Crude oil drops further to as low as 80.44 and momentum continues to turn to the downside with 4 hours MACD turned negative. However, with 80.16 minor support intact, there is still no confirmation of topping yet and another rise could still be seen to retest 83.95 resistance before topping. However, break of 80.16 will suggest that a short term top is already formed at 83.16 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and deeper fall should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 next.
In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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