Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it rebounded off Monday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.41 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.44.

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this winter's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.724 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.531. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.724. First support is today's low crossing at 4.352. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below the lower boundary of the trading range of the past six weeks, which crosses at 79.92. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. If June renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.72. First support is today's low crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17.

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