Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, Dollar, Coffee and Sugar Markets

Is being on the sidelines a good trade? Of course it is and sometimes we just have to step back and being honest with ourselves when there just is not any trends that work to our advantage. And that's never been more the case than it is right now in the commodity markets. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the December contract are trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average hitting an eight week low in Tuesdays trade only to rebound in Wednesdays trade off of a bullish API report as prices remain choppy as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines just like I have been in many different markets as there are very few trends that are currently developing.

Crude oil prices settled last Friday in New York at 44.60 while currently trading at 46.18 slightly higher for the trading week as the U.S dollar is at an eight week high putting pressure on many commodities especially the precious metals over the last several days, but it looks to me that crude oil prices are stabilizing around the mid-40 level.

Gasoline prices have fallen dramatically over the last several months and has put pressure on crude oil prices as I paid $2.14 in the suburb of Chicago yesterday for gas which was the lowest price since 2009 but at the current time this market remains choppy, but the chart structure still remains very solid as there could be a possible trade in the next week or two.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Natural gas futures in the December contract are trading lower for the 8th consecutive trading session finishing down 25 points for the trading week hitting a 3 ½ year low currently trading at 2.25 as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last eight weeks and if you took that trade congratulations as this market has completely collapsed due to the fact of extremely warm weather in the Midwestern part of the United States. Natural gas prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is sharply lower as the November contract right before expiration actually traded below 2.00 as the next level of support on the December contract is this Fridays low of 2.18 and if that is broken I think we can retest 2.00 once again as the forecast of warmer weather continues.

The chart structure will start to improve dramatically in Wednesdays trade as the 10 day high currently stands at 2.70 but that will be lowered on a daily basis so be patient as the risk will come down so accept the monetary risk. Many of the commodity markets are dictated by a strong or weak U.S dollar, but natural gas is a domestic product as price fluctuations depend on weather conditions as the weather in the Midwest has been extremely warm therefore depressing demand lowering prices as well so remain short in my opinion, however if you have missed this trade move on as you have missed the boat.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract settled the trading week on a sour note closing around 15.55 an ounce unchanged this Friday afternoon after hitting a 4 month high in Wednesdays trade, but then the Federal Reserve stated that they will possibly raise interest rates in the month of December sending silver prices sharply lower hitting a three week low in today’s trade.

I was recommending a long position from around 16.25 while getting stopped out around 15.60 taking a small loss as I can’t remember the last time the Federal Reserve actually benefited my trades which is very frustrating as I just wish they would raise interest rates and get it over with.

At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as gold prices look very weak in my opinion as I’m sitting on the sidelines in that market as well while focusing at other markets that are beginning to trend as silver prices remain extremely choppy despite the recent bullish momentum.
Ttend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

The U.S dollar is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average in a very volatile trading week surging higher in Wednesdays trade as the Federal Reserve stated that they might possibly raise interest rates in the month of December, however prices have fallen back 100 points in the last two trading days finishing down on the week by about 50 points. The dollar hit a 10 week high in Wednesday’s trade as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as well as this remains extremely choppy as the 10 day low is over 200 points away therefore not meeting my risk criteria.

The problem with many of the commodity markets at the current time is that they remain choppy as the U.S dollar is sharply higher one day and then sharply lower the next day so be patient. I’m still looking at a possible bullish position but the chart structure has to improve and that’s going to take another five days so keep a close eye on this market to the upside, but at this point in time look at other markets that are beginning to trend. One bullish fundamental factor that could prop up the dollar is fact that the U.S will raise interest rates it’s just a matter of time while Europe and many other foreign countries continue to lower interest rates.
Trend: Higher - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 118.45 a pound while currently trading at 121.15 as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop. I was recommending a bullish position several weeks ago when prices traded as high as 138 on concerns about dry weather in Brazil but adequate rains hit key coffee growing regions sending prices to today’s levels.

