Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's remains soft today and is struggling around 75.57 support. As noted before, with 80.51 resistance intact, short term risks remain on the downside, below 75.57 will bring deeper decline towards 61.8% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 71.52 next.

In the bigger picture, we'd continue to slightly favor the bearish case as long as 80.51 resistance holds. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 70.60) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. Further break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.....Here is the charts!

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Near term outlook in natural gas is quite mixed for the moment. But after all, with 5.318 resistance, we'd slightly favor the case that it has topped out already and favor another fall. Below 4.157 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 5.318 at 3.52 first.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The break of 55 days EMA, even though it's brief so far, suggests that rebound from 2.409 is possibly just a corrective rise only and may have completed after failing to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Deeper decline could now be seen for a retest of 2.409 support first. On the upside, break of 5.318 resistance is needed to revive the case that Natural gas has bottomed in medium to longer term.....Here are the charts!

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Land Rig Count Recovery Continues: What Goes Down Must Come Up

Driven by a confluence of factors including the credit crunch, commodity price collapse and widespread economic malaise, the U.S. land rig count decline witnessed between August 2008 and June 2009 was by far the most devastating downturn of the last 20 years. On a percentage basis, the recent downturn was similar to the 1998-1999 downturn, it just occurred in half the time. In absolute terms, more than twice as many rigs fell out of the rig count in the 2008-2009 downturn than in each of the last two major collapses.

However, the recovery so far has been promising, and in the five months since the downturn, the rig count has recovered by 241 rigs or 29%. In absolute terms, this is more than in the first five months of either of the prior two recoveries. On a percentage basis, the current rebound is unfolding faster than the 2001-2002 recovery but not as quickly as the 1998-1999 recovery. The table below summarizes the last three downturns and the five month periods following the troughs.



Rig Count Likely Headed Higher, but Risks Abound
Although a general consensus has formed that the land rig count will continue to increase during 2010, it would be wise to balance optimism with a sense of caution in the current recovery. While the recovery periods in each of the last two cycles generally exhibited an up and to the right pattern (for two and six years respectively), the present upturn is occurring in a noisy environment where multiple variables could take a course that would result in a plateauing rig count or possibly even a second bottom.....read the entire article.

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Oil Falls as Economic Growth Revised Lower, Supplies May Gain

Crude oil fell after a report showed that the U.S. economy grew at a slower level than previously estimated, and on forecasts that supplies gained. Oil retreated after the Commerce Department said that the economy expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, down from a 3.5 percent increase initially stated. The U.S. Energy Department will probably report tomorrow that crude oil supplies grew by 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 20, according to a Bloomberg News survey. “As long as there are tepid headlines about the economy, oil is going to be under pressure,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy with MF Global in New York. “We seem to be attracted to the lower end of the recent range and will probably test it before long.”

Crude oil for January delivery declined $1.48, or 1.9 percent, to $76.08 a barrel at 10:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have gained 71 percent this year. Transactions may be lighter than normal because of this week’s U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. There will be no trading on Nov. 26 and floor trading will end early on Nov. 27. “I’m not getting excited about anything I see this week as far as price action is concerned,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “Volume and liquidity are down, so volatility is going to be through the roof”.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Finding the Trend in Forex

Here is the fastest and easiest way to tell the trend in the foreign exchange markets.

In today’s video we are going to share with you a wonderful way to look at the forex markets and determine which way they are headed in a matter of seconds. We’ll be looking at three different cross rates and how they all correlate together in a way that I think may surprise you.

The forex markets are the biggest markets in the world and MarketClub not only covers all of them, but also covers them in real time with pricing and charts. I hope you learn from this video and take the time to post your comments on our blog.

Just click here to watch the video and as always there is no charge and no registration to watch this educational trading video.

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO Crude Oil Trader

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Oil Little Changed Before Report Forecast to Show Supply Gain

Crude oil traded little changed around $77 a barrel before a report forecast to show that higher than normal crude inventories grew last week in the U.S. The U.S. Energy Department will probably report tomorrow that stockpiles grew by 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 20, according to a Bloomberg survey. Analysts were split over the change in supplies of distillate fuels such as heating oil and diesel, which are 28 percent above the seasonal average.

