairments and repositioning costs.


“We operated according to plan during the first quarter of 2012, achieving production and refinery utilization targets,” said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer. “We continued to progress our asset divestment program and execution of our major projects and growth plans. We also accomplished several repositioning milestones, including obtaining a favorable IRS ruling and final board of directors’ approval. Beginning May 1, 2012, our company will become two leading, independent energy companies, ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66.”


Here is todays free trend analysis for COP

Monday, October 31, 2011

ConocoPhillips Unloads $1.5 Billion in Vietnam Assets to PetroVietnam

PetroVietnam Monday placed a $1.5 billion bid Monday to buy ConocoPhillips' Vietnamese oil assets in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, according to a Reuters report.

The move is considered to be the Hanoi based oil and gas group's official attempt to acquire the assets in effort to protect the city's territorial claims of the waters. Vietnam, Japan and the Phillipines continue to protest China's claim of territorial authority of the South China Sea.

If PetroVietnam's bid is accepted, the oil and gas group would take control of.......

23.3% stake in Su Tu Den oilfield in five oil fields located in the Cuu Long basin bock
15-1. 36% stake in the Rang Dong field in Block 15-2. 16.3% stake in the Nam Con Son gas pipeline that connects the Nam Con Son basin with southern Vietnam.

The sale of the assets is part of Houston based ConocoPhillips' March 2010 plan to divest non core assets to reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns.


Get your FREE Trend Analysis for ConocoPhillips

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Do You Understand The Conoco-Phillips Spin Off?

Guest blogger Tim McLeenan brings us answers to all of our questions on what the Conoco-Phillips [ticker COP] spin off will mean to investors.....

I was checking out the recent conference call that James Mulva, the CEO of Conoco-Phillips, conducted with analysts to discuss the company’s plans to split the company up in 2012, with one company focusing on Exploration & Production while the other one will focus on Refining & Marketing. While the list of disadvantages associated with any stock spinoff may be self-evident, the duplicate boards, management, and cost structures, the loss of diversification that gives a company the ability to rely on multiple business units during difficult times, and of course, reduced efficiencies, or whatever the correct term is to note the opposite of ‘synergy savings’ that companies always claim, will occur when two companies merge.

So investors need a reason to believe that a stock spinoff will actually provide something to investors that the combined company didn’t either capital appreciation in the form of P/E multiple expansion that a more focused company can achieve, higher growth, or an unexpected dividend boost that did not appear likely under the combined company.....Read the entire article.


Click Here to Get Your Free Trend Analysis For Conoco-Phillips

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Phil Flynn: The Dead Spread

Trying to explain the impact of the death of Moammar Ghadfi on oil might best be described as what I guess can now be called the "Dead Spread". Oh sure, you used to be able to call it the Brent crude oil West Texas intermediate spread but the way the spread has come in since the death of the murderous dictator, I guess "The Dead Spread" might be entirely appropriate.

The Brent/WTI spread almost became a household word in the conflict between Gaddafi loyalists and the Libyan rebels. Libyan crude is of a very high quality oil that found its nitch in Europe subbing for the production challenged North Sea brent crude. The loss of that crude created a void because European refiners accustomed to a regular flow of light crude failed to have the type of units needed to refine those heavier grades. The loss of that crude caused the Brent/WTI spread to go to a record high. Now coincidentally or not, the spread has come in dramatically since Mr. Gaddafi's demise.

In fact the spread has come in from an all time high of approximately $28.07 to a mere $18.97 as of this writing. With Gaddafi out of the way the hope is that Libyan oil will once again fill that void. Well early on that is even going beyond hope. Yesterday ENI told Dow Jones that the big elephant in the room, or Libya's giant Elephant oil and gas field in Libya, could restart as early as next month and that there was "no big damage". That field accounts for almost 25% of Libya's natural gas output. A resumption of that much oil that soon obviously could ease concerns that it will take "years" to get Libyan oil production back up to normal.

That not to say that there are not some tensions as Dow Jones reports of a strike at Waha Oil Co., Libya's largest oil partnership with foreign companies, is entering its eighth week after a failure to reach an agreement over the dismissal of Gaddafi era managers, staff at the company said. Dow Jones says, "Unrest at Waha, on which U.S. partners Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), Hess Corp (HES) and ConocoPhillips (COP) have previously declined to comment, is part of broader strife at some oil operations. It underscores the challenges still facing the country's oil industry despite the death of former ruler Moammar Gadhafi last week."

Yet at the same time the WTI has found strength as the US economy looks stronger than Europe and the decline of crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the Nymex WTI futures. While the world waits for Europe, data seems to suggest that the sparing over Greek haircuts (no, I am not talking about Telly Savalas) and bank rescue funds has zapped the confidence of Europe, increasing the odds of a recession.

