Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

There's been plenty of traders calling for a bottom in most commodities this week....but not so fast. So there is no better time to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of last weeks commodity futures market and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 48.14 a barrel while currently trading at 47.90 down slightly for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last several months and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high which now stands at 51.41 as that will improve on a daily basis starting next week. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices higher in the short term and I think that will continue for quite some time as the U.S dollar still remains relatively strong despite today’s steep decline.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as deflation is a worldwide problem and has been over the last several years especially when the United States stopped there quantitative easing program which propped up all asset prices including most commodities. With the possibility of China slowing down the perception is that demand will also slow down so continue to place the proper stop loss which is just a little over $3 away as this trade as fallen out of bed over the last two months, but if you have missed this recommendation sit on the sidelines and look for another market that’s beginning to trend as you have missed the boat.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Get our latest FREE eBook "Learn How Human Emotions Produce Patterns in the Markets"....Just Click Here!

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 1,086 while currently trading at 1,194 experiencing a wild trading session this Friday afternoon with the U.S dollar trading sharply lower as I’ve been recommending a short position in the August contract as we rolled over into the December contract today so continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 1,110 an ounce. Gold futures have traded sideways for the last two weeks and looks to be forming some type of short term bottom, but I will stick to my trading rules and keep the proper stop loss as I still see no reason to own gold but if we are stopped out move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as we have been short from around the 1,170 level as prices have stalled out in recent weeks. The problem with the precious metals and gold in particular is the fact that all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is still hovering around all time highs as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the equity markets as I think that trend is to continue throughout 2015 and at this point I would rather own stocks than own gold so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Free Webinar Replay "How to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings"....Just Click Here!

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.49 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 up about $.30 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average as I’ve been short from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss at 14.99 which is the 10 day high as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Silver prices continue to bounce off of 14.50 as it looks to be forming a bottoming pattern but I will stick to my rules as we are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out as silver had a 40 cent trading range this Friday afternoon as the U.S dollar is down 100 points, however the trend is still lower and if we are stopped out move on and let’s find another market that’s beginning to trend as volatility is relatively low at the current time.

The Federal Reserve continues to want the inflation rate to hit 2% so they can start to raise interest rates but at this point there is very little worldwide demand for any commodity especially due to the fact that China looks to be falling off a cliff as they are the largest importer of commodities in the world and if you have not sold silver at this time the risk/reward is highly in your favor risking $.20 or $200 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as we will see what Monday’s trade brings.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures settled higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session settling last Friday at 122.25 a pound while currently trading at 125.30 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position from the 128 level and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 128.20 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. The next major level of support is the contract low around 120 but I still think we can retest the January 2014 lows of 105 and if you did not take the original trade I would still sell at today’s price as the risk is around 300 points or 1,200 risk per contract plus slippage and commission. I am currently recommending short positions in cocoa, sugar, coffee as volatility is relatively low but as a trend follower I will stick to my guns on this and continue to place the proper stop loss while maintaining the proper risk management strategy of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 11.24 a pound while currently trading at 11.16 basically unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 11.50 and if you took that recommendation the chart structure is outstanding at the current time so place your stop above the 10 day high at 11.72 risking around 50 points or $550 per contract plus slippage and commission. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and over 150 points below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside as oversupply and over production should continue to put pressure on prices despite the fact that the U.S dollar is down over 100 points but that’s still not supporting sugar prices at this time. The reason I decided to take this trade was the fact of extremely tight chart structure which lowers monetary risk as that met my criteria to enter into a trade as I still think that there’s a possibility that prices could break 10.00 a pound in the next several weeks so continue to play this to the downside as the risk/reward is highly in your favor in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a terrible week for the crude oil bulls. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of crude oil as well as the futures market. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the September contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling in New York last Friday at 51.21 currently trading at 48.45 down nearly $3 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last two months and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 54.00 a barrel.

