Energy Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

September crude oil closed down $0.36 at $65.25 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

September natural gas closed up 11.6 cents at $3.962 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh three week high today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. The bears are still in technical control.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 191 points at $1.8150 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 18 points at 78.91 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Prices hit a fresh nine month low again today. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

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NYMEX Crude Steadies Above $65

Gaining on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the sixth day in a row, crude oil rallied above $65 on Wednesday as earnings reports continue to beat Wall Street's expectations and government data released today shows crude oil supplies were down last week. U.S. crude oil futures for September delivery settled at $65.40, or 68 cents higher than Tuesday's close. Also gaining, London Brent crude climbed above $65 in seesaw trading, finally closing at more than $67 per barrel.....Complete Story

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Natural Gas Futures Gain on Signs of Small Stockpile Increase Share

Natural gas futures advanced in New York on speculation a report tomorrow will show a slowing pace of U.S. stockpile gains. Gas inventories probably rose 66 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. An increase of that amount would be the smallest since April 17. Stockpiles normally rise between April and November as utilities prepare for higher demand in the winter.
“This week it’s a very different number,” said Teri Viswanath, director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston.....Complete Story

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Citigroup Recommends Investment in Mexican Oil Giant

Banking giant Citigroup recommends investment in Mexican state run oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) via its dollar denominated bonds. The firm urged investors to "hold" the bonds, reversing a previous recommendation to sell, Mexican media reported on Monday. However, the Citigroup did not give its highest rating of "overweight" to Pemex because of some negative operating data, the bank said in a report. Pemex's biggest oil field, Cantarell, has now had five consecutive years of production declines, bringing the company's overall production to its lowest level in 16 years.....Complete Story

Oil Headed Lower on Major Bank Earnings Reports

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extended the rally off last week's low and was challenging the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67. But is now headed lower as worse then expected earnings from the major banks are giving traders concerns over future demand. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.

Crude oil's pivot point, our line in the sand is 65.41

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67
Second resistance is the overnight high crossing at 65.53

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.62. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.520 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.68

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.62
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.52

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Where Is Oil Headed on Wednesday

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed on Wednesday.




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Natural Gas Ready To Rebound

Kent Croft, co-manager of the Croft Value Fund, says natural gas is too cheap to ignore. His favorite stocks include Southwestern Energy, Ultra Petroleum and Williams Cos.



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Oil Gains for 5th Day, Natural Gas Sees Potential

After choppy trading Tuesday, crude oil was able to make gains again on the New York Mercantile Exchange. With intra-day trading topping $65, oil prices eventually settled just below that. Crude oil settled at $64.72 a barrel in trading on the NYMEX Tuesday, a bump of 74 cents from Monday's close. Despite some volatile trading during the day and the expiration of the August deliveries, crude oil was able to continue its recent rally for the fifth day in a row."It seesawed pretty dramatically, and then the market did rebound strongly as we went into the last half-hour for expiration; and I think that helped boost oil prices to its fifth consecutive day gains,".....Complete Story

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Profit Taking Tempers Early Gains in Crude Oil, Natural Gas Closes Higher

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.67 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the last half of July. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 73.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.54
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.627. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.483 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.48
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.23

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