It seems that market are also reacting to the spread sending light sweet crude to Europe as opposed to the formally oversupplied US. Gas and Oil Daily says, "Oil stockpiles in Cushing dropped 760,000 barrels to 28.1 million. The Energy Department said last week that Cushing inventories, including floating and fixed tanks, totaled 31.1 million barrels as of October 14th, down 26% from a peak of 41.9 million on April 8th." Bloomberg News says that crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, dropped 2.6 percent on Oct. 21 from Oct. 18, according to data compiled by DigitalGlobe Inc.

They say that stockpiles held in floating roof tanks at the hub fell 760,000 barrels to 28.1 million, satellite images taken by the Longmont, Colorado based company show. In other words, the market forces are starting to correct the anomaly between the spread as oil is seeking higher prices. That is reducing Cushing supply and more than likely increasing European supply.

What is also helping is that we are seeing an increase in Nigerian exports as well. Nigeria also has the very desirable light sweet grade of crude oil. Dow Jones says that Nigeria will export 7,950,000-barrel cargos of Bonny Light in December, one more cargo than in November. They report a total of 214,516 barrels a day of QuaIboe crude will be available in December, compared with 157,000 barrels a day in November, the program shows.

This should put more pressure on "The Dead Spread" as well. It also put the WTI market in backwardation for the first time since the financial crisis began. It seems that the market is worried that with all the oil ending up in Europe, supplies may tighten in the US. It is also showing a vote of confidence in the US economic growth outlook or at least a more pessimistic outlook for Europe.

Also with oil on fire yesterday William Dudley of the Fed, fed into the flames talking about QE3D! QE is bullish for oil and with the Dead spread out of whack we could see WTI try to attract supply. While WTI flies gas prices were mute as the Brent crude should help US imports of products. Mr. Dudley is sending a signal to the market that QE is back in play and most likely will be in the form of printing money to buy back mortgage backed securities. Very bullish for WTI oil!

The Energy Information Agency has some good news I suppose. They said that the national average retail price of regular gasoline is down 1.4c to $3.462 a gallon. Yahoo! Now not that I want to ruin that god feeling you had but they also want to remind you that prices are still 64.5c a gallon, or 22.9%, higher than they were a year ago.

Want some news that might warm your heart? Reuters News points out that the average of the first 12 months of New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures contracts slid to its lowest in nine years on Monday as growing supplies and moderate weather weighed on the complex. The 12 month futures fell 2.3 cents to settle at $3.923 per million British Thermal Units, the lowest settle since Nov. 15, 2002, when the average closed at $3.926, Reuters data showed. Despite record heat this summer that drove NYMEX front month gas to its 2011 peak near $5, record high gas production, primarily from shale, has been the main factor pressuring price expectations.

Phil Flynn

Get a trial of Phil's trade levels and elected option plays. Just email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com.

Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Who is Producing How Much Crude Oil?

So what is the pecking order for oil production in 2011? Here is a chart produced by our friends at ConocoPhillips.


Tuesday, November 30, 2010

ConocoPhillips Is Cheaper Than Rivals but Has Plenty to Prove

From Y Charts.Com......

Oil prices are creeping back up, mirroring the expanding (if still sickly) global economy, and so one wonders: which major oil company to buy?

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are well managed, diversified and trading at bargain prices, according to YCharts Pro Ratings. But ConocoPhillips (COP), which lags behind its bigger rivals, is by some measures even cheaper. All the company has to do is make good on its many promises, which, of course, is easier said than done.

On a price to sales basis, ConocoPhillips looks like a steal. Its p/e ratio is also super low. And if you’re making comparisons to bond yields, ConocoPhillips’ earnings yield puts most junk bonds to shame. All that disrespect by investors means ConocoPhillips’ dividend yield is pretty rich, too. Why so cheap? Well, ConocoPhillips carries a higher debt load than its bigger rivals. And it holds less cash, though recent sales of LUKOIL shares have fattened the cash account.

And even though the company is eight years into the merger of Conoco and Phillips, there are signs it’s still working to get its act together. CEO James J. Mulva, though he’s nearing age 65, swept much of top management out the door in early October, bringing in some outside talent. And Mulva is pushing a financial strategy, reduced capital expenditures, debt reduction, rising buybacks and dividends, that seems like the right idea, but perhaps a little late in arriving.

ConocoPhillips has more oil and gas properties around the world than it can reasonably develop, so it is selling some to raise cash and pay down debt. Super, though the assets might have fetched more when oil prices were sky high a few years back. And like all major oil companies, ConocoPhillips faces the daunting task of replacing the oil and gas it pumps and sells each year, a task that is growing ever riskier and more expensive.

So, when oil prices surge, and they will, you might get a little extra bounce with shares of unloved ConocoPhillips, though Exxon and Chevron will certainly rise, as well. Warren Buffett bought ConocoPhillips in the low $70s, so you can buy it more cheaply. The Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) CEO overpaid because oil prices soon fell. But relative to other major oil companies, did he see a bargain?

