Phil Flynn: Bailout Bounce

There is nothing like a big bailout to get energy traders' minds off of the dangerous world we live in. Oil prices are defying a stronger dollar as the market is rallying on the news that Europe finalized a 67.5 billion Euro bailout of Ireland and created a plan that could have bondholders taking haircuts to help pay for their solvency.

Yet oil may also be getting a geo-political bounce as tension rise in the world and I am not just talking about the Korean Peninsula. A revelation from Wiki-Leaks may add to tensions in the Middle East and perhaps even threaten the delicate peaceful balance that sort of exits there. Reuters News reported that, “Saudi King Abdullah has repeatedly urged the United States to attack Iran’s nuclear programs, according to a vast cache of diplomatic cables released on Sunday in an embarrassing leak that undermines U.S. diplomacy.

The more than 250,000 documents, given to five media groups by the whistle blowing website Wiki Leaks, provide candid and at times critical views of foreign leaders as well as sensitive information on terrorism and nuclear proliferation filed by U.S. diplomats, according to The New York Times. The White House condemned the release by Wiki Leaks and said the disclosures may endanger U.S. informants abroad.” It could also create tension in the OPEC cartel as Iran may try to retaliate against Saudi Arabia in some way.

The Saudis already have their hands full fighting Al-Qaeda and other terrorist rightfully fear a nuclear armed state sponsor of terror like Iran. The Saudi King in the leaked memo said that the US should, “cut off the head of the snake”. It’s good to be back! Make sure you are signed up for Phil's daily trade levels! He can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com. Also make sure you catch Phil on the Fox Business Network where you can see him every day!


Get Started Trading Now.....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

Share

Phil Flynn: Happy Thanksgiving!

Well I guess we have one thing to be thankful for this Thanksgiving, oil prices are coming back down. All right it’s something and it was hard to find that silver lining especially after the week that we have had. It seems the world has gone crazy and there are new risks around every corner and these risks have conspired to bring oil prices back down.

Now can you enjoy your turkey? It was only weeks ago that oil bulls were basking in the intoxication of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing the sequel. The oil market topped $88.00 a barrel, it was a suckers rally as the market felt confident that all was well as the Fed had the markets' back. What was there to worry about? Tell after the Fed minutes we find out there is plenty to be worried about. The Fed’s grim economic outlook and a sense that perhaps some members of the Fed are questioning fed policy, have helped reduce some oil trader’s optimism about QE2 inspired oil demand.

The Fed lowered its forecast for 2010 GDP down to 2.4 to 2.5% from their previous estimate of 3 to 3.5%. For 2011 they expect GDP between 3% and 3.6%, down from 3.5% to 4.2% previously. As far as 2012 when the market expects rates will finally increse GDP projection is little changed while the new 2013 projection is put at 3.5-to-4.6%. The Fed also downgraded expectations for the unemployment rate which were raised for 2011 to a rate, 8.9% to 9.1% is expected. In 2013, the jobless rate is still seen between 6.9% and 7.4%.

What’s even more of a concern is the members of the Fed may not be on board with all of the printing of money. The Fed Minutes said that participants......Read the entire article.


Get My Free Weekly Index & Commodity Forecast

Share

Phil Flynn: Crude Oil Is Shell Shocked

North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean Island is raising fears of a global catastrophe and the impact on oil might be dramatic. Overnight in what is being called the most aggressive attack since the Korean War Cease fire back in 1953 North Korea's shelling of South Korea is shaking up global commodity markets. Oil prices are falling with traders seeking safe haven in the US dollar as they wait and try to figure out just what the heck is behind North Korea's aggressive action. North Korea, without provocation, decided to shell a South Korean Island and as reported by the New York Times.

“North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire on Tuesday after dozens of shells fired from the North struck a South Korean Island near the countries’ disputed maritime border. Two South Korean soldiers were killed, 15 were wounded and three civilians were injured", said Kiyheon Kwon, an official at the Defense Ministry. Reuters News reported, “South Korea has warned North Korea it would “sternly retaliate” to any further provocations. There may be a lot of reasons for North Korea’s action. Perhaps it is because their secret nuclear weapons facility was exposed. That led to reports that South Korea’s defense minister saying that South Korea might again might hoist......Read the entire article.




Share

Phil Flynn: Ben Versus The Dragon

The Chinese moved to increase interest rates and Big Ben Bernanke struck back defending quantitative easing and bashing the Chinese. Ben forced the issue with QE2 and now the Chinese are forced to raise rates! Now the question is will the Chinese rate hikes keep coming or will it be too little too late to cool their hot inflation? Right now I would say it’s bordering on too little too late. Ben Bernanke lashed out at China saying they are causing global problems by preventing their currency from strengthening while their economy booms.

