Could This Be Crude Oil's New Trading Range?

I couldn't resist posting this chart from one of my favorite swing traders Atilla and his blog xtrends. Atilla has become popular this year as a die hard bear, an unfair title as he is just a realistic trader that looks at long term trends. And yes it's true, we are still in a bear market.

Here is his current view on the trading range we are in for crude oil

Just click on the chart to enlarge.....

Crude Oil Trading Small Specs

If you haven't visited or subscribed to Rich Olney's "Crude Oil Trading Small Specs" site, it's time you did. Rich provides some of the best crude oil trading calls available, worth every bit of the small fee he charges.

Here is his weekend call for June 20th....

"Crude Oil Thoughts"

Oh so close to a sell signal on the daily but not yet. The daily is still on a buy. Every pull back has been a buy so is this time diff? If the FED stays the course, which I think they will, Crude should make new highs before the pull back happens that everyone is looking for. I will add more to this string later but the commercials increased their OI last week and reduced their net short position as well not bearish action by any means. Also the USO chart is misleading since it is the second derivative and we are in contango market use the futures contract..........(USO chart paints a diff picture).

I think we can get the big sell off many are looking for if the FED changes their bias statement to indicate a move away from quantitative easing (QE). The current US QE policy is the main reason for the oil rise and dollar weakness. So that is what oil traders will be looking for a change to the current QE policy in the Wednesday FED statement. If no change to QE policy then more of the same declining dollar and rising crude oil. So if you are shorting oil looking for an IT move down then you are betting that the FED will change their QE stance on Wednesday IMHO.

You can see on the chart below from the 2008 bull market that 38.2% and 50% retracements on the daily chart were par for the course and a buying opportunity every single time. Buying the pull backs at the the 38.2% and 50% retracements was the way to go till the trendline on the daily broke.

Crude is currently at the 50% retrace at 69.90 which is the half way mark between the previous swing low at 65.92 and swing high at 73.90. So my point is the daily trend line is not broken, and we are at the 50% from the last swing low to swing high which when looking at the last bull market was a golden opportunity to buy. That's what has me long here despite all the bearishness on crude.....Click Here For His Complete Post and Charts

Eric Bolling: Street Meat, Got gas?

I don't know about you but I miss Eric Bolling on CNBC. Seems like they dump anyone with a mind of their own. You can't argue this, Eric Bolling knows the energy sector. Check out this video from Fox Business, Street Meat, are oil prices surging?

Crude Oil Post Key Reversal Down Day on Friday

Crude oil posted a key reversal down on Friday and closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.72 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is today's low crossing at 68.90
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.33

Energy Prices Drop, With Gas Leading The Way

Benchmark crude for July delivery dropped $1.09 to $70.28 a barrel on Friday in light trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as the contract was set to close Monday.

The August contract fell $1.18 to $70.73 a barrel.

The slump in crude came as gasoline markets showed the first signs this week that an extended rally in pump prices is nearing an end after 52 straight days of price increases.

Gasoline for July delivery fell 6.85 cents Friday to $1.9610 a gallon.

Crude prices have doubled their value in three months, hitting a high for the year of $73.23 a barrel last week.....Complete Story

Crude Attempts To Extend Trading Range To The Upside

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the current narrow trading range, which began last Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with the overnight rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July resumes this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.46 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point for crude oil is 71.10

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.46

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

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Natural Gas Rally Appears to be on Hold

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.892 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.948
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.893

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Thursday Proves To Be Consolidation Day For Crude Oil

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short
term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.90

Analyst: Crude Oil Market Looking Tired Here

"Oil Fluctuates on Signals Recession Easing, Fuel Supplies Gain"
Crude oil fluctuated in New York after reports signaled that the U.S. recession is easing and as fuel inventories increased. Oil climbed from the day’s lows after manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted in June at the slowest pace in nine months. U.S. supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, rose last week, the Energy Department said yesterday. “The market is looking a bit tired here,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The fundamentals are really poor, with poor demand and excess supply. The recent rally has priced in quite a lot of good news that hasn’t had any impact on the energy.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Continues Narrow Trading Range

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the current narrow trading range, which began last Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.89 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July resumes this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil, our line in the sand is 70.37

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.89

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target.

Thursday pivot point for natural gas is 4.19

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.968
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.903

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