The trend in the commodity markets is weak as everything seems to be melting down and remember as a commodity trader in my opinion you must trade with the trend so continue to play this to the downside. Crude oil has huge worldwide supplies coupled with a strong U.S dollar as I think prices will re-test the $45 level so continue to place the proper stop loss trying to get as much as 75% of the trend as picking tops and bottoms is impossible over the long haul in my opinion.

The stop loss will not improve for another week so you’re going to have to be patient as volatility currently is high and should remain so for weeks to come as I still believe prices are too expensive.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Get our latest FREE eBook "Learn How Human Emotions Produce Patterns in the Markets"....Just Click Here!

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,132 an ounce while currently trading at 1,082 down about $50 for the trading week continuing its remarkable bearish trend as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,160 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week.

Gold prices are trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the next level of support is around 1,050 as I think that could be tested in next week’s trade as there’s no reason to own gold and if you’ve been reading any of my previous blogs you understand how bearish I am of the entire commodity sector as a whole. Silver prices are also hitting a six year low as I’m also recommending a short position in that market as all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is slightly lower this afternoon as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and into the stock market and I don’t see that trend ending any time soon.

The U.S dollar is near a six week which continues to keep a lid on commodity prices coupled with the fact of higher U.S interest rates possibly coming later in the year as both act as negative influences on commodities historically speaking.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Free Webinar Replay "How to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings"....Just Click Here!

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 14.83 an ounce while currently trading at 14.33 down $.50 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high at 15.50 as the chart structure will improve starting next week. I sound like a broken record as I continue to recommend bearish commodity plays as deflation is the problem not inflation as a strong U.S dollar will continue throughout 2015 in my opinion as gold prices are sharply lower this week as I’ve been recommending a short position in that market as the commodity market looks to have another leg down in my opinion.

The problem with the precious metals and silver is the fact that all the interest lies in the S&P 500 which is right around its all time highs as nobody wants to own the precious metals as a safe haven as the trend is your friend and clearly the trend in silver is to downside with the next major support at $14 and if that’s broken who knows how low prices could actually go. Silver futures are trading below their 20 day and far below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside, however if you have missed the original recommendation sit on the sidelines and wait for the risk/reward to be in your favor which includes better chart structure.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday at 128.40 while currently trading at 122.00 down around 600 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 132.50 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week. The original recommendation was to sell around the 128 level as the chart structure at that time was outstanding as the risk/reward was is your favor however, if you have not taken this trade you’re going to have to wait for some type price rally before entering. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I think a possible retest of the January 2014 lows around 105 could happen in the weeks to come due to the fact with large worldwide supplies coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar versus the Brazilian Real so I remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Trading Options with "Small Lots"......Can be Done with Any Size Account

Sugar futures in the October contract settled in New York last Friday at 11.96 while currently trading at 11.34 hitting a six year low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away at 12.80 but I want to keep an eye on this market as the chart structure will improve next week as it looks like we will be playing this to the downside. Sugar futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the long term and short term trend remain intact as the commodity markets in general remain weak and if you’ve been following my blogs you understand that I’ve been recommending a short position in many different sectors, however a 150 point risk in sugar is too high as the risk/reward is not in your favor in my opinion but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as over supplies continue to keep a lid on prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a wild ride in the markets this week. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday at 52.74 a barrel while currently trading at 50.78 down about $2 for the trading week hitting a four month low while still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’ve been recommending a short position for six weeks and if you took that trade the 10 day stop has been lowered to 53.90 as the chart structure has improved tremendously.

Oil prices retreated this week due to the fact that of the Iranian deal which should put more oil onto the market down the road as 49 is major support and if that is broken you could have sharply lower prices ahead as oversupply issues still remain as the commodity markets still look weak due to the fact of a very strong U.S dollar which hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

The precious metals continue to make new lows as well as generally speaking metal prices and energy prices go hand in hand in the same direction and that direction is to the downside so continue to place the proper stop loss as this has been an outstanding trade over the course of time as are patience were tested but the path of least resistance is the successful way to trade in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Get our latest FREE eBook "Learn How Human Emotions Produce Patterns in the Markets"....Just Click Here!

