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Monday, August 17, 2009
Commerzbank: Oil May Drop to Test $63
Crude oil may drop to test a support line around $63 a barrel in New York should it fail to reach two key targets above $74, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG. Oil has failed to re attain this year’s high of $73.23 a barrel reached on June 11. A fresh rally will be capped in a range between $74.54, the 200 week moving average, and $76.28, a critical level using so called Fibonacci analysis, Commerzbank said. Failure to breach these points may send crude plunging toward a support line connecting the lowest prices of the past six months, the bank said. "We would allow for probes into this key overhead resistance band, but would again allow for initial failure" Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones said in a report yesterday. "Failure here would once again cast attention back to support offered by the six month uptrend".....Complete Story
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AG,
Bloomberg,
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Fibonnaci,
Karen Jones
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Oil Falls to a Two Week Low on Reduced Demand, Stockpile Gain
Crude oil fell to the lowest in more than two weeks as reduced demand and rising stockpiles in the U.S. will ensure adequate supplies during the North Atlantic hurricane season. Oil traded below $70 a barrel for a second day after an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence and reports showed gasoline demand in the nation at the lowest in more than 12 weeks. Tropical Storm Claudette, which will be the first to make landfall in the U.S. this season, is expected to cross the coast of Florida “very soon,” according to the National Hurricane Center.....Complete Story
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Barrel,
consumer confidence,
Crude Oil,
Gasoline,
hurricane season
The First Step in Trading Oil ETF's
Everyday I get emails and questions from traders and investors about trading crude oil using ETF's. And unfortunately most have had a bad experience with trading these ETF's based on crude oil futures because they did not do their homework first. Unlike equities, which entitle the holder to a continuing stake in a corporation, commodity futures contracts specify a delivery date for an underlying physical commodity.
Very important to understand is the Dow Jones—UBS Commodity Index. It uses the settlement prices for the underlying futures contracts. The DJ—AIGCI rolls its contracts over the course of 5 consecutive business days, starting on the 6th business day of the month. Each day, 20% of each futures position that is included in the month’s roll is rolled. Not all contracts are rolled every month.
Before you take another step trading crude oil ETF's such as DXO, DTO, SCO and UCO read and download "A Primer on Index Calculation and Performance".
Visit INO TV Options Channel
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Petrobras Profit Falls to 7.73 Billion Reais on Oil
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state controlled oil company, reported second quarter profit fell less than analysts estimated amid a decline in oil prices. Consolidated net income dropped to 7.73 billion reais ($4.19 billion), or 88 centavos a share, from 9.72 billion reais, or 1.11 reais, in the year earlier period, the Rio de Janeiro based company known as Petrobras said today in a statement. Six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast an average profit of 6.23 billion reais. Petrobras is seeking to increase production to boost cash generation, as the average price of crude in the quarter fell 47 percent to $63.01 a barrel from a year earlier.....Complete Story
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analyst,
Bloomberg,
Brazil,
Oil Company,
Petrobras
Friday, August 14, 2009
Gasoline May Fall to $1.76 Within a Month: Technical Analysis
Gasoline futures may fall from $2.02 a gallon to $1.76 by mid-September and below $1.35 by the end of the year, according to technical analysis by Infinity Trading.com. The front month gasoline contract is poised for a slide to $1.9575 within seven to 10 days and then $1.7619 within 30 days, said Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading.com, a commodities brokerage in Medford, Oregon. Prices may then reach the April low of $1.3411, he said. “We’re coming out of the peak demand time, we’ve seen the highs in the market and could be setting up for a pretty good fall,” Shaffer said in an interview. “I think we may have seen a peak in the market at $2.08. The next objective is $1.95 and from there we could free fall.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil,
Gasoline,
Infinity Trading,
technical analysis
China Cashes In On Overseas Shopping Spree
The second largest energy consumer, China is quickly becoming one of the most significant energy players in the world. Increasingly in need of fossil fuels to power its burgeoning economy, China's state owned oil companies have sought to acquire oil and gas access rights beyond its borders, snapping up additional reserves that span both hemispheres. Already this year both offshore oil and gas producer China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC)and refining heavyweight China Petrochemical Corp. (Sinopec) have purchased international assets that will bulk up its already hefty cache of petroleum resources. Respectively, the two companies have acquired stakes in overseas portfolios that include blocks in West Africa and the Middle East.....Complete Story
Oil Falls After U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Declines
Crude oil dropped after a report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in August for a second consecutive month, bolstering skepticism that fuel demand will rebound this year. Oil fell as much as 1.8 percent after the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 63.2 from 66 in July. Oil also declined because the dollar gained against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities to investors looking for an inflation hedge. “Consumers are worried about the economy, and that’s raising concerns about demand,” said Phil Flynn.....Complete Story
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consumer sentiment,
consumers,
Crude Oil,
Phil Flynn
Energy Market Technical Analysis from PCIFX
Crude oil price surged to as high as 72.21 after the Eurozone's GDP in 2Q09 showed much smaller contraction than previously anticipated. However, the benchmark contract trimmed gains as both US' retail sales and jobless claims disappointed the market. The gauge finished the day at 70.52, +0.5%.
While heating oil added +0.6% to 1.9, gasoline price dropped -0.3% to 2.02. Natural gas lost -4.1% to close at 3.34 despite lower-than-expected increase in gas supplies. US retail sales declined -0.1% mom in July, worse than consensus of +0.5%, after rising +0.8% in the prior month. The figure was very disappointing this was already helped by the government's 'cash for clunkers' program. Excluding auto, the regains plunged -0.5%, following a gain of +0.5% in June.
