Crude Oil Rises on Forecast of Supply Decline, Weaker Dollar

Crude oil rose before a report forecast to show U.S. inventories dropped for a third week and as the dollar fell, spurring investor demand for commodities. The Energy Department will probably say that supplies slipped 1.75 million barrels, according to the median of 18 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. The Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency versus six major trading partners, slid to the lowest level since March 17. “It makes sense that prices are heading higher this morning because today’s report is expected to show a sizable draw in crude oil stocks,” said Jason Schenker, the president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant.

Crude oil for November delivery rose 94 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $75.91 a barrel at 9:02 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 6 percent from a year ago. Brent crude oil for November settlement gained 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $78.79 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The Dollar Index slipped 0.7 percent to 79.844. The U.S. currency traded at $1.3374 per euro, down 0.8 percent from yesterday, after touching $1.3418 per euro, the lowest level since April 17.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Has the Price of Gold Reached its Zenith?

Today we are going to be looking at gold and analyze the recent run up that has created a great deal of excitement and fear for many investors and traders.

We're also going to be looking at some upside measurements that we have for this market. Conversely, we are also looking at an area that should provide support should the gold market pull back from its current levels.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Sept. 21st

Crude oil was lower overnight and remains poised to renew last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If October extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 71.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.27 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.48
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.27

First support is last Friday's decline crossing at 72.75
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.53

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook From Oil n Gold

Crude oil edged high to 78.04 last week but was limited below mentioned 61.8% retracement of 82.97 to 70.76 at 78.31 and reversed. The break of 73.88 minor support indicates that whole recovery from 70.76 is likely completed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for a retest on 70.76 support first. Sustained trading below 70.76/71.09 support zone will confirm our bearish view that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already and target another low below 64.23. On the upside, above 75.25 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But we'll stay bearish as long as 78.31 fibo resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Decisive break of 71.09 will confirm this bearish case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 82.97 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If October extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the decline off August's high crossing at 78.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.50
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of August's high crossing at 78.58

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.43
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 72.63

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China's Outlook Dominates the Market

While market sentiment was dominated by renewed concerns over the stability of the European banking system earlier in the week, better than expected bond auctions in Portugal and Poland eased the worries. Confidence was further boosted by the weekly drop in US jobless claims and China's trade data which suggested the country's demand for foreign goods remained strong.

Oil started the week moving within a narrow range with a soft tone but strength in stock markets drove price higher. Prices were further lifted after reports of shutdowns of production facilities. Gold jumped earlier in the week as sovereign risks in the Eurozone spurred demand for safe havens. However, failure to breach the record high triggered selloff.

Crude Oil
Oil price jumped on Friday as better-than-expected data from the US and China boosted optimism of the demand outlook. The front-month WTI contract jumped to a 4-week high of 76.73 before settling at 76.45, up +2.48% on weekly basis. Fuel prices also soared with heating oil and gasoline futures gaining more than +2%. Brent crude also rose but the increase was milder than WTI crude.

Movement of WTI-Brent spread was dramatic last week. The front-month WTI contract had widened to a $3.65 discount to ICE Brent on Tuesday (Sep 7) before narrowing to $1.71 on Friday. The change was mainly driven by shutdown of the largest pipeline operated by Enbridge Energy Partners due to a leak. According to the company, the pipeline can carry 670K bpd of oil from Canada to refineries in the US Midwest. The direction of the WTI-Brent spread in the near-term depends on when the pipeline can resume operations. Indeed, Enbridge closed another line, which transports oil from Indiana to Ontario, 6 weeks ago after a spill in Michigan. Repair of the line has been finished but US regulators has not yet permitted it to resume operations.

We do not expect WTI crude oil to return parity or even at premium to Brent crude in the short term as total crude oil inventory remains at record high and Cushing stock is abundant......Read the entire Oil N' Gold Focus Report



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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Sept. 11th

From the staff at Oil N' Gold.....