Major support in coffee is at the contract low around 115 which was hit in the month of September as I think I will be on the sidelines for quite some time as the chart structure is very poor which means that the monetary risk is too high to enter into the trade so look at other markets that are beginning to trend. Volatility in coffee is relatively high as that’s not surprising as coffee historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities as in 2014 a drought hit Brazil sending prices up about 80% very quickly, but at the current time there are no weather problems existing.

In my opinion I do believe coffee prices are bottoming out as it would surprise me if we headed much lower and if you are a producer I would still be buying at today’s prices as I think the downside is limited.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.28 a pound while currently trading at 14.68 up 40 points for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum hitting a 5 1/2 month high. Sugar prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as I have missed this trade due to the fact that the chart structure was poor at the time of the breakout, but my recommendation would be if you are currently long a futures contract place your stop loss below the 10 day low which stands at 13.94 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade therefore lowering monetary risk.

The next major level of resistance is at 15.00 as prices bottomed out around 11.50 in September due to less production coming out of Brazil due to heavy rains as well as strong demand changing the supply/demand table very quickly as we will not produce a record crop in 2016 like we have over the last several growing seasons.

As a trader you must have an exit strategy as I had many short positions in sugar over the last year, however I always use the 10 day high if I am short as an exit strategy because holding on and never getting out is a very dangerous way to trade because commodity prices can change very quickly.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

What does Mike mean when he talks about chart structure and why does he think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade?

Mike tells us "I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss."

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Dollar and Coffee Markets

Traders reacted to a very bad monthly unemployment number pushing the U.S dollar sharply lower supporting many markets on Friday afternoon. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the November contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as prices have been consolidating in recent weeks settling last Friday in New York at 45.70 a barrel while currently trading at 45.10 down around $.60 for the trading week. Traders reacted to a very bad monthly unemployment number pushing the U.S dollar sharply lower supporting many markets this Friday afternoon as I’m recommending a short position if prices break 44.00 while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 47.15 risking around $1,600 per contract plus slippage and commission, as prices have not broken out at this point so keep a close eye as this as this could happen any minute.

Many of the commodity markets are mixed this Friday afternoon as a weak U.S dollar has supported many different markets as the S&P 500 is sharply lower and that’s usually a negative influence towards oil prices, but they are stuck in a consolidation and I don’t like to trade choppy markets so be patient and wait for the breakout to occur. Oil prices have been relatively volatile especially with the fact that Russia is bombing Syria sending prices sharply higher yesterday and then falling out of bed towards the end of the day, so make sure you respect this market placing the proper amount of contracts therefore respecting risk which is high at the current time.
Trend: Sideways
Chart Structure: Improving

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Natural gas futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.63 while currently trading at 2.43 hitting a 3 ½ year low as I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 2.70 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.72 as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact that prices continue to move lower.

Mild temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States is causing demand problems therefore putting pressure on short term prices as the next major level of support is around 2.25 and if that is broken we can retest the 2012 lows around 2.00 in my opinion as the trend is your friend and this trend is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis.

At the time of the recommendation the chart structure was outstanding and was one of the main reasons I took that trade, however if you have missed this trade the chart structure is poor as the risk is too high as you have missed the boat so look at other markets that are beginning to trend. If you take a look at the weekly chart pattern natural gas has broken out of major consolidation as I’m looking to add more positions to this trade once the chart structure tightens up which will take another week or so.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,145 an ounce while currently trading at 1,131 down about $14 this week but reacting sharply higher today on a poor monthly unemployment number but continuing its long term down trend while trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average retesting major support at 1,100 near an eight week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.

I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend. Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven, but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time and wait for better chart structure to develop before entering.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.11 an ounce while currently trading at 15.00 down about $.10 reacting sharply higher due to a poor monthly unemployment number today continuing its remarkable choppy trend over the last several months as prices are right near a four week low.

At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as I hate trade choppy markets as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and the long term down trend is still intact in my opinion as this market has been frustrating as prices seem to go nowhere.

I’ll keep a close eye and wait for better chart structure to develop as platinum prices hit another contract low and I think that will continue to pressure silver, but I will wait for a breakout to occur as the 10 day high is too far away risking too much money at the current time so be patient as the trend clearly remains bearish.

