Crude oil's break of 80.51 suggests that rise from 69.50 has resumed and intraday bias is on the upside for 83.95 high next. On the downside, however, below 77.05 support will argue that rebound from 69.50 is completed, possibly with bearish divergence conditions. In such case, focus will be shifted back to 69.50 support instead.
In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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