After staying in range for most of the week, crude oil's rebound form 70.76 resumed on Friday and jumped to as high as 76.73. Initial bias will remain mildly on the upside this week for further rebound. Though, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 82.97 to 70.76 at 78.31 and bring resumption of fall from 82.97. Below 73.88 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Also, Sustained trading below 70.76/71.09 support zone will confirm our bearish view that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already and target another low below 64.23.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Decisive break of 71.09 will confirm this bearish case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 82.97 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near term. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 75.96
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.03

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 74.70

First support is the reaction low crossing at 72.63
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.53

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.52
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.58

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 73.78

First support is the reaction low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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Markets Close Lower, Bulls Maintain The Advantage For Wednesday Morning

The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term. If September extends last week's rally, August's high crossing at 1127.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1067.21 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1107.10. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1127.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1074.61. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1067.21.

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.66. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.85. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.58. First support is August's low crossing at 70.76. Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35.

Natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.844. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short covering rebound is possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.048 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.946. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.048. First support is August's low crossing at 3.697. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday and above the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1253.30 as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1267.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1234.40 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1260.30. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1267.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1245.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1234.40.

The U.S. Dollar gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends last week's decline, August's low crossing at 80.75 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 83.29. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 83.96. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 82.23. Second support is August's low crossing at 80.75.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.80.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.58.

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 74.12

First support is the reaction low crossing at 70.76.
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35.

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday September 4th

From the staff at Oil N Gold.....

Crude oil was bounded in choppy sideway trading between 70.76/75.58 last week. Consolidations from 70.76 could still extend further and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 82.97 to 70.76 at 78.31 and bring resumption of fall fro 82.97. Sustained trading below 70.76/71.09 support zone will confirm our bearish view that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already and target another low below 64.23.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Decisive break of 71.09 will confirm this bearish case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 82.97 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.26 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.26
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 75.58

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 74.42

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35


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Crude Oil Trader Market Summary For Wednesday Evening

The S&P 500 index closed higher on Thursday as it extended yesterday's breakout above the 20 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term. If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1098.40 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 1037.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1086.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1098.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1060.89. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1037.50.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.21. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.58. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76. Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past five days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.101 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.889. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.101. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.697. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed higher on Thursday and tested the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1253.30. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1267.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1226.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1255.30. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1267.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1238.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1226.60.

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Bears Maintain Near Term Technical Advantage as Traders Wait For Friday's U.S. Jobs Report

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today and saw some short covering to end the month. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report. Trading could be quieter up until Friday morning. Remember that the months of September and October have been historically unkind to the stock market bulls. Friday's jobs report and the stock market's reaction to it could set the tone for trading in the stock indexes during the month of September.

Crude oil closed down $2.95 at $71.75 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today as bears have regained fresh downside technical momentum. A less than rosy economic assessment from the Fed in its FOMC minutes helped to sink crude today. Crude oil bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed down 0.2 cents at $3.81 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. A 2 1/2 month old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.20.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 3 points at 83.59 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 85.00.

Gold futures closed up $11.80 at $1,251.00 today. Prices closed near the session high, hit a fresh two month high, scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and posted a significantly bullish monthly high close today. Bulls gained fresh upside technical momentum today and are now poised to challenge the all time high of $1,270.60, scored in June. A weaker U.S. dollar and some fresh safe haven buying interest also helped to support the gold market today.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.09. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.96 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.58
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.96

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 74.27

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook

Natural gas's decline extended further last week as expected and the strong break of 3.81 support confirms that whole fall from 6.108 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 161.8% projection of 5.196 to 4.288 from 4.007 at 3.538 first. On the upside, above 3.86 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 4.288 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 3.81 support last week confirms that whole decline from 6.108 has resumed. Further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896 next. More importantly, the development revived the case that medium term rebound from 2.409 is completed at 6.108 already. Also, fall from 6.108 might indeed be resuming the long term down trend for a new low below 2.409. We'll pay attention to the structure of the current decline for more hints. On the upside, break of 4.288 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 5.877) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.617) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.

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New Video: Why Weekly Charts Work

Many traders get so involved with the market on a daily or even an intraday basis, that they somehow lose out on the bigger picture. Weekly charts are enormously helpful in giving clues to the future direction of the market.

In today's video we examine one of the biggest markets in the world, the S&P 500, using a weekly chart. The video runs about two minutes in length and we think you will find it both educational and informative.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Enjoy the video and be sure to share your thoughts.

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Smart Scan Chart Analysis For Crude Oil ETF....USO

Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues negative longer term. Look for this market to remain weak. As always trade this strong downtrend with tight stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):



+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Wednesday
-20.....Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25.....New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 28th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May
-90.....Total Score


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