Are The U.S. Markets Sending a Warning Sign?

After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively. Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling? We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week. Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)? Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher? What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?

The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs. Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced.

We are also concerned about an early TWEEZERS TOP pattern that has set up early this week. If price continues to move lower as we progress through futures contract expiration week, FOMC, and other data this week, then we may see some strong resistance setting up near $35.25. Have the markets gotten ahead of themselves recently? Could we be setting up for a moderately deeper pullback in price soon?....Read More Here.

Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends And Shifting Capital

Falling Bonds and rising yields are creating a condition in the global markets where capital is shifting away from Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks have suddenly fallen out of favor, and Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and Metals/Miners are gaining strength. The rise in yields presents an opportunity for Banks and Lenders to profit from increased yield rates. In addition, historically low interest rates have pushed the Real Estate sector, including commodities towards new highs.

We also note Miners and Metals have shown strong support recently as the US Dollar and Bonds continue to collapse. The way the markets are shifting right now is suggesting that we may be close to a technology peak, similar to the DOT COM peak, where capital rushes away from recently high flying technology firms into other sectors (such as Banks, Financials, Real Estate, and Energy).

The deep dive in Bonds and the US Dollar aligns with the research we conducted near the end of 2020, which suggested a market peak may set up in late February. We also suggested the markets may continue to trade in a sideways (rounded top) type of structure until late March or early April 2021. Our tools and research help us to make these predictions nearly 4 to 5+ months before the markets attempt to make these moves....You Can Read This Research Here.

Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon?

There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately. The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?

Gold Support Near $1765 May Become a New Launchpad

My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level. As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400....Read More Here.

Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally....What Does That Mean for Investors & Traders?

If you were not paying attention, Platinum began to rally much higher over the past 3+ days – initiating a new breakout rally and pushing well above the $1250 level. What you may not have noticed with this breakout move is that commodities are hot – and inflation is starting to heat up. What does that mean for investors/traders?

Daily Platinum Chart Shows Clear Breakout Trend

First, Platinum is used in various forms for industrial and manufacturing, as well as jewelry and numismatic functions (minting/collecting). This move in Platinum is more likely related to the increasing inflationary pressures we’ve seen in the Commodity sector coupled with the increasing demand from the surging global economy (nearing a post-COVID-19 recovery). The most important aspect of this move is the upward pricing pressure that will translate into Gold, Silver, and Palladium.

We’ve long suggested that Platinum would likely lead a rally in precious metals and that a breakout move in platinum could prompt a broader uptrend in other precious metals. Now, the combination of this type of rally in Platinum combined with the Commodity rally and the inflationary pressures suggests the global markets could be in for a wild ride over the next 12 to 24+ months....Read More Here.

VIX and Defensive Sectors React To Perceived Trend Weakness

Since early November 2020, the VIX has continued to decline and consolidate near the 22 level. Late in December 2020 and beyond, the VIX started setting up series high price spikes – which indicates a flagging downside pattern is setting up. You can see this setup across the recent VIX highs.

Additionally, the VIX has “stepped” higher, moving from lows near 19.50 to higher lows near 21.00. This upward stepping base is indicative of a shift in volatility. My research team and I interpret this data as a sign that trend weakness is starting to build after the strong rally that initiated in early November 2020.

Although we have not seen any clear sign that the markets are about to reverse or decline, this move in the VIX is suggesting that volatility is increasing. The high price “breakout”, yesterday, in the VIX suggests a flag setup is nearing an Apex/breakout point....Read More Here.

Our Custom Valuations Index Suggests Precious Metals Will Decline Before Their Next Attempt to Rally

My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields. The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions. 

 Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector). Let’s explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.

Weekly Custom Valuations Index Chart

The first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below. The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020. Gold also peaked at this very same time. This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector....Read More Here.

Review of our recent BAN trade in SILJ

After recently closing our SILJ BAN trade, I want to take this opportunity to dissect our trade, including the process of selecting the proper exit targets and protecting capital within a trade. The BAN Trader Pro strategy incorporates these same techniques automatically within the decision making process of generating signals and taking trades.

With our recent SILJ trade, we initiated the entry on the upside breakout in price on November 5, 2020 – near $15.50. This upside breakout move prompted a new BAN trade trigger with SILJ near the top of the BAN Hotlist, suggesting further upside trending would continue.

Of course, nothing ever happens 100% as expected... like the announcement of Pfizer's vaccine being 90% effective coming out only days after making the trade! The immediate downturn in price activity resulted in our SILJ trade staying below our entry price for more than 30 days. Read on to see how we still made money on the trade....Read More Here.

Revisiting Our October 23rd "Four Stocks to Own" Article – Part I

Just before the U.S Elections, we authored an article related to four stocks/sectors that we thought would do well immediately after the November 2, 2020 elections. The article highlighted how sector rotation in almost any market trend can assist traders in finding solid trading triggers. 

We picked four stocks from various sectors for this example....