The U.S dollar has remained strong throughout 2015 as that’s put pressure on the precious metals and many other commodities as I think the U.S dollar is about to breakout to the upside and if that does occur look for silver prices to possibly head back down to the $13 level.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The dollar index futures in the December contract are trading above their 20 day and right at their 100 day average telling you that the trend has turned to the upside as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.88 to occur before entering a bullish position while then placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which would be 95.57.

The dollar settled last Friday at 96.43 while currently trading at 96.45 basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting the monthly unemployment number which will be released this morning at 7:30 sending high volatility back into this market. I have not traded the dollar index for quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the market, but at this point patience is the key waiting for the true breakout to occur before entering as we could be entering a bullish position any day now.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Coffee futures in the December contract are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is mixed as I was recommending a short position getting stopped out last Friday around the 122 level as I’m now sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as I have been stopped out of the last two recommendations. Coffee settled last Friday at 122.70 a pound while currently trading at 121 down slightly for the trading week with very low volatility as prices are still right near a 4 week high waiting for some fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action.

Generally speaking coffee is one of the most volatile commodities historically speaking, but with low volatility at the current time as prices have been going sideways for the last month or so, but a new trend could be developing as prices look to be bottoming out around this level in my opinion. The Brazilian Real has stabilized against the U.S dollar in the past week and that’s also helped push up coffee prices here in the short term, but only time will tell to see if that trend remains, but I expect high volatility to emerge in the coming months.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Dollar and Coffee Markets

The fed showed it's lack of confidence in the economy by keeping rates unchanged and traders made it clear how they feel about it. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 44.63 a barrel while currently trading at 46.40 up nearly $2 for the trading week as the short term trend seems to be gaining traction to the upside.

I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as prices are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as a bullish API report on Wednesday sent prices up sharply as it looks to me that prices want to go higher but the risk is too high at the current time to enter into a position. The U.S dollar was sharply lower this week as that supported the precious metals and the energy sector as prices are still consolidating last month’s rally from $38/$49 as volatility is relatively high at the current time.

The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that they will not raise interest rates helping push up many commodities here in the short term, but the problem with oil at the current time is the fact that we have massive worldwide supplies which have sent prices sharply lower in 2015 but that’s already reflected into the price, but wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a couple more weeks so keep a close eye on this market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Natural gas futures in the October contract are trading below their 20 and 100 telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’m now recommending a short position at 2.63 while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.80 risking $1,700 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The chart structure will not improve for another 6 days so you’re going to have to accept the risk as prices are down about 6 points for the trading week as the energy sector is lower this Friday afternoon. Natural gas prices bottomed out around the 263 level on over a dozen occasions only to rally every single time but this time we broke major support and that’s why I am taking a short position as I think the risk/reward is in your favor but I would like to see a little better chart structure as we had a false rally earlier in the week to the upside and that’s why the stop loss is relatively high.

If the risk is too high for your trading account take advantage of any price rally therefore lowering monetary risk as who knows how low prices go as huge supplies continue to put pressure on this market coupled with mild weather conditions therefore decreasing demand here in the United States so stay short in my opinion as this is a major breakdown in price technically speaking.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Gold futures in the December contract are sharply higher this Friday in New York trading up $20 at 1,137 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,103 reacting to the Federal Reserve yesterday not raising interest rates sending gold sharply higher with high volatility. Gold is trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for quite some time as this trend is extremely choppy as I’m advising investors to avoid this market at the current time and wait for better chart structure before entering.

I was recommending a silver trade getting stopped out a couple of days back as the precious metals as a whole have rallied as it looks like the Federal Reserve is very hesitant to raise interest rates which is bullish commodity markets at least here in the short term, but the true breakout in gold is above 1,170 but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk.

