Bloomberg: Crude Oil Rises as U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves

Crude oil rose for a fourth day on reports as U.S. consumer confidence improved, signaling the economy is recovering, and rising tension in the Middle East. Futures capped a third weekly gain as the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index beat expectations and the Conference Board’s leading economic indicators climbed more than forecast. Prices also gained as Hezbollah threatened to retaliate if Israel attacked Iran and security concern grew in Syria and Lebanon.

“The economic data are getting better,” said Jacob Correll, a Louisville, Kentucky-based analyst at Summit Energy Inc., which manages more than $20 billion in companies’ annual energy spending. “You have a lot of tension ratcheting up in the Middle East and oil’s been having a rally”....Read the entire Bloomberg article.

Test drive our video analysis and trade idea service for only $1.00

Dian Chu: A Tale of Crudes.....Anybody Got A Big Rig?

From guest blogger By Dian L. Chu at the EconForecast......

On Wednesday, Feb. 16 Israel said Iran is sending two warships into the Suez Canal on way to Syria, and that the action is considered a “provocation.” Due to the long history of bad blood between Israel and Iran, this very possible scenario was enough to even send the bear infested NYMEX crude oil futures volume surging midday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Nymex rose to just below $85, while Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange spiked $2.17 higher to $103.81 a barrel, a 29 month high, widening the WTI Brent spread to a new record near $19.

High Middle East Tension

Then on Friday, Feb. 18, AFP reported that permission has been granted for Iranian warships to transit the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean. Canal officials say it would be the first time Iranian warships have made the passage since the 1979 Islamic revolution, while Israel has labeled the Iranian action as "hostile' and said Israel was closely monitoring the situation.
As the worst Israel-Iran conflict scenario failed to materialize, at the close Friday Feb. 18, Brent crude oil for April settled at $102.79 while WTI for April delivery rose to $89.71, narrowing the spread to $13.11.

Crude Glut at Cushing, OK

Since WTI is lighter and sweeter crude which requires less processing, it has historically enjoyed a $1 – $2 a barrel price premium to Brent crude oil. According to Bloomberg, the WTI Brent gap averaged only 76 cents last year.

However, WTI’s premium disappeared about a year ago and in recent days it has been trading at more than a $10/bbl discount to Brent mainly due to rising inventory levels at Cushing OK, the delivery and price settling point of Nymex crude futures.....Click Here to Read The Entire Article and View Dian's Charts.



Share

Horizon Ships First Oil From Oil Sands Project, Kuwait Cancels 2.1 Billion Deal, Israel Looks To Start Drilling In April 2009

"Oil Falls as Dollar's Gain Against the Euro Reduces Appeal of Commodities"
Crude oil fell from a three month high as the dollar climbed against the euro, decreasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment....Complete Story

"Zion Oil Anticipates Drilling Commencement in Israel by April 2009"
Zion anticipates that the drilling rig contracted for the Ma'anit-Rehoboth No. 2 well will arrive in Israel, clear customs and be fully rigged-up to begin drilling in April 2009....Complete Story

"Fluor Says Kuwait Halts Refinery Project, Canceling $2.1 Billion in Orders"
Fluor Corp. said the Kuwait National Petroleum Co. canceled its contract for the Al-Zour refinery project and the remaining $2.1 billion in work will be removed from first-quarter backlog....Complete Story

"Horizon Oil Sands Project Ships First Oil"
North Sea operator Canadian Natural Resources has shipped the first cargo from its Horizon Oil Sands project. CNR said the first shipment of synthetic crude....Complete Story

Crude Oil Industry Headline News

"Gaza Aftermath May Impact Israel Oil Pipe Development"
Israel's offensive in Gaza will certainly have an effect on the country's status as an energy corridor, experts say....Complete Story

"Phase II Starts on Chevron's Tahiti, Cameron Catches Subsea Contract"
Cameron has received an order worth approximately $83 million for the supply of subsea production systems for Phase II of Chevron's Tahiti subsea development in the Gulf of Mexico....Complete Story

"CNOOC Cites Strong Production Growth, Anticipates Busy Schedule in '09"
CNOOC anticipates a busy schedule in the engineering, development and production sector in 2009, with over 20 development projects under construction....Complete Story

"DNO Posts December Production Results for Yemen, Iraq"
DNO has reported its fourth quarter and December 2008 production together with a summary of ongoing drilling activities for its Middle East operations....Complete Story

Reasons To Be Bullish On Crude Oil

With crude oil prices dropping on lower demand there seems to be crude bulls coming out of the woodwork. Why? There are plenty of reasons.....

Reason One.....
It appears that the recent OPEC production cuts are starting to be effective.

Reason Two.....
With Hamas rocket attacks on Israel finally being responded to, natural gas controversy in Europe and civil war in Nigeria the geopolitical front is having an obvious effect.

Reason Three....
The Bush administration and the current Energy Department has begun scheduling the purchase of crude oil over the next few months to replace oil drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves during last years hurricane season. This could add up to 25 million barrels this year alone.

Reason Four...
The Chinese government has announced that it will be buying another 19 million barrels for the own reserves over the next few months. They will also complete the next phase of construction on storage facilities adding another 170 million barrels of storage capacity.

For now the trend has shifted sideways to higher for crude oil. But ultimately, regardless of all of these reasons to be bullish, the U.S. and now the Chinese consumer remains in the driver seat, literally.