Crude Oil Post Downside Reversal on U.S. Dollar Strength

Crude oil posted a downside reversal due to profit taking on Friday as consolidated some of this week's gains. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 72.84
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.28
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.77

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Natural gas closed lower on Friday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.756 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.459 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.26

First support is today's low crossing at 3.66
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.46

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Oil Falls From 5 Week High, Gasoline Tumbles, as Dollar Climbs

Crude oil fell from a five week high and gasoline tumbled as the dollar increased against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil slipped as the greenback rose versus the currencies of six of the country’s major trading partners. Oil prices climbed as much 1.3 percent earlier today as a government report showed that U.S. job losses slowed and that the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped for the first time since April 2008. “We rose initially at the release of the jobs data, but oil turned around once the dollar got stronger,” said Tom Bentz a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. "Prices are still close to $72, which is too high given where supply and demand are".....Complete Story

N.Y. Natural Gas Rises as Unemployment Drop May Signal Recovery

Natural gas rose in New York, heading for the third weekly gain in four weeks, after a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate signaled that demand may soon recover from the worst economic slump since the Great Depression. Gas rose after the jobless rate fell for the first time since April 2008, a Labor Department report today showed. Factory payrolls fell 52,000, the fewest in a year. Industrial users account for about 29 percent of U.S. gas demand.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Rallies on Better Then Expected Employment Numbers

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight but has rallied this morning as markets look to better than expected U.S. July employment data as a clue that the United States could be emerging from recession. Oil extends this week's narrow trading range as stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 71.47

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.35
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.760 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.045 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.

Nat gas pivot point for Friday is 3.85

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.76
Second support is the overnight low crossing at 3.71

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The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally and remains below the lower boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 78.83. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends the decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 79.77 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.49
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.52
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally at 75.73

Oil Is Set for Fourth Weekly Gain on Economic Recovery Optimism

Crude oil traded near $72 a barrel, poised for a fourth weekly gain on optimism the outlook for a global economic recovery has improved. Oil is set to rise 3.2 percent this week as U.S. equities gained and the dollar weakened, increasing investor demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached a nine month high on Aug. 5. “The recent combination of a marked improvement in global business sentiment and a weaker dollar has proved a potent mix for commodities".....Complete Story

Crude Oil Closes Higher Extending This Weeks Rally

Crude oil closed slightly lower on Thursday as the market extends this week's trading range. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.28 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.02
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.28

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Natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.747 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.716 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.75
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.46

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Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook from Oil N Gold

With an intraday top in place at 4.162, intraday outlook in natural gas remains neutral for the moment. While another rise cannot be ruled out as long as 3.603 minor support holds, note that since the current rise from 3.519 is treated as part of consolidation that started at 3.155, upside should be limited by 4.387/575 resistance zone and bring reversal. Break of 3.603 will in turn indicate that rebound from 3.519 has completed and flip bias back to the downside for 3.155/225 support zone. In the bigger picture.....Complete Story

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Gas Glut May Grow as XTO, Devon Wells Prove Prolific

The largest U.S. natural gas producers may be doing too well at the wellhead for their own good, pumping so much of the heating and power plant fuel that prices won’t soon recover from last year’s market collapse. XTO Energy Inc. and Devon Energy Corp., two of the five largest producers of U.S. gas, yesterday reported record output and smaller declines in earnings than analysts estimated. Anadarko Petroleum Corp., London based BP Plc and Chesapeake Energy Corp. previously reported second quarter output gains that helped them beat estimates.....Complete Story

Oil, Natural Gas Market Commentary For Thursday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.27 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday is 71.19

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.00
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.27

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight and is poised to extend this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.05 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.

If September renews last week's decline, July's low crossing at 3.366 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 4.00

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.84
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.76

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Has the ‘Gold Bull’ finally arrived?

Is this the Gold move we’ve all been waiting for?

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