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,158 an ounce while currently trading at 1,137 down about $20 for the week hitting a five year low as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss at the 10 day high which was lowered to 1,170 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis.

Gold prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices look to head lower as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I see absolutely no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as deflation is a worldwide problem as the U.S dollar hit a six week high in this week’s trade.

Crude oil prices are also continuing their bearish trend which is also pressuring the precious metals and silver is also right near recent lows so continue to play by the rules while taking advantage of any rallies as I would like to add to this trade as I think we will break 1,100 possibly in the next couple of weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as the risk/reward still meets criteria.

The stock market is hitting all time highs once again today as I talked about many times all the interest lays in the equity market and not the precious metals as money flows continue to come out of the metals & into equities as that should continue in 2015 so remain short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Free Webinar Replay "How to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings"....Just Click Here!

Silver futures in the September contract continued their bearish momentum settling last Friday in New York at 15.48 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 down about $.70 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 15.90 as the chart structure will not improve for several more trading days as silver prices have hit a five year low.

Silver futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average with a possible retest of last week’s low around 14.62 in the cards and if that level is broken I think there could be a washout to the downside as there’s no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as the U.S dollar hit a six week high.

Platinum prices have cracked $1,000 which has not happened in over five years as the dollar continues to put pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as deflation is a worldwide problem not inflation so continue to take advantage of any rallies will placing the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are still ahead despite this weeks 70 cent decline.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

You Might Want to Know What's Behind our "Big Trade"

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 126.25 a pound while currently trading at 128.30 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around this level as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time as the 10 day high stands at 132.50 risking around 400 points or $1,600 from today’s price levels plus slippage and commission.

Coffee prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as the downtrend line remains intact, however if you have not taken this recommendation I am still promoting a sell order at today’s levels as the risk/reward is highly in your favor as coffee is an extremely large contract as I do think the retest of the contract low around 125 could be in the cards next week.

The problem with coffee prices and many of the agricultural markets is that we have too much supply coupled with the fact of an extremely weak Brazilian Real versus the U.S dollar which is pressuring anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil so take a shot at the downside as the risk and the chart structure both meet my criteria to enter into a trade, however if we are stopped out which there is that possibility since the stop is so close look at other markets that are trending and don’t be stubborn.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Trading Options with "Small Lots"......Can be Done with Any Size Account

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.41 a pound while trading at 11.98 down around 40 points for the trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains choppy as prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive down day still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average, as the down trend line is still intact but I’m waiting for a breakout to occur which would be the contract low of 11.52 to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets have been going lower including crude oil which is also putting pressure on sugar prices as sugar is used as a biodiesel but the real problem is the U.S dollar which continues to move higher as I’m not bullish any commodity at this time as oversupply issues and deflation worldwide continues to put pressure on prices.

Sometimes the best thing to do is not trade and avoid markets at certain times and that’s what I’m stressing right now as choppiness is difficult and frustrating as there are many other markets that are trending significantly to the downside such as gold, silver, hogs, and several others.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's been a wild ride in the markets this week. And our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling in New York last week at 56.93 a barrel while currently trading at 52.66 down about $7 for the trading week hitting a three month low as I’ve been recommending a short position for quite some time and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 59.70 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis.

The next level of major support is at 49/51 as oversupply issues continue to hamper prices here in the short term coupled with the fact of a possible Chinese slowdown affecting many commodities especially oil prices, however if you did not take the original trade the chart structure is terrible at the current time as the risk/reward is not your favor so sit on the sidelines and look for better markets with less risk. The U.S dollar is sharply lower this afternoon as a possible deal with Greece is on the table, however the dollar is still up significantly in the year 2015 and that’s keeping pressure on commodities as deflation is a worldwide problem so play by the rules and place the proper stop loss as who knows how prices can go.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

We have updated our free eBook "Understanding Options"....Get it Here!