It’s just like what I said in my article in the upcoming issue of SFO Magazine when I wrote, “The Fed felt it had no choice (but to print more money,QE2) as the U.S. government moved slow to attack a rising budget deficit and at the same time face an imbalance as the Chinese continue to manipulate their currency." Chinese currency manipulation may help them in the short run yet it could sow the seeds of economic problems in the future.

The Chinese may feel that they have to cheat the world to be successful by controlling their currency but the truth is that if they want to maintain their meteoric economic growth over the long run they would be better served by allowing the market, not the government, to moderate their economy. Chinese currency manipulation is creating a bubble that will burst if they make a misstep, causing major pain the future. Right now that may be hard to imagine as everyone on the globe is so bullish on China yet the recent correction and history is a reminder that things can......Read the entire article.


Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today

Share

Phil Flynn: Shake It Off!

Can the global commodity markets shake off the threats of Chinese rate hikes? Well today they are going to try. Still yesterday the oil markets ignored a very bullish oil inventory report after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that he and the state council were drafting measure to address inflation. This led to the belief that interest rates in China may go up dramatically and curtail that oh so precious Chinese oil demand... Not Even a massive drop in US oil supply was enough to deter the market from going lower.

The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by a whopping 7.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 357.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Oil Exports and Low imports and refinery maintenance are the reason for the draws. The strikes in France are still taking a toll on our supply. Bloomberg News China International United Petroleum & Chemical Co., the nation’s largest oil trader, plans to boost diesel imports for a second month in December to ease a domestic shortage of the transport fuel.

China International, or Unipec, plans to import 120,000 tons for December delivery, compared with......Read the entire article.


Free Weekly Low Risk Stock Picks

Share

Phil Flynn: The Commodities Got It In All Directions

Crude oil bulls got slapped everywhere they looked as a rate hike in Europe, weak manufacturing data in the US and growing concerns about Ireland's debt problems slammed commodities across the board. Perhaps the Fed knew that things are not that rosy and they were right to print all of that money.

Now with inflation running wild in China, the market knows that the Chinese are going to have to tap on the breaks, striking a major blow to global oil demand expectations. Over the longer term this is another critical time in this oil market when the price failed to capitalize and follow through on a breakout to new highs. Just 5 days ago oil hit a new 2 year high bring out a chorus of $100 a barrel predictions that many said that we would see by the end of the year.

These calls seem to me to be the same predictions we heard in the beginning of the year as oil hit 8395, a post economic crisis at least until the Dubai crisis sent oil price hurling back down to below $70.00. Then a UAE 10 billion dollar rescue plan and all was well in the oil market. Oil surged and hit a new high of 8715 in May and the $100 a barrel predictions were heard quite loudly.

That was before the Greece debt crisis which brought oil back down to 6424. Then of course it was the EU to the rescue with a massive bailout package and oil recovered slowly back to the eighties before settling back into the low......Read the entire article.

Share

Phil Flynn: QE2 Or Not To QE2 That Is The Question

While the Fed printing presses continue to roll interest rate worries are seemingly dominating the direction of the oil market. While the Federal Reserves prints more money rates continue to raise giving surprising strength to the dollar and putting downward pressure on oil. The Chinese stock market got hammered overnight after The Bank of Korea worried about inflation raided their base interest rate by a quarter points to 2.50%. The move means that more than likely China will not be too far behind as countries across Asia are reacting to a major onslaught of inflationary pressures.

In the mean time the markets are focused on the problems in Europe. EU members want Ireland to take their money as they fear that Irelands debt problems could spread to other countries. Ireland ion the other hand says that they are fine and is telling the EU that they do not need their help. Yet the EU feels that the fallout from Ireland’s debt could drive up borrowing costs in other PIIG countries especially Portugal, Italy and Spain. The EU is saying please take the money. Of course all of this global intrigue is impacting the......Read the entire article.

Watch > What a Difference a Week Makes....Is It All Over For Gold?

Share

Phil Flynn: China Bubble Means Potential Commodity Trouble

China has enough inflation problems already but the Fed and their policy of quantitative easing may be forcing the Chinese to take more aggressive steps to subdue inflation. Commodities across the board plunged when the “Economic Daily” reported on its website that an economic researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that the Chinese central bank may raise interest rates twice, on time late this year and again early next year. According to Bloomberg News the country’s consumer prices may grow 4 percent in November and December, pushing full year inflation to 3.2 to 3.3 percent, the report said.

