Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.41 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.03. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89.
Natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday and below weekly support crossing at 4.157 as it extends this winter's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.671 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.483. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.671. First support is today's low crossing at 4.119. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline while renewing the late winter trading range. The dollar rose sharply due to dealer talk that the Federal Reserve would raise the discount interest rate. Today's chatter among traders reflected fears that the Feb may raise interest rates sooner than later. Additional support came from renewed concerns over Greece's debt concerns. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.70 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17.
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