The U.S dollar has been down 150 points in the last three days which has been very supportive to the precious metals as money is coming out of the S&P 500 and into gold but time will tell us if this trend is for real.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.50 an ounce while currently trading at 15.25 up $.75 this week reacting to the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates sending silver prices sharply higher. I was recommending a short position in silver from around 14.70 getting stopped out in Wednesdays trade around 14.95 as prices are now trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed so sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

The chart structure in silver at the time of the recommendation was outstanding, however currently the chart structure is poor with high risk as the true breakout does not occur until prices break 15.77 as silver may have bottomed in the short term.

Many of the commodity markets have been choppy in recent weeks as I was stopped out of many of my trade recommendations as my only two positions at current time are short coffee and cattle as I will wait and be patient as sometimes not trading is the best thing to do.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

The dollar index futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 & 100 day average telling you that the trend is to the downside reacting negatively to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates sending the dollar down over 100 points for the trading week.

I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.63 to occur before entering a bullish position but it looks to me that prices look to retest last month’s low of around 93 but the chart structure is poor at the current time so avoid this market as the risk is too high in my opinion.

I have not traded the currencies in quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the currency market but at this point the chart structure does not meet my criteria so find another market that is trending.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is bearish in the short term after settling in New York last Friday at 116.55 while currently trading at 118.25 in a very nonvolatile trading week. I am currently recommending a short position and if you took that recommendation continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 122.50 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time while the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion.

Coffee prices continue their bearish trend as traders are concerned that Brazil will continue to sell reserves due to the fact that of the Brazilian Real weakness versus the U.S dollar, but only time will tell to see if this comes to fruition. I’m a trend follower and the trend is to the downside as I think volatility will start to increase as coffee historically speaking is one of most volatile commodities in the world but at this point remains very dormant.

As I talked about in yesterday’s blog anytime you can risk three or four points in coffee you must take that trade as I think that’s a special situation that does not happen very often over the course of the year due to the fact that volatility is usually much higher than it is presently.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


Make sure you get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Dollar and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The institutional traders are back from vacation and trading volume is picking up. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.05 a barrel while currently trading at 45.20 as this market has been highly volatile as I probably will not be trading crude oil for quite some time as the chart structure is terrible so look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk. Prices are currently trading above their 20 day moving average for the first time in months but still below their 100 day average as the trend remains mixed.

Crude oil prices have been following the stock market as when the S&P 500 is sharply lower you can rest assured crude oil prices will be lower and vice versa as everything comes to and as we were short this market from $59 as the trend was our friend for three months before turning on a dime, as this is why you must have an exit strategy as mine is placing a stop at the 10 day high if I am short as never getting out is very dangerous in my opinion. Goldman Sachs cut demand for crude oil sending prices lower this Friday afternoon as experts are calling for lower prices and the possibly of breaking $30 a barrel due to massive oversupply but I will wait for a trend to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures settled in New York at 2.65 last Friday afternoon while currently trading at 2.67 in a very nonvolatile trading week as prices are stuck in an incredibly tight three-week channel looking to breakout one direction and my feeling is to the downside and if prices break 2.63 I’m recommending a short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high at 2.73 risking $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. Natural gas futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as this has been a bearish trend over the last several years due to oversupply issues here in the United States as we are a massive supplier and exporter of natural gas and I don’t think that situation is going to change, so keep a close eye on this market as a breakout is in the cards in my opinion. As a trader you have to look for special situations as my consolidation rule states that a consolidation must be 8 weeks or longer so this does not meet criteria, however the chart structure is outstanding therefore lowering monetary risk as I’m looking forward to getting into this trade either on the short side or possibly even on the long side as the risk/reward is your favor once the breakout occurs but you must be patient.
Trend: Sideways
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,121 an ounce while currently trading at 1,106 down about $15 this week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average near a 3 week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure. I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend such as the silver market which I am currently recommending a short position because the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven but things have settled down putting short-term pressure on gold. As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time and focus on silver.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the December contract are trading lower by about $.30 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 14.33 an ounce as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 14.70 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 14.95 as you’re going to have to be patient as that stop loss will not be lower for quite some time. The next major level of support is at the contract low around the $14 mark and I do think that’s a possibility that could be retested in next week’s trade as the chart structure is still very solid at the current time. Silver prices settled last Friday at 14.55 while currently at 14.33 down over $.20 for the trading week as prices have been consolidating the recent downdraft in prices over the last three weeks, but the long-term and short-term trend still remain bearish in my opinion, so continue to play this to the downside while taking advantage of any price rally while maintaining the proper risk management strategy. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average closing at 3 week low in today’s trade as the commodity markets still looks bearish in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