Gold futures in the August contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last week at 1,163 while currently trading at 1,160 down slightly and traded as low as 1,146 in Wednesdays trade hitting a three month low as I’ve been recommending a short position and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,188 risking around $28 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

The chart structure will improve starting next week as the trend still remains bearish as I still see no reason why to own the precious metals as their looks to be agreement with Greece possibly over the weekend but all of the interest still lies in the S&P 500 in my opinion which is sharply higher this Friday afternoon. The U.S dollar is down 90 points today which generally is very bullish precious metals, however gold is unchanged this Friday afternoon as volatility remains low as platinum, copper, and palladium are all near contract lows which will pressure gold prices in the long run in my opinion so continue to play this to the downside while taking advantage of any price rally while maintaining the proper stop loss of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Core Traits of Successful Junior Exploration Stocks....Here are Some Hidden Gems

Coffee futures in the December contract settled last week in New York at 131.15 while currently trading at 129.80 a pound slightly lower for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and the long term trend is also to the downside as I’m now recommending a short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands 137.40 risking around 800 points or $3,000 per contract plus slippage and commission as this trade should only be taken with a large trading account.

Coffee prices continue their slow grinding bearish trend with very little volatility as the fundamentals have improved with Brazilian coffee exports rising to a record in the crop year ending June 30th up 6.9% to 36.5 million bags but that has been unable to support prices as we continue to move lower because of oversupply. The chart structure will start to improve in the next couple of days lowering monetary risk as many of the commodity markets still look weak as anything grown in Brazil continue to be under pressure due to the fact that the Brazilian Real is still right near a historical low versus the U.S dollar.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Sugar futures in the October contract are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed after settling last week in New York at 12.30 while currently trading at 12.12 slightly lower for the trading week as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a trend to develop.

Sugar prices continue its long term bearish trend while trading sideways in recent weeks as a breakout to the upside is 12.69 and on the downside below 11.52 so look at other markets that are currently trending as sugar prices look to go nowhere. Volatility in sugar prices at the current time is relatively low as I still do think lower prices are ahead but prices remain choppy so keep a close eye on this market as oversupply issues continue to pressure sugar coupled with an extremely weak Brazilian Real versus the U.S dollar as there are very few fundamental bullish reasons to push prices up at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

Get more of Mike's call on the Commodity Markets

Mike's Trading Theory

What Does Risk Management Mean To You? I generally tell people that the reason people lose money in commodities is not due to the fact that they are bad at predicting where prices are headed, however they are bad when it comes to losing trades and refusing to take a loss which results for heavy monetary losses that are difficult to come back from.

For example if a customer has $100,000 account in my opinion on any given trade he or she should risk 2% – 3% of the account value meaning if you are wrong the worst case scenario is still a $97,000 remaining balance, however what I always see is traders risking ridiculous amounts of money and instead of the 3% stop loss will risk 20% to 30% on any given trade or even higher therefore if you are wrong on two or three trades that $100,000 dollar account could dwindle down to nothing very quickly and I’ve seen it many times throughout my career.

What many traders forget to realize is they might have 4 or 5 commodity positions on and if you have too many contracts on all at the same time and all of those trades go against you which is very possible the losses can add up to be staggering so what I am suggesting to you is if you have $100,000 account risk between $2,000 – $3,000 per trade so if you lose on five straight trades the worst case scenario is that your down $15,000 and still have an $85,000 balance which is very possible to still come back from and your still in the game.

What's Behind the "Big Trade"....Watch the Free Video Here Now!

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract are up $.25 this Thursday afternoon in New York as this is the last trading day of the week due to the Fourth of July holiday currently trading at 57.22 a barrel while settling last Friday at 59.63 hitting a 10 week low as I’ve been recommending a short position for over a month and if you took that trade you’ve been very patient as prices have gone nowhere except for yesterday’s trade finishing down over $2 so continue to place your stop above the 10 day high which stands at 61.57 as the chart structure will start to improve next week as well.