Here's the Y charts showing the comparison to Exxon and Chevron


Share

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Major Oil & Energy Earnings On Deck

This is the peak of earnings season and the flow of earnings is coming on strong. This week is jammed full of energy companies reporting earnings and it will be interesting to see how these companies compare against last year’s earnings and after the September rise in oil prices. Of the integrated oil giants, we have ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) this week. Solar is far from being a true energy sector of yet in the grand scheme of things when you see how little of the overall energy comes from it, but industry leader First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is on deck this week.

We have compiled the Thomson Reuters earnings estimates, shown price ranges and performance relevance and added in color on each where applicable. We have also added in the oil and gas ETF performance in the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG) for a comparison on how each has performed.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reports its oil earnings Wednesday morning. Thomson Reuters has estimates for the oil giant of $1.45 EPS and $45.59 billion in revenues. Estimates for the quarter ahead are $1.36 EPS and $46.99 billion in revenues. With shares at $61.34, the stock just hit a new 52 week high of $61.88 on Friday and hit a new 52 week high on Monday of $62.63. The market cap here is $91.3 billion and the average analyst price target is $62.00. Shares are up more than 10% from the August lows......Read the entire article.



Share

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

How to Buy Risky Energy Stocks

Dan Dicker, senior contributor at TheStreet, reveals how to buy energy stocks in your 20's.



Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Conoco's 2nd Quarter Profit Soars, Plans To Sell Entire Lukoil Stake

ConocoPhillips' (COP) second quarter earnings more than quadrupled on higher commodities prices and as its refining business returned to profitability, with results topping expectations. The company also reached an agreement to sell about 40% of its stake in Russian oil giant OAO Lukoil Holdings (LUKOY, LKOH.RS) and unveiled plans to sell all of it by the end of next year, instead of prior plans to just halve it. Conoco agreed to sell the initial part of its 20% stake in Lukoil for $3.44 billion. The deal is set to close in the current quarter. The rest will be sold to either Lukoil or on the open market.

Conoco, the third largest U.S. oil company by market value after Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX), is in the midst of a major restructuring program that includes plans for $10 billion in divestitures in an effort to repay debt, a shift from a debt fueled acquisition spree when commodities prices were soaring. It reported a profit of $4.16 billion, or $2.77 a share, up from $900 million, or 57 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest quarter included a net $1.10 a share in gains. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings of $1.56 a share. Conoco didn't provide revenue figures.

Exploration and production, which accounts for most of the company's profits, saw earnings soar on higher prices, though, as average daily oil and gas production fell 7.5% amid normal field declines and planned maintenance. Conoco's refining business profit also soared as margins strengthened and utilization rates improved. Refiners have benefited as demand for gasoline and diesel began to improve this year, though the sustainability is highly uncertain. Shares closed Tuesday at $54.44 and were inactive premarket. The stock is up 6.6% this year.

From the.....Dow Jones Newswire.

Share

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Conoco Says Australia Could Be Biggest LNG Exporter


Australia could become the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by 2020, the head of ConocoPhillips' (COP) Australian unit said Thursday. The comments came as Chevron Corp. (CVX) said it has signed three binding sales agreements to supply nearly three million tons a year of LNG from the proposed Gorgon project in Western Australia state to Japanese and Korean energy companies. ConocoPhillips Australia President Joseph Marushack said that a final investment decision is still expected to be made for its massive Gladstone LNG joint venture in Queensland state with Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AU) by the end of 2010, with first gas to be shipped in 2014.....Read the entire article

Monday, September 7, 2009

BP: Best in Class

Stephanie Link, director of research for Action Alerts Plus Portfolio, argues that BP's recent oil discovery provides much needed growth potential.



Get a current trend analysis for BP.....Just Click Here!

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Investors Focus On Exxon, Unemployment


Perhaps the biggest earnings announcement Thursday will come from oil giant Exxon Mobil and investors want to know how energy companies are deploying their money in a time of wildly volatile oil prices. So far it's been a rocky earnings season for oil firms. Last year oil was at $125 a barrel around this time, twice what it is today. On Wednesday Hess and ConocoPhillips both posted steep drops in quarterly profits. Analysts expect Exxon to announce earnings of $1.02 a share before the bell Thursday, down from $2.27 last year.....Complete Story

A Good Trading Education = a Good Trader = Good Profits….Watch INO TV

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Sets Up Lower Open Wednesday

Crude oil closed slightly lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this spring's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.87
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.90

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Monday, June 1, 2009

Some Things Never Change, Another Summer Of Rising Gas Prices

Just like every other summer, gas prices will likely be rising. Gas prices will likely be a thorn in the side of consumers who are starting to feel more optimistic about the U.S. economic recovery.