It's expected that China’s consumer prices may grow at 4.7 percent next year. This caused bulls to take stock of their overbought markets and caused a wave of aggressive profit taking. The Chinese is of course the main driver of commodity demand. Commodity and oil bulls look to China as their justification to ignore a global glut of supply. The market had been inspired with a slew of improving demand forecasts such as the one from The International Energy Agency which increased its 2010 oil demand growth forecast by 190,000 bpd to 2.34 million bpd from its previous monthly report on stronger demand in both China and other industrialized economies. The Fed's QE2 is adding to these inflationary pressures.

Hot money is flowing to emerging markets and if China fails to moderate inflation it could create the potential for overcapacity. This emerging market mania has also been helped along by China’s stubborn refusal to allow their currency to reflect its true value. The Chinese, by controlling their currency, runs the risk of creating another major economic crisis if they allow their bubble to pop. Their signals are hopefully telling the world that are prepared to increase interest rates. Maybe they are starting to get it. If the Chinese fail to act quickly enough then the world should get prepared for another bubble to pop.

Make sure you get signed up for a trial of Phil's market trades. Just call him at 800-935-6487 or email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com. Also make sure you are watching the Fox Business Network where you can see him every day!




Share

Phil Flynn: G-20 And The Price Of A Barrel

Crude oil hit a two year high as US product and oil exports soar, but perhaps the eventual fate of oil and its price level really will be determined by the action or the inaction from the G-20 nations. Imports and exports will be on their mind as China and the US are at a standoff as to whose policies are a bigger threat the global economic recovery.The Chinese really love QE2 because it really takes the focus off of them for being the only currency manipulator.

Of course the Chinese policy of restraining their currency may help them in the short run but it could also be the seeds of their economic problems in the fore. The Chinese may feel that they have to cheat the world to be successful by controlling their currency, but the truth is if they want to maintain their meteoric economic growth over the long run, they would be better served by allowing the market not the government to moderate their economy.

The truth is that the Chinese current manipulation is creating a bubble in their own economy that will burst at some point in the future. And eventually cause major pain for them in the future. Right now of course that may be hard to imagine as everyone on the globe seems to be so bullish on China that they cannot see the major flaw in this story that is staring us right in the face.

The risk of their bubble bursting is increasing everyday yet they refuse to allow their currency to float. You seein a way the Chinese currency manipulation was just as much a factor in the global economic meltdown as was the Fed and the US government’s ill fated Fannie and Freddie excesses......Read the entire article.

Share

Phil Flynn: Is QE2 A Sin?

The Fed may be trying to save the economy with the printing of more money but the poor battered US consumers are so far bearing the brunt of this economic policy and let’s face it, it is a SIN. At the last Fed meeting the Fed famously said that it was, “prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time”. What they didn’t want to tell you was that time was now. It was President Gerald Ford that wore Famous “Win” button which stood for “Whip Inflation Now”. The Fed now should wear a “SIN” button which stands for “Start Inflation Now” and the way the commodities markets have responded, it’s probably time that the Fed start doing penance and a few Hail Mary’s. Because let’s face it, this QE2 is basically a Hail Mary pass.

You see if the Fed policy does not shock and awe the economy out of its stupor, then we may have printed 2.1 trillion dollars for nothing and the only thing that we may have to show for it is higher prices of commodities. With an economy that is still struggling, those higher prices that may kill the consumer. You see it seems that not only is gold and silver rising but those esoteric inflation items that like to be swept under the rug and ignored by some economists are rising as well, like food and energy. Not to mention the proverbial and actual shirt off your back. Have you checked out cotton prices lately? Cotton prices are up 100 percent this year, gold up 29%, soybeans up 27%. QE2 hopes to create economic activity but the consumers may have to pull back as their wallets get squeezed. Take a look for example at the stats on gasoline. Gas prices soared, rising from a national average.......Read the entire article.



Share

Phil Flynn: Dollar Drubbing And Hot Commodities!

QE2 anger around the world continues to grow leading one to wonder if someone in the world might want to say that the United States is a currency manipulator. How will the Chinese get even with us for our dollar printing ways? Well the easy answer is to just buy more commodities. The hot money is pouring in as the dollar gets wacked and commodities take off again. Hedge funds bullish positions in oil hit a 4 year high as they have no other choice but to react to the bullish actions of the Fed. No one should blame speculators for driving up prices because the Fed gave the hedge funds no choice. The Chinese have no choice either as the Fed action may force them into another commodity buying binge.