Crude oil prices are right at major support as the $57 level is critical in my opinion and if prices do break that I think we could head much lower so continue to play this to the downside as large supplies continue to put pressure on this market as a build in crude oil inventories surprised the market yesterday as the U.S dollar also remains stubbornly strong. Currently we are in the strong demand season for gasoline as many drivers will be on the road this weekend, however the trend is your friend and the trend no matter how stubborn it has been in recent weeks is to the downside in my opinion as I remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

What's Behind the "Big Trade"....Watch Here Now!

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday at 1,173 an ounce while currently trading at 1,163 as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke the 1,170 level while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 1,201 risking around $31 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average breaking out to a 3 ½ month low as a possible retest of the contract low of 1,144 is in the cards in my opinion as I was recommending a short position a month ago getting stopped out so here I’m trying again to the downside as I’m a trend follower and the trend clearly in my opinion is lower.

Gold prices have been very weak despite a possible Greece exit while as I remain very pessimistic as I see no reason to own gold at the current time as the stock market still looks strong and if Greece cannot rally gold I don’t know what can so take advantage of any rallies as the chart structure will start to improve in the next couple of days as the stop will be lowered to 1,187 as the long-term downtrend line is also intact. As a trader you must forget about your previous trade’s winners or losers and stick with your trading system as sticking to the rules over the course of time is the way to go instead of constantly flip-flopping.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Our free webinar replay "The 5 Step Checklist You Can Use to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings "....Just Click Here to Watch!

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.77 an ounce while currently trading at 15.70 in a very nonvolatile shortened trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 15.80 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop above the 10 day high which stands at 16.26 risking around $560 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is very solid at the current time.

Silver futures are right at a four month low trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as the chart structure will improve next week and will be lowered in Tuesdays trade to 16.04 so be patient as the monthly unemployment number was released today basically pretty neutral sending gold slightly lower and having very little impact on silver prices as the volatility has slowed down tremendously.

Silver prices generally are one of the most volatile commodities in the world, however in recent months has been very quiet but something will happen in this market as I’m hoping it’s to the downside as I see no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as I still do believe all of the interest lies in the S&P 500 as money flows will continue to flow out of the precious metals and put into the stock market in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Get more of Mike's call on the Commodity Markets

Coffee futures in the September contract are hitting a four week low continuing its grinding bearish trend settling last Friday at 133.45 a pound while currently trading at 127.25 down 600 points for the trading week looking to break the contract low of 126.30 as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market for several months as the trend is lower to neutral at the current time.

As I’ve stated in previous blogs I think coffee is forming a bottoming pattern and if I was a producer I think prices are cheap enough to start accumulating, however as a speculator I see no reason to enter into this market at the current time. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside, however the 10 day high as over 1000 points away risking about $4,000 from today’s price levels as that does not meet my criteria to enter into a trade so I remain neutral on this as I think the downside is limited in my opinion.

Many of the agricultural markets have rallied including sugar which is also grown in Brazil but we have large supplies of coffee at the current time as I don’t see any large price movement here in the short term as volatility remains relatively low especially for such a historically volatile commodity.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session currently trading at 58.87 a barrel while settling last Friday in New York at 59.97 down about $1 for the trading week still stuck in nonvolatile sideways trend despite the fact that prices hit a two week low in today’s trade as I’ve been recommending a short position for over a month and if you took the original trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high at 61.81 risking around $3 or $1,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Crude oil is trading below its 20 day but still slightly above its 100 day moving average as I’ve traded crude oil for 20 years and I can’t remember such a nonvolatile stretch like we’ve had in the last several months consolidating the giant move to the upside. The next breakout level is below 57.00 and if that level is broken prices could move sharply lower but that’s a big if as volatility is extremely low at the current time. Next week is the 4th Of July holiday weekend as I think volatility will remain low until Friday’s monthly unemployment report which could dictate the short term trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

What's Behind the "Big Trade"....Watch Here Now!

