The Crude Oil Trader

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Brace For It, Oil Will Continue To Fall

With oil hovering around $60, Randy Rothberg of Battalion Capital predicts a continued decline in oil prices.

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Oil Rebounds From Seven Week Low as Slump Is Viewed as Overdone

Crude oil rebounded from a seven week low as traders took the view that the decline in prices during the longest losing streak this year was overdone. Oil snapped a six day slump as traders bought contracts based on technical indicators. Crude has fallen below $62.55 a barrel yesterday, the lower resistance level of the Bollinger Band, indicating it was oversold. “In the short term, $60 may be the intraday support level, but in the longer term we have to go back to fundamentals, which are weak.....Complete Story

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China's Oil Firms Accelerate Acquisitions

China's leading oil companies have boosted overseas acquisitions during the first half of 2009 because of increased domestic demand and falling prices, a Shanghai Securities News report stated Tuesday. China, the world's second largest consumer of energy, depends on imported oil for nearly half of its needs. China's oil consumption has grown approximately 5 percent annually in recent years. Its sales of passenger vehicles rose 47 percent in May.....Complete Story

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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Below Key Retracement Levels

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 62.20 as it extended this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 58.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 66.95
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.86

First support is today's low crossing at 60.01
Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 58.58.

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's breakout below April's low crossing at 3.52. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.947 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.72
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.95

First support is today's low crossing at 3.34
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16

US Moves to Shackle Oil Speculators

The solution to perceived market manipulation is overt market manipulation. That's what federal regulators are saying with Tuesday's announcement that they will consider curtailing "excessive speculation" in energy markets. The move comes in response to last year's spike in oil prices, which soared to a record $145 a barrel a year ago next week and pushed gasoline prices above $4 at the pump in many parts of the country. Since the start of this year.....Complete Story

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New Video For The DOW...."Perception Indicates That the Bear is Back"

We have just finished a new video on the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DOW) that we would like to share with you.

This may be a short video, but I think you’ll get a lot out it. We will analyze what’s going on right now in the DOW, how it has developed over the last six months, and where we expect the DOW to go in the next six months.

As we have discussed before, perception is everything in the marketplace. We believe that perception is beginning to change in this market and the bears are back.

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Oil Falls for Sixth Day on Forecasts U.S. Gasoline Supply Rose

Crude oil fell for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since December, before a government report that is forecast to show U.S. fuel inventories increased. Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably climbed, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Energy Department report. Yesterday, the industry funded American Petroleum Institute said stockpiles of gasoline rose.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Lower Overnight, Due For Consolidation Day

Crude oil was lower overnight and spiked below the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off last week's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 58.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 63.12

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.19
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.98

First support is the overnight low crossing at 61.87
Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 58.58

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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Natural Closes Lower, Sets up Likely Lower Open For Wednesday

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below April's low crossing at 3.52 as it extended the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.971 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.77
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.97

First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.37
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16

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