Crude Oil Closes Higher, Bulls Still Have a Lot to Prove

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top is in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.38 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.32
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 77.44
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.38

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.819. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends this winter's decline, December's low crossing at 4.656 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.203 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.978
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.203

First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.740
Second support is December's low crossing at 4.656

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday while extending February's trading range below the 50% retracement level of the 2009-decline crossing at 81.32. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that the March Dollar might continue to correct more in time than in price.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.61 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.41
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.15

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