Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil's break of 80.51 suggests that rise from 69.50 has resumed and intraday bias is on the upside for 83.95 high next. On the downside, however, below 77.05 support will argue that rebound from 69.50 is completed, possibly with bearish divergence conditions. In such case, focus will be shifted back to 69.50 support instead.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil's choppy rise from 69.50 is still in progress and further rebound cannot be ruled out. But after all, there is no confirmation of reversal yet as long as 78.04 resistance holds. Below 72.60 minor support will suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the down side for retesting this support first. However, break of 78.04 will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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