Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top is in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.32 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 81.15
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 77.44
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.32

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas closed lower on Monday and below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.819. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends this winter's decline, December's low crossing at 4.656 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.236 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.036
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.236

First support is today's low crossing at 4.740
Second support is December's low crossing at 4.656

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Monday but remains below the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.61 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.34
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.15


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