Crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 83.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.53 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 83.36. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 83.53. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.79. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.53.
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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this winter's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.974 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.715. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.974. First support is today's low crossing at 4.512. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.
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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five weeks. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for a larger degree decline into spring. If June renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 81.97. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 80.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.92.
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