Initial jobless claims rose to 558K in the week ended August 8 from 550K a week ago. The market had expected a decline to 540K. In fact, the result was not as bad as the market interpreted. Continuing claims dropped to 6.2M in the week ended August 1 from 6.3M in the prior week while insured unemployment rate declined to 4.7% from 4.8%. These suggested the employment condition has improved.
Natural gas storage increased +63 bcf to 3152 bcf in the week ended August 7. This was lower than market expectation of +66 bcf. However, NYMEX gas futures still plunged to the lowest in 4 weeks. This was because supplies have increased +23% from the same period last year while the rise in storage has widened to 19.6% from 5-year average from 19.1% in the previous week.
The precious metal complex rose Thursday as USD declined. The gold futures climbed +0.4% to 956.5 while the silver contract soared to 2-month high at 15.15 before settling at 14.99, +2.8%. USD slid against major currencies as investors believed that weak US data would reinforce the Fed's stance to keep interest rate low for a long time. Moreover, the dollar plummeted against the euro as the 16-nation region's GDP in the second quarter contracted only -0.1% qoq, compared with consensus of -0.5%, after a sharp fall by -2.5% in the first quarter. There have been talks about risk appetite and dollar movement since the beginning of the year.
Seemingly, it's true for most of the time that risk aversion leads to rise in USD while increase in risk appetite leads to decline in USD. However, statistics tells us this is not always the case. More importantly, we have seen the opposite happened several times recently. For instance, better than expected non-farm payrolls data in June and August boosted sentiment and increased risk appetite. However, USD rallied, rather than plunged. This was because strong US economic data fueled speculations on Fed rate hike. In fact, risk aversion is not always USD-positive.
Overview:
Despite continued weakness in the US dollar and higher equity market crude closed near flat yesterday. This reluctance of the energy complex in reacting to the bullish guidance from financial markets could be interpreted with the EIA stats data. For weeks the supply/demand balance has been on the bearish side and in the face of increasing talks of a sooner than expected recovery in the US economy a respective significant improvement in crude demand is yet to be seen. And that's bound to make a few bulls nervous.
Technical Report:
We saw crude moving higher in early trading reaching an intraday high of $72.22 and it seemed the market is on course oh challenging last weeks high of $72.88 on Aug 7th. However the rally was followed by profit taking as bulls were not ready to stay in the market for too long pushing crude price back into negative territory. The session finished near flat with crude toying again with the 9 day moving average and technically remaining on a path of consolidation.
The short and medium term trends are bullish while the long term trend is bearish.
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PCIFX
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Mid-Day Technical Analysis For Energy Market from Oil N' Gold
Crude oil breached the neckline for the bullish technical pattern, mentioned in the morning report, insuring the breach through our technical updates, where oil stabilized and is heading towards achieving the breach targets between 73.00 - 73.50 and then continuing the upside move towards the upside channel's resistance level around 74.20. Achieving this upside and reaching expected targets require for trading to remain above 70.60. The trading range for today is among the key support at 65.05 and the key resistance at 74.20. The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 76.25.....Complete Story
Oil and Gas Technically Speaking
From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen, The Gold and Oil Guy!
Commodities continue to trade at their pivot points while the pressure rises!
USO Oil Fund – Weekly Trend Chart
Oil is trending sideways and taking a breather. I expect to see a breakout to the up side but this could still be a few weeks away. I will keep an eye on it for a low risk entry point.
UNG Natural Gas Fund
Natural gas is still trending down which can be seen clearly on the weekly chart. The farther gas continues to sell down, the larger the bounce/potential we will have in the future. Don’t rush this trade; let’s wait for it to come to us.
Technical Traders Conclusion:
The broad market put in a solid bounce today as buyers stepped back in to accumulate shares. Gold and silver are trying to find support to start a new leg higher.
Silver is leading the way which is always a good sign for gold and gold stocks.
Energy is not looking as hot, but once we see natural gas bottom and start heading higher it should be fun. We continue to focus on low risk setups for gold and silver while we wait for some signals from energy sector to come our way.
If you would like to receive Free Weekly Technical Traders Charts visit The Gold and Oil Guy
Commodities continue to trade at their pivot points while the pressure rises!
USO Oil Fund – Weekly Trend Chart
Oil is trending sideways and taking a breather. I expect to see a breakout to the up side but this could still be a few weeks away. I will keep an eye on it for a low risk entry point.
UNG Natural Gas Fund
Natural gas is still trending down which can be seen clearly on the weekly chart. The farther gas continues to sell down, the larger the bounce/potential we will have in the future. Don’t rush this trade; let’s wait for it to come to us.
Technical Traders Conclusion:
The broad market put in a solid bounce today as buyers stepped back in to accumulate shares. Gold and silver are trying to find support to start a new leg higher.
Silver is leading the way which is always a good sign for gold and gold stocks.
Energy is not looking as hot, but once we see natural gas bottom and start heading higher it should be fun. We continue to focus on low risk setups for gold and silver while we wait for some signals from energy sector to come our way.
If you would like to receive Free Weekly Technical Traders Charts visit The Gold and Oil Guy
Labels:
Crude Oil,
Natural Gas,
newsletter,
risk,
The Gold and Oil Guy,
UNG,
USO
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