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,202 while currently trading at 1,170 an ounce down about $30 for the trading week remaining incredibly choppy as I was recommending a short position getting stopped out in last week’s trade when prices bumped up against 1,200 as I’m sitting on the sidelines at the current time waiting for another breakout to occur and that could happen soon as prices remain very weak. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average looking to break the critical 1,170 level and the second critical level is 1,160 if that level is broken I would have to think that the bear market is underway as I see no reason to own gold at the current time as all the interest is in the stock market which is right near all time highs. Gold only seems to rally due to the fact that Greece could possibly exit the Euro Zone and that’s why I got stopped out in last week’s trade. The chart structure in gold is outstanding but if prices do break I will be recommending a short position while placing my stop above the 10 day high which 1,205 risking around $35 or $1,200 risk per mini contract plus slippage and commission so be patient and wait for the breakout to occur.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Our free webinar replay "The 5 Step Checklist You Can Use to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings "....Just Click Here to Watch!

Coffee futures in the September contract are trading above their 20 but slightly below their 100 day moving average continuing its sideways trend settling last Friday in New York at 130 while currently trading at 136 as I do think prices have bottomed out around the 128 level, however prices have not hit a four week high so I’m waiting for a breakout to occur. The chart structure is improving dramatically as volatility remains relatively low as I do think a breakout to the upside is in the cards as prices hit a 2 week high in today’s trade as many of the agricultural markets have bottomed and are moving higher especially the grain market due to weather problems. The problem with coffee is the fact that we had huge production coming out of Brazil coupled with the fact that of a very weak Brazilian Real against the U.S dollar pushing many agricultural products that are grown in Brazil lower including orange juice, sugar and coffee in 2015, however everything comes to an end and it certainly looks to me that prices are going higher. I deal with many producers down in Brazil and in my opinion I would start to buy the actual cash coffee as I think prices are low enough but for speculators wait for the breakout which would be a 4 week high before entering which could happen in next week’s trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

Get more of Mike's call on the Commodity Markets

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday at 11.55 a pound while currently trading at 11.92 up about 37 points for the week as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last month and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which is just an eyelash away at 12.12 risking around 20 points or $220 dollars per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Sugar prices hit a 6 year low as I remember in 2010 prices were trading around 35 rallying with many of the commodity markets due to quantitative easing as that’s how far prices have dropped as production numbers in Brazil are relatively high. Harvest is underway which generally creates a seasonal low at harvest time, however I’m a technical trader and I will continue to stick to the rules and place my stop at the 10 day high as overproduction over the last several years has sent prices to multi year lows and if we are stopped out then look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Weekly Gold, Silver and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,172 an ounce while currently trading at 1,201 an ounce rallying sharply on rumors of a Greece exit possibly happening over the weekend sending prices sharply higher as I was recommending a short position from around the 1,170 level getting stopped out in yesterday’s trade losing around $30 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Janet Yellen and the FOMC committee did not raise interest rates earlier in the week sending gold sharply higher hitting a 3 week high but I still remain skeptical of this rally as a deal with Greece will occur in my opinion as the stock market still remains strong keeping money out of the gold market in the short term.

Gold prices have been trading sideways for quite some time breaking out a couple weeks back as this trade went nowhere until yesterday sending high volatility back into this market as I will sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as gold remains extremely choppy at the current time.