“At least until the end of the year we see $80 as the top of the range,” said Tobias Merath, a commodity analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Zurich. “What’s limiting the potential in the short term is the supply glut in the distillate market.” Crude oil for January delivery traded for $77.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, 4 cents lower, as of 11:16 a.m. London time. Oil, which rose as high as $79.92 yesterday, has failed to close above $80 since Nov. 4. Futures have gained 73 percent this year. Oil was capped by strengthening in the U.S. dollar, which often limits the appeal of commodities for hedging inflation. The dollar traded at $1.4946 per euro at 11:15 a.m. in London, from $1.4961 yesterday in New York.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Rises on Weaker Dollar, Iranian Military Exercise

Crude oil rose as a weaker dollar heightened the appeal of commodities to investors and an Iranian military exercise bolstered concern that Middle Eastern supplies may be disrupted. Oil climbed as much as 3.2 percent and gold reached a record as the greenback dropped on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus measures in place and ensure interest rates remain at virtually zero. Iran is testing an air defense system this week, in a military exercise to assess the vulnerability of its nuclear plants.

“The primary reason for today’s move is that the dollar is in steady retreat,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The drumbeat from Iran seems to also be giving prices a boost.” Crude oil for January delivery rose $1.64, or 2.1 percent, to $79.11 a barrel at 11:43 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 77 percent this year. The December contract expired on Nov. 20 at $76.72 a barrel. Oil traded between $74.79 and $82 the past five weeks after surging in early October.....Read the entire article.

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ETF Update - Gold, Silver and Oil Out Perform their Equities?

Since the market crash in late 2008 we have seen investors favor quality stocks that pay dividends and have steady earnings. Fast growth companies and equities with physical resources like commodities have also done well.

Let’s examine the monthly charts of gold, silver, oil and natural gas, and observe how they have traded in comparison to their mining equities

Gold – Monthly Chart
Looking at the monthly chart as far back as 2004, we see that gold has formed the same patterns repeatedly. This has created a stair step pattern and allows us to calculate measured moves and a time frame for this to take place.

As we can see gold has broken its 2008 high and is starting another rally which we have seen several times before. I figure we could see gold rally for another 3-5 months and possibly reach the $1500 -$1600 level before forming a multi month or year consolidation.

Investors around the world are buying gold because it is a physical product which has been proven to hold its value.


Silver & Precious Metal Stocks – Monthly Chart
Silver and PM stocks have been trading in tandem since 2004 and we can see this by looking at a price performance chart of both silver and the HUI index. The interesting part is that the physical commodity silver has held its value better than the stocks during corrections.
Apparently investors prefer tangible investments over stock certificates of mining companies in periods of increased volitility. Lower risk is in the commodity.


Oil – Monthly Chart
Crude oil has held its value over energy stocks for the majority of the time since 2003. And currently, investors are more comfortable holding oil as a safe investment over energy stocks.


Natural Gas – Monthly Chart
Natural gas is the energy sector’s underdog in my eyes. The world has found so much natural gas in the ground and discovered cost effective ways to collect gas that it will continue to see investors move away until inventory start to deplete.


Commodity Trading Conclusion:
Investors around the world continue to put money into gold which is a universal hedge against inflation. The broad market appears to be trading at a major resistance level. Tops in the market generally take a much longer than to reverse directions than market bottoms. We will not knot for sure if we are entering a top for a couple months as the charts unfold. Now that commodities are trading back at reasonable levels I think they will hold up better than equities if the market starts to correct.

We continue to enter low risk setups and trade with this strong up trend but are aware that we must be protected and focus on the lower risk plays.

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New Video: A Look at the Dollar Index

The markets are always interesting, but they are particularly interesting right now.

Today we’re looking at the dollar index and some important elements that we see building in this market and want to bring to your attention. In this short video we outline the key areas to watch for and one important component that you may