The U.S. dollar index futures in the September contract are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day average telling you that the trend is mixed and has remained choppy for the last two weeks as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.63 to occur before entering a bullish position. The dollar settled last Friday at 96.24 while currently trading at 95.50 as investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision which will come out next week and will certainly send high volatility into this market so keep a close eye on this trade as we could be involved in next week’s trade. I have not traded the currencies in quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the currency market but at this point the chart structure does not meet my criteria so sit on the sidelines and see what the Federal Reserve states, and in my opinion I think they will not raise interest rates at the current time as there is too much uncertainty especially in the stock market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Coffee futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a multi year low while settling in New York last Friday at 119.15 a pound while currently trading at 117.50 down slightly for the week in low volatility. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines kicking myself as we should be entering a short position but the 10 day high is too far away and does not meet my risk/reward criteria, however I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position in this market as I do think prices could break 100 in the next month or so as ample supplies worldwide continue to keep a lid on prices. Many of the soft commodities including sugar and cocoa have rallied in recent weeks but has not help support coffee prices at all as this trend remains your friend and certainly the short-term trend is to the downside and if the chart structure does improve I will be recommending a short position which could happen in the next couple of days especially if a price rally occurs. I would imagine that volatility in coffee will start to increase as historically speaking coffee is one of the top five most volatile commodities in the world as this low volatility will not last.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The markets end a wild week in about the same place it started. Another wild ride that makes us so thankful to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks stressful trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 40.45 a barrel while currently trading at 45.00 sharply higher for the trading week as a hurricane is entering the Gulf of Mexico sending prices sharply higher as I have been recommending a short position from 59 over the last three months getting stopped out in today’s trade as everything comes to an end as this market has bottomed in the short term so sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

Many investors are running for the hills today as a relief rally has occurred in many of the commodity markets, however I’m still not bullish, but I’m not recommending any type of bullish position in this market at the current time as the chart structure is extremely poor and the risk is too high currently.

Political tensions with Yemen have also set prices higher but I truly believe this was just massive short covering as many of the funds have been short over many months and exited in today’s trade pushing prices higher but we will have to take a look if the open interest is declining or rising but in my opinion I think we will see the open interest decline which means short covering occurred.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 1,159 while currently trading at 1,133 in a wild and volatile trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is terrible at the current time as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average rallying about $90 from their monthly low around 1,080 up to 1,170 in Monday’s trade as the stock market has sent shockwaves throughout the commodities and especially in gold. This market remains extremely choppy as I like trading markets with very tight chart structure as this will take some time to develop so keep an eye on this market but there is no recommendation at this time.

The problem with gold was the fact that the stock market was down dramatically in Monday’s trade but gold was unable to rally as over the course of time as I still see no reason to own gold but there is no trend and as a trend follower I will stick to my rules and look at other markets that are starting to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 15.34 an ounce while currently trading at 14.53 down about $.80 for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum and traded slightly below $14 for the first time in 6 years. I am currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is very poor as the 10 day high currently stands at 15.77 as the risk/reward is not in your favor, however I remain bearish so I want to keep a close eye on this as the chart structure will start to improve later next week therefore lowering monetary risk.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as volatility is very high as many commodities have rallied this week as silver and gold have followed the footsteps of crude oil which was up about $8 for the trading week as the commodity washout may have stalled for the time being.

