Phil Flynn: You've Got A Friend

When your down and troubled and you need a helping hand and nothing oh nothing is going right. Just close your eyes and think of Ben and soon he will be there to brighten even your darkest night. You’ve got a friend! The Fed has been the oil bull best friend but is that friendship going to start to become a little strained. With a better than expected jobs report and dissension within the committee the possibility of laying the groundwork for change is in the language in the much debated Fed Statement is rising. Let’s face it oil has been dependant on Fed policy and for all intents and purposes it has been a one sided relationship.

Now with the Fed feeling pressure to change the language about rates staying low for an extended period oil bulls may have their dreams of $85 or $90 dollar barrel oil squashed despite the illusion of their peak oil fantasies. Oh yes there are some that are betting on a change in the language even though the majority think things will not change but any hint of a softening in Fed resolve will be a big blow to oil bulls.

Oil broke the sharp intermediate uptrend and despite the fact that the move on a short term bias makes us look oversold and on target for an attempt at a recovery rally at least on a day trade basis the truth is that without more help by the Fed the oil bulls have failed to break out of the wider trading range with the highs established earlier this year. With the cheaters in the OPEC cartel beginning to meet and the Chinese more than likely to raise reserve requirements on their banks (assuming their egos and politics do not get in the way) the bulls will need a friend in Ben if they are going they have the fortitude to take oil to the next level If not then repeated failures to take out the mid eighties we will then eventually go and test the lower end of the range. Does this sound familiar?

The other help to the bulls may come from the Chinese. Now that President Obama has politicized the Chinese’s currency peg to the dollar in the eyes of the Chinese it makes it less likely that they will let the Yuan float .The Chinese says in effect that the policy of devaluing our currency to improve our competitive advantage. Well they might have a point if it were not for the fact the china pegged their currency to the dollar when the dollar was strong as well. The AFP reports that China on Tuesday dismissed calls from US lawmakers for Beijing to be labeled a currency manipulator, saying the value of the Yuan was not to blame for global trade imbalances. The comments echoed those by Premier Wen Jiabao at the weekend, who said Beijing would not yield to foreign pressure to allow the Yuan to appreciate, and warned other countries to stop "finger-pointing".

The AFP says that on Monday, a group of 130 Democratic and Republican lawmakers called on US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to single out China's Yuan policy in a report due next month, saying Beijing was in effect subsidizing exports. "The impact of China's currency manipulation on the US economy cannot be overstated," the lawmakers said in the letter submitted to Geithner and US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke."Maintaining its currency at a devalued exchange rate provides a subsidy to Chinese companies and unfairly disadvantages foreign competitors." us Chinese commerce ministry spokesman Yao Jian said the strong Yuan, effectively pegged to the dollar since mid-2008, was not the reason for China's trade surplus.


Energy analyst Phil Flynn can reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com


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