The Chinese are already stockpiling oil and panic buying in cotton and other commodities may start to take the place of buying US debt. Why lose money on a deckling dollar when you can make money holding gold, silver or corn! There is also some concern on the Brent side that North Sea crude production could fall. Short report today due to computer issues. Still you can always get the latest news by calling me at 800-935-6487 or email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com . You can also catch Phil on the Fox Business Network where you can see him every day!


Share

Phil Flynn: I Was Dreaming When I Wrote This

Forgive me if it goes astray, but when I woke up this mornin', could sworn it was judgment day. The sky was all purple, there were bulls running' everywhere. Trying' to run from the destruction, you know they didn't even care. 'Cuz they say the QE2 billion zeros printed party started, oops out of time! So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929. I was dreaming' when I wrote this, the markets ran so fast, but commodities are just a party, and parties weren't meant to last, there is danger all around us, my mind says prepare fly, but for now we must enjoy it and party like its 1929. Yeah, everybody's got a printing press and we could all die any day. But before I'll let that happen, I'll dance my life away. So tonight we gonna, we gonna (Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929) Say it 1 more time

Two trillion dollars printed. Oops out of time. No, no. So tonight we gonna, we gonna (Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1929). Let's get this party started! The Fed is coming out so let’s get this party stared! Forget about the Fed taking away the punch bowl, let’s face it they are trying to get everybody drunk and wow what a party! Remember when the Fed thought that irrational exuberance was a bad thing? With QE2 they want to get us woozy and keep us feeling that way. Of course sometimes when you are drunk you kind of forget about the consequences of the hangover when you wake in the morning.

Stocks hit two year high the highest level since Lehman brothers went belly up. Gold hit a record high! Oil is at the highest level since April! Silver soars! Beans trying for the teens! Forget about tomorrow, live for today and just keep drinking and don’t worry about the consequences. Just as long as we don’t have to wake up. Hyper Inflation! Forget about it! Struggling consumers racked with unemployment and food and energy bills! Who cares! How about deflation in......Read the entire article.



Share

Phil Flynn: Inflation Is Good For You

As expected the Fed pumped more money into the economy and seemed to do just enough to exceed market expectations. The Fed said that they would maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. They will do this to the tune of about $75 billion per month. While the estimates of what the Fed would do were all over the board, the average was for the Fed to do $500 billion. The Federal Reserve was very aware of market expectations and aware that the market had priced that 500 billion with the massive move that we saw in commodities and to a lesser extent stocks.

It was clear that the Fed wanted to exceed the expectations so we would not sell the fact and take away some of the inflationary expectations they had built into this market. That's right. Inflation is not the worst thing in the world. At least that's what Ben Bernanke says and he is making it clear that worries about his policies creating inflation are over blown. He says that QE1 did not spark inflation and he does not expect that QE2 will either. In an op-ed with the Washington Post he tries to explain why he did what he did.

He says that, “The Federal Reserve's objectives, its dual mandate set by Congress, are to promote a high level of employment and low, stable inflation. Unfortunately, the job market remains quite weak; the national unemployment rate is nearly 10 percent, a large number of people can find only part time work, and a substantial fraction of the unemployed have been out of work six months or longer. The heavy costs of unemployment include intense......Read the entire article.


Get The Gold and Oil Guy Free Weekly Index & Commodity Forecast

Share

Phil Flynn: Crude Oil After QE 2

People are finally starting to get it. And that is that the Federal Reserve policy moves markets and that quantitative easing drives up the price of oil. Most had never heard the term "quantitative easing" when the Fed made their move to print money the first time in March, 2009. The Fed made this move to try to save the economy from what they thought was leading us to a deflationary depression. For those of you who still need enlightening, quantitative easing is basically the monetary policy of last resort. When even zero percent interest rates fail to generate economic activity, the central banks flood the banks with excess cash reserves by buying back paper debt the banks hold with freshly printed money.

The hope is therefore, that these banks will in turn lend that freshly printed money to businesses and you and I, who in turn will expand and spend, thereby, hopefully, hire people and create more jobs. It also hopes to take away that deflationary mood by devaluing the U.S. dollar making commodities more expensive. Quantitative easing by the Fed is the greatest economic story of modern times. Back in 2009 when I tried to explain this concept, many looked at me as if I was from outer space. QE was a mystery to them and all they could figure was it was those evil oil and commodity speculators that were driving up prices. Prominent oil bulls went as far as saying the value of the dollar had nothing to do with the value of crude.