In my opinion take advantage of any sharp spike up in silver prices near the $15 level to enter into a short position as the trend is your friend when you trade the commodity markets but make sure you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade so avoid this market at the current time but we could be entering a short position later next week.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, SP 500, Coffee and Sugar Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The markets closed out the week in brutal fashion for the bulls this week so we are happy to have our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 43.11 a barrel while currently trading at 41.00 continuing its bearish momentum hitting a 6 ½ year low as I’ve been recommending a short position from $59 as we have now rolled over three times as we are now currently in the October contract as we started in July contract as prices still have not hit a 10 day high which currently stands at 46.00.

The chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week as prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as the commodity markets continue to look weak as heating oil and gasoline prices continue to hit new lows as well as who knows how low prices could actually go, however if you have missed the original recommendation sit on the sidelines as you do not want to chase markets as you have missed the boat in my opinion.

The stock market has hit a 7 month low which is also putting pressure on commodity markets as everything looks weak in my opinion so continue to place the proper stop loss as worldwide supplies are overwhelming at the current time coupled with the fact of a relatively strong U.S dollar as there is very little bullish fundamental news except for possible shortcoming to push prices up here in the short term as this trade has been tremendous over the last three months.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the December contract settled in New York last Friday at 1,112 an ounce while currently trading at 1,157 up about $45 for the trading week on massive concerns of global slowdowns pushing stock prices to a 7 month low therefore putting money back into the precious metals as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market getting stopped out around 1,105 or 10 day high around 10 days ago as Monday’s trade certainly will be interesting in my opinion.

The chart structure is extremely poor at the current time as we’ve had about an $80 rally from recent lows as prices traded as high as 1,168 earlier in the trading session but this market concerns me due to the fact that many of the commodity markets are headed lower as this is just a flight to quality here in the short term in my opinion.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in several months as it looks to me that prices might head up to the $1,200 level but I have a hard time believing that gold will rally as demand from China and India at the current time are weak so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I went through this before especially in 2008 when stock and commodity markets kept going down including gold as everybody had to sell everything because of margin calls and liquidity issues so keep a close eye on this market but at this time continue to look at other markets to sell which has been shooting fish in a barrel over the last 6 weeks.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

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The S&P 500 in the September contract is trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in several months hitting a 7 month low settling last Friday in Chicago at 2089 while currently trading at 2001 down 88 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from 2080 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2103 as the chart structure which once was excellent is now terrible.

If you have missed the original recommendation do not chase this market as the risk/reward is not the favor at the current time so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the energy sector is pulling down the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 rather dramatically in the last couple of days as the commodity markets are showing real worldwide weakness as I will continue to remain short while taking advantage of any price rally.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I hate selling the S&P 500 and I’ve only done it 2 times in the last 10 years but the risk/reward was highly in your favor so I took a shot and who knows how low prices can go as we are still only 5% from the record high as I think the next major resistance level is at 1950 which could be hit next week as volatility is extremely high with major risk at the current time.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Terrible

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Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 141.15 a pound while currently trading at 132.50 in a highly volatile last couple of weeks as prices are trading right at their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed at the current time.

I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position several weeks ago getting stopped out at the 10 day high which at the time was at 128 as the chart structure is very poor currently so I will be sitting on the sidelines for some time as prices did hit a 6 week high last Friday but unable to hold those levels due to the fact of a weak Brazilian Real and weak commodity prices throughout the world.

Volatility in coffee is extremely high as coffee historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities, but I do not like trading choppy markets and at the current time this market is very choppy so I will wait for tighter chart structure to develop therefore lowering monetary risk with the next major level of support around the contract low of 120 as the soft commodities still look very weak as I’m currently recommending a short position in sugar and cocoa.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 10.68 a pound while currently trading at 10.56 trading slightly lower for the trading week on very low volatility as I have been recommending a short position from 11.50 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 10.93 risking around 37 points or $400 per contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price levels.

Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as the daily chart structure is excellent allowing a tight monetary stop therefore lowering risk as a weak Brazilian Real continues to put pressure on prices coupled with the fact that crude oil has hit a six year low which is also a negative influence on sugar prices as sugar is also used as a biodiesel so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion.

The next major level of support is 10.40 and if that is broken I think we could break 10.00 a pound possibly next week as I see no reason to own any commodity at the current time as worldwide deflation currently exists.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Markets Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures exploded this Friday afternoon in New York trading higher by $2.60 a barrel currently at 60.26 reversing recent losses as yesterday prices hit a 6 week low and traded down to $56.51 rallying $5 since as there are rumors of facilities being shut down due to the Texas and Oklahoma floods but time will tell to see if that’s actually true.

Crude oil futures are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average showing high volatility as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices hit a four week low around the $58 level and if you took that trade we are underwater currently so place your stop loss above the 10 day high which remains at 61.75 risking around $1.50 or $750 per mini contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price level.

This is a perfect example of why I use my 2% rule of risk on any given trade because anything can happen on any given day as I did not expect oil prices to trade nearly $3 higher today and this trade has been a loser as the risk was $1,800 or approximately 2% of a 100,000 account balance as you must admit you are wrong sometimes but we are still in this trade and not stopped out yet as Monday could be a different story.

Today’s action in my opinion was massive short covering as prices remained weak before today but we will see if there’s any follow through in Monday’s trade and if you did not take this trade the risk/reward is your favor at the current time so take advantage of price spikes while maintaining the proper stop loss.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the August contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,205 an ounce currently trading at 1,190 down about $15 this week in a very nonvolatile manner as prices are still trading in a 9 week consolidation. The true breakout to the downside is around the 1,170 level as the U.S dollar remains strong continuing to put pressure on gold in the short term, however the chart structure is poor at the current time but that will improve in next week’s trade as a possible short could be in the cards.

As I talked about in many previous blogs I don’t see any reason to own gold at the current time as the stock market despite today’s selloff still remains very strong and the trend in the U.S dollar remains in a secular bullish trend so be patient and wait for a breakout to occur. I have a theory that states the longer the consolidation more powerful the breakout as the breakout is below 1,170 then I would suggest selling a futures contract placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which could happen in next week’s trade as investors are waiting for the U.S monthly unemployment report which comes out next Friday and certainly should send high volatility and price direction back into this market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the July contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed after settling last Friday at 17.05 while currently trading at 16.70 an ounce down about $.35 for the trading week hitting a two week low. Silver prices broke out two weeks ago and traded as high as 17.75 hitting a 3 month high, however I did not give any trade recommendation because the chart structure was so poor and the risk was way too high to enter so I’m still sitting on the sidelines at the current time.

The U.S dollar has regained its bullish momentum which is putting pressure on silver prices as the trend is mixed at the current time and I don’t like trading choppy markets as its extremely difficult to trade successfully in my opinion as lower prices look to be ahead in my opinion but I’m not recommending any type of position currently.

Volatility in silver at the current time is relatively mild as silver historically speaking is one of the most volatile commodities as something sure will develop in the coming weeks ahead so keep an eye on this market and wait for a better chart structure to develop lowering monetary risk as that’s the main key to successful trading in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 127 while currently trading at 125 a pound down about 200 points for the trading week as I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market and certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as the trend is to the downside but the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high is too far away & does not meet my criteria to enter into a new trade.

Production estimates in Brazil are expected to be very large and that’s what pushing prices lower as the Brazilian Real remains extremely weak against the U.S dollar which is negative anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil as volatility has slowed down this Memorial shortened holiday trading week but look at other markets with better chart structure.

Coffee prices are trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I do think there’s a possibility that prices could trade down to the 105 level over the next 4 to 6 weeks as there’s very little bullish fundamental news to dictate prices to the upside in my opinion except possible short covering at this time.

Many of the soft commodities have been going lower including sugar, orange juice, and coffee in recent weeks as global supplies are just very large and that’s what continuing to pressure prices as I don’t see that situation changing anytime soon or at least until the next growing season.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Get more of Mike's calls for this week on Corn, Oats, Sugar, Live Cattle and more....Here's this weeks entire article.



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