The U.S dollar is trading near a 6 month low and that’s propping up the precious metals in today’s trade as the next major level of resistance to the upside is 1,225 but I will wait for better chart structure to develop. Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

What's Behind the "Big Trade"

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 15.82 an ounce while currently trading at 16.01 continuing its choppy trend right near critical support in my opinion as prices have not rallied much despite the fact that gold rallied $28 dollars in yesterday’s trade . I do believe if 15.40 is broken this market turns extremely bearish, however prices have rallied off that level many times so be patient and wait for the true breakout to occur as I’m sitting on the sidelines at the current time.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however I don’t like to trade choppy markets so be patient and wait for the chart pattern to improve while keeping a close eye on 15.40 because if that’s broken I think prices could head substantially lower as I don’t see any reason to own the precious metals at the current time.

The problem with the precious metals is the fact that U.S interest rates are on the rise coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar longer term as all the interest remains in the stock market which is still right near an all-time high so wait for the true breakout to happen.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Our free webinar replay "The 5 Step Checklist You Can Use to Find the Next Hedge Fund Darlings "....Just Click Here to Watch!

Sugar futures hit a fresh 6 year low this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 11.12 a pound after settling last Friday at 11.72 closing right at session lows as I’ve been recommending a short position from 12.00 & if you’ve been following any of my previous blogs you understand that this trend is getting stronger as prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving averages.

Sugar prices have traded lower 4 out of the last 5 trading sessions and if you took the original trade continue place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 12.25 as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact that prices continue to head lower on a daily basis.

Sugar production has been massive over the last several years sending large supplies onto the market coupled with the fact that the Brazilian Real is historically weak against the U.S dollar which continues to put pressure on sugar prices as I’m looking to add more contracts to this position once the chart structure improves and the risk/reward meets criteria which could happen in the next couple of days.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Get more of Mike's call on the Commodity Markets


Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Will Gold Win Out Against the US Dollar?

By Louis James

It is an essential impossibility to solve problems created by excess debt and artificial liquidity with more of the same. That’s our credo here at Casey Research, and the reason why we believe the gold price will turn around and not only go higher, but much, much higher.

While fellow investors around the world may not agree with gold loving contrarians like us, they are buyers: gold is up in euros and almost everything else, except the dollar.

The dollar’s rise has been strong and seems all but unstoppable. But look at it in big picture terms, as in the chart below, and ask yourself how sustainable the situation is.

I’m skeptical of reading too much into such charts. A peak like the one in the early 1980s would certainly take the USD much higher, and for several years to come. But still, this is an aberration. It’s not the new normal, but rather the new abnormal.

More to the point, gold hasn’t collapsed since the dollar began its latest surge last July. Just look at this one-year chart of gold vs. the US dollar. The dollar is up sharply (in EUR, as a proxy for everything-not-the-dollar and for comparability to the chart below), but gold is only moderately down.

Gold has been trading almost sideways over the last year.

That might seem like damnation by faint praise, but it’s critically important. With the USD skyrocketing and commodities plummeting, gold should be dropping like—well, like a gold balloon—if the critics are right and it has no practical value at all, except to dentists and fashion accessory designers.

But gold is money, the best store of wealth millennia of human experience have devised, and more and more people are recognizing this. Consider this chart of gold vs. the euro, which documents my contention that people outside the US do not see gold as a barbarous relic, but as an essential holding to safeguard their future.

Pretty much everywhere but in the US, gold is up, not down.

This chart supports my view that gold rebounded last November when it breached its 2013 low because international buyers saw that as an opportunity. The US has gone from primarily exporting inflation to exporting gold and inflation.

The fact that the dollar has risen faster than gold has dropped has important, positive effects on miners operating outside the US. If costs are paid in Canadian dollars, Mexican pesos, euros, or really hard-hit currencies like the Brazilian real, then those costs have just gone way down relative to the price of gold.

Of course, there’s a good chance that there’ll be more sell-offs before the gold bull resumes its charge… but they should be regarded as opportunities. Because once the gold market rises again, the best small-cap mining stocks have the potential to go vertical.

Watch eight industry experts discuss where we are in the gold cycle, and how to prepare your portfolio for gains of up to 500% or even 1,000%, in Casey’s recent online event, GOING VERTICAL. Click here for the video.


Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!