They seemed to believe that the sudden surge oil was due to the world hitting its peak ability to get oil that was running out. Others railed against speculators saying they caused the run up in prices yet failed to mention the dollar or the financial crisis when they spewed their diatribe to anyone who would listen, even Congress. Now of course the world is more familiar with the inflationary impact of quantitative easing. In fact if they were not, well they got a crash course after the last Fed meeting......Read the entire article.


Get My Free Weekly Index & Commodity Forecast

Share

Phil Flynn: Giving OPEC Too Much Credit

When Ali Naimi speaks the markets listen but should they? Some gave credit to yesterday’s big rally in oil to comments by the “Alan Greenspan” of oil, the de facto leader of the OPEC cartel, Ali Naimi, who said that oil was in a comfortable range between $70 and $90. Some took that to mean that Mr. Naimi was hoping for 90 barrel oil. Or could it be that oil rallied because China’s data was stronger than expected. Or could it have been the the Federal Reserve and their major money printing binge. The truth is that oil popped on the data and gained more strength on the reports of the bomb going off in Athens, Greece.

OPEC is not the driving force in the oil market. In fact the man that the oil market listens to is Ben Bernanke and not Ali. Mr. Naimi's impact, like Greenspan's, is in the past not the present. Oil of course also listens to the Forex market. Overnight the Aussies shook up the global markets by a “pre-emptive” 25 basis point rate hike 4.75% its first rate increase since May. Natural gas prices lost ground. The main reason was that oil was higher.

The natural gas versus crude spread was very evident. Of course the fact that we have a global glut of gas may have weighed on market sentiment as well. Reuter’s News reported that according to the International Energy Agency the globe has a natural gas glut that could last for a decade. Reuters says that, “An existing natural gas glut could run for as much as 10 years, Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.

”If we assume the current level, the gas glut may go on for as long as 10 years, but there is uncertainty about how strong demand will be from China, so it could be much shorter," Tanaka told reporters in Singapore, where he is attending an industry meeting. Qatar, the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), said earlier it expected the global gas glut to end......Read the entire article.


How To Trade Market Sentiment

Share

Phil Flynn: Terror Premium Is A Cost Of Doing Business

What was striking in the Friday reports about the attempted mail bomb terror attack was the market's indifference. The market has already priced in a certain amount of terror possibilities and in a way we are paying for it every day. We are paying for it in the cost of insurance and freight and we are paying for it in terms of even higher commodity prices. It's sad that we have come to expect this type of evil in the world. Today oil is getting a boost out of strong data from China and India.

The Chinese official purchasing manager's index rose to a six-month high in October to 54.7 from 53.8 in September. The market was only looking for a 52.9 reading. The strong number brought back the risk appetite and rallied the oil and broke the dollar. The HSBC version came in at only 54.8 but did have one of the biggest month to month increases in history. With readings like these it is no wonder that China is trying to slow its economy down. The main driver for the market this week will be the Fed. Now everyone knows that the Fed and the size of its massive QE2 program and how it is implemented will be the main factor in the pricing of oil and all other commodities.

People are finally getting the fact that it has been the Fed and the different phases of this economic crisis that has driven the cost of oil, NOT SPECULATORS! US product exports should be strong again in this week’s reports. Oil Inventories are still at the highest level since the 1930s! Look for crude to be down 2.0 million barrels, gas down 2.0 million, distillates down 2.5 and runs up 0.5.

Watch Phil on the Fox Business Network every day. And get his trades by calling him at 800-935-6487 or email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com.


Share

Phil Flynn: Spooky QE2

Oil, boil, toil and trouble, we’re going to print more money. Count Bernanke is out to suck more blood out us poor turnips as the Fed looks like QE2 might be a whopper after all! Hey wait a minute! What? Is it possible that the Fed and the upcoming Mid-Term elections are not scaring the oil bear anymore? Well at least for a day the oil market seemed more spooked about mounting supply and decreasing demand then any spell that the Fed was going to cast upon the economy. Despite weakness in the dollar and the most impressive gold rush in weeks, oil struggled to close higher on the day.

Perhaps the market is still coming to grips with the horror of this week’s big build in U.S. supply which, according to the Energy Information Agency, is the highest level ever ending the month of October sitting at 366.2 million barrels. Now that’s scary! Not only that, the supply numbers are daunting with concern that demand from Asia is weakening. Dow Jones news wires reported that India's crude oil imports fell 21.9% to 10.94 million tons in September, or 2.67 million barrels a day, from 14.01 million tons a year earlier. Crude imports were up 14% from 9.57 million tons in August.

But there is still some concern about Indian demand. India imports about three quarters of its crude oil for its demand needs. We know that the global oil market feeds off of China and India feeds off of China and in China this week they took more steps to slow energy demand. After increasing interest rates, the Chinese attacked oil demand directly by increasing the cost of diesel and gasoline by 3%. Now we do not know whether or not a 3% increase will significantly slow demand but it might. Now take into account rising OPEC production and a glut of spare production capacity around the globe and it is no wonder why the oil upward momentum has been limited.

Check Phil out on the Fox Business Network! And sign up for his trade buy and sell points by calling him at 800-935-6487 or emailing him at pflynn@pfgbest.com.



Share

Phil Flynn: Crude Surge!

Let’s forget all that quantitative easing stuff for a moment and focus on some of that old time supply and demand stuff. The Energy Information Agency reported that crude oil supplies hit the highest level ever, in this county, for this time of year. Well at least since the EIA has been tracking monthly data. After a whopper build of 5.0 million barrels, we see supply hit a hefty 366.2 million barrels which according to Dow Jones newswires is the highest level of supply at this time of year since 1931. To put that in perspective, that was a year when the “Model A” was the car of choice for many Americans and Herbert Hoover was President.

Of course this bounty of crude supply did not translate to gasoline supply which according to the EIA fell 4. 4million barrels last week and probably kept the entire petroleum complex from falling totally apart. Gas exports were a contributing factor as the strike in France created an increased demand for our supply. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day while imports a mere 1.0 million barrels per day. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, down by 0.8 percent from the same period last year.

Distillates, according the EIA, fell by 1.6 million barrels. If the French had not been siphoning off supply, that number might have been larger. The impact of the strike influenced our demand numbers which averaged 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 8.7 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 8.7 percent from the same period last year.

The EIA reported that refineries operated at 83.7 percent of their operable capacity last week and over all oil use hit the lowest level since December. Demand is still weak over all and may be restricted somewhat by the price spike caused by the QE2 threat! With oil trading in a tight trading range for the majority of this year it is time to get Phil's daily buy and sell points. Just call him at 800-935-6487 or email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com. You can also catch him every day on the Fox Business Network!


Share

Phil Flynn: Shock and Bore

Promises, promises, quantitative easing the act of printing money to add excess money supply to the banking system by central banks to create inflation to combat deflation has been the policy tool that the Federal Reserve has used to in their mind have us avoid a “Great Depression”. Of course with the economy still sputtering and jobs growth anemic the Fed wants to do it to you one more time. The talk of “Quantitative Easing 2” by your Federal Reserve has been the overriding global economic force that driven the price of just about everything on the globe whether it be commodities or equities or bonds.

The anticipation of the Fed’s awesome money printing power has had the world markets giddy with excitement as they search for clues how the Fed was going to wow this moribund economy into a vibrant job creating monster. Yet if the Wall Street Journal is right then instead of QE2 being compared to a luxury liner it appears now that the market may compare it to a dingy. The Wall Street Journal is moving markets by reporting that the Federal Reserve is likely to unveil a program of US Treasury Bond Purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months. A measured approach in contrast to.....Read the entire article.


Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!

Share

Phil Flynn: Currency Détente

All we are saying is give peace a chance. Global leaders on a collision course towards an all out currency war pulled back from the brink of conflict by vowing not devalue their respective currencies to try and help their export markets. Forget the fact that the US is on the precipice of a major announcement involving the printing of a bunch of greenbacks and China is looking around saying “who us?”.

The perception by the market place that the G20 will do nothing to stop a drubbing of the dollar is sending the yen soaring to a 15 year high and the oil and other commodities soaring in early trade. In fact you might wonder why the oil market is not even stronger than it is considering the fact that not only is the dollar giving us support, but also the impact on the strikes in France that are going to take a toll on US supply. The AP reports that, “French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde says the country's massive strikes are costing the economy up to euro400 million ($562 million) each day.

Protests over President Nicolas Sarkozy's plan to raise the retirement age from 60 to 62 have left France struggling with fuel shortages, travel chaos and uncollected garbage. Lagarde told Europe-1 radio Monday that the daily economic cost is between euro 200 million and euro 400 million. The minister also says the strikes are damaging France's image abroad......Read the entire article.




Share