AAL   American Airlines Travel/Leisure
ACB   Aurora Cannabis Cannabis
GE     General Electric Industrial/Specialty Industry
SILJ   Junior Silver Miners ETF Precious Metals Miners


When you review my Yahoo! Finance article from October 23 and the November 6 follow up article related to these stock picks, you will quickly see that all of these stocks exhibited similar types of technical patterns. They were all bottoming in an extended rounded bottom formation and had all started to near a Pennant/Flag Apex in price. Additionally, many of them, with the exception of SILJ, had set up a very clear RSI technical divergence pattern over the course of setting up the extended bottom in price.

My research team and I selected these stocks because of key expectations related to the post election mentality of investors related to various sectors. First, the cannabis sector had a number of new US states approve cannabis legislation – providing for an expected increase in business activity for the entire cannabis sector. Second, no matter who won the election, another round of stimulus was likely to be approved resulting in increased economic opportunity for companies like GE and AAL. The Travel and Leisure sector still had its risks as a surge in COVID cases could greatly disrupt future travel expectations. Junior Silver Miners was our “hedge trade”. If none of these other stocks started to rally, then Silver Miners would likely move 15% to 20%+ higher over time....Continue Reading Here.

Long Term Gold/U.S. Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends for Metals - Part II

In the first part of our U.S. dollar and gold research, we highlighted the U.S. dollar vs. gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the U.S. dollar may be starting a broad decline. We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the U.S. dollar decline. Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market. This past research article – How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II – is an excellent review item for today’s Part II conclusion to our current article.

Custom Metals Index Channels & Trends

Our Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside price rally that is taking place in precious metals. If our research is correct, the bottom that formed in 2015 was a “half cycle bottom” – where the major cycle dates span from 2010 to 2019 or so. This half cycle bottom suggests risk factors related to the global market and massive credit expansion after the 2008-09 credit crisis may have sparked an early appreciation phase in precious metals – launching precious metals higher nearly 3 to 4 years before the traditional cycle phases would normally end/reverse....Continue Reading Here.

Custom Index Charts Suggest U.S. Stock Market Ready for a Pause

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel....attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Weekly Smart Cash and Volatility Indexes

The Weekly Smart Cash Index, below, highlights the impressive rally recently and the upward sloping price channel that is back in play for price. The highlighted range of the upward sloping price channel is actually the lower half of the std deviation range of the 2016 to 2018 price channel. So, as of right now, the Smart Cash Index price level has yet to really breach the middle of this channel and is still only within the lower half of the channel. Still, the support near the lower boundary of this level has been retested two or three times over the past six months and held. This suggests the lower channel level (the lower heavy BLUE line) is now acting as moderate price support....Continue Reading Here.

Gold Wave Forecast - Is Gold Going to $3,750 or Higher?

Watching gold fall to recent lows over the past few weeks has been heartbreaking for gold bugs. We know the real value of precious metals has continued to be under appreciated over the past 24+ months – even though gold has rallied from $1165 to over $2085 (an incredible 79%). The recent 15% decline in gold has shaken some investors away from the longer term opportunities, so we wanted to share our research and highlight some simple Elliot Wave structures with you.

My research team and I believe the recent downward price trend in gold is an ideal setup for an intermediate wave 4 pullback of a broader wave 3 advance. In other words, we believe gold is in the midst of a broad advance cycle that may eventually push price levels to $5000 and above. But, we’ll focus on right now and what we believe is setting up from a technical analysis perspective.

The first thing to remember about Elliot Wave Analysis is that we must consider the broad market trends, the intermediate market trends, and the short term wave formations. With almost all types of technical analysis, we focus on different time perspectives of price trends and setups to help us better determine opportunities and outcomes....Continue Reading Here.

Gold's Momentous Rally from 2000 Compared to SPY and QQQ - Part I

My research team and I went off on a wild tangent trying to identify how the markets could react to the recent spike in price activity on Monday, November 9, 2020. This is the day that Pfizer announced a 90% effective rate with its new COVID-19 vaccine, causing the US stock market to skyrocket higher before the opening bell in New York. As with most pop and drops, this incredible upside spike trailed lower for the remainder of the trading day. My research team was curious if this type of setup presented any real future outcome or trends. To this end, we focused on the QQQ and the SPY in relationship to Gold.

9 to 9 1/2 Year Gold Depreciation Cycle Ended in 2018 – What’s Next? 

Gold has been and continues to be a store of value for many around the world. At some times in history, Gold becomes undervalued in comparison to other assets (like stocks, real estate, and other tangible assets). At other times, Gold becomes more highly valued in comparison to other assets. This cycle has taken place throughout hundreds of years of history, and is rooted in the changing perceptions of market participants regarding “what/where is true value in the markets”.

When other assets are skyrocketing higher, Gold is out of favor in terms of real demand. It may still be moving higher in value, but as long as other assets seem to be increasing in value faster than Gold, demand for Gold will diminish. When most other assets enter a time of great concern or devaluation, Gold and Precious Metals usually begin to see stronger demand as the ratio between Gold prices and more traditional investment assets may be near extremes....Continue Reading Here.

Gold and Silver Supercycles Explored

Heading into what will likely become one of the biggest events in American political history on November 3, the US stock markets are holding up quite well on Monday, November 2. My team and I have published a number of articles recently suggesting we believe wild price swings and increased volatility is to be expected before and after the US elections. 

We have even suggested a couple of stock trades that we believe should do fairly well 60+ days after the elections are complete. Right now, we want to bring your attention to the Silver Junior Miners ETF (SILJ).

The current Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in SILJ on the following Monthly chart has peaked our attention. Diminishing volume and moderately strong support above the $12 price level suggest key resistance near $15.05 will likely be retested as metals and miners continue to attract safe-haven capital after the elections. The Apex of the Pennant/Flag formation appears to be nearly complete – a breakout or breakdown move is pending. We believe the uncertainty of the elections will prompt a possible breakout (upside) price trend in the near future....Continue Reading Here.

Crude Oil Stalls in Resistance Zone

Clear Price Channel May Prompt Big Breakout or Breakdown Move in Oil

In this report, we discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks. While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation.

Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.

We believe the completed Pennant/Flag Apex, highlighted in Light Green on the Crude Oil Futures chart below, represents a technical pattern suggesting a new price trend is pending. The recent sideways price action, highlighted by the Gold Rectangle on this chart, shows the range of price recently that is currently presenting a very clear support level (near $36) and a very clear resistance level (near $42)....Continue Reading Here.

Learn Why Energy Stocks are Underperforming

Financial Survival Network Interview Highlights....

• After a 30 year rally in the bond market, interest rates can’t go much higher given the lack of trust resulting in marginal returns. 

• The lack of demand coupled with too much supply in the oil market has oil companies losing money   at these prices. Energy stocks have been underperforming which will likely continue until demand picks up or supply is significantly curtailed. 

• Any stock market weakness or strength in the US dollar will likely lead to $1,810 Gold and $21 Silver.

Listen To The Podcast Here 

Massive Dark Cloud Cover Pattern Above Critical Support - Will It Hold?

Research Highlights.... 

• A Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern that is typically associated with major top setups.

• Critical Support on the SPY highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.

• If price stays below the $339.95 level, then we interpret the trend as being Bearish. If price moves above the $343.55 level, it is Bullish.

Critical Support on the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335 - 335.25 is acting as a major support level. The rally in the markets that started late Sunday and carried forward into early trading on Monday, September 28, 2020, suggests the market is attempting to rally above this support level to establish a potential momentum base. 

My advanced price modeling systems and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs (originating from the 2009 bottom) have clearly identified this area as a critical resistance/support zone....Continue Reading Here. 

Gold Setting Up Just Like Before the Covid19 Breakdown Get Ready

Research Highlights....

• Gold rebounded quickly and broke to higher prices after the COVID deep selling.

• Our Fibonacci support levels for Gold are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790.

• More downside pressure on price is possible, but if support is maintained at $1,885 then we could see a big upside recovery trend take Gold to $2,250.

Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24. First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020. Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again – this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90.

What we found interesting is how quickly Gold prices recovered and broke to even higher price levels after this deep selling. Our belief is that when a crisis event first hits, which we sometimes call the “shock-wave”, all assets take a beating – including Gold and Silver. This is the event where traders and investors pull everything to CASH (closing positions). Then, as the shock-wave ends, traders re-evaluate the price levels of assets to determine how they want to deploy their capital....Continue Reading Here.

Global Markets Break Hard to the Downside - Watch These Support Levels

Research Highlights....

• New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell off.

• Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short term correction or the start of a downtrend.

• Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.

• Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.

U.S. and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations. The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all time highs again.

My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not organic. The U.S. Fed has spewed capital into the markets and speculative traders piled into the “excess phase” of the market to drive price levels higher. Take a moment to review these recent research posts to learn more....Continue Reading Here.

Platinum and Palladium Set to Surge as Gold Breaks Higher

Research Highlights....

* Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting

   another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher. 

* Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside 

   move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher. 

* Our next upside price target for platinum is $1,410, 

   representing a +52.4% upside price target. 

* Palladium bottom in March 2020 was near $1,357. We expect a new upside price target for Palladium

   near $3,663 once it has broken out past current resistance levels. 

If you have been following my research for a while, you are already aware of past research posts suggesting Gold and Silver will advance in multiple upside price legs over the next 90+ days. Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher. Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.

What you may not be aware of is the incredible opportunities setting up in Platinum and Palladium. Platinum has set up a very deep COVID-19 low near $550 and rallied back to briefly touch resistance near $1,035 as we can see in the Palladium Weekly chart below. Since that move, Platinum has stalled below $1,000 waiting for momentum to start another upside price leg. 

Using a simple 100% Fibonacci Measured move technique, we can easily identify the $485 price swing from the $1,035 highs to the $550 lows. All we need to do is find a support level near what we believe will be the Momentum Base level, then add that $485 to the Momentum Base level to find the next upside target in Platinum....Continue Reading Here.

It’s Go Time for Gold - Next Stop $2,250

Research Highlights....

* Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting

   up new momentum base near $1,925. 

* Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt 

   new Gold rally to $2,250.

* The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next

   4+ weeks.

The U.S. Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold. If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex. 

Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925 - $1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range. My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start of a momentum base rally targeting the $2,250 level or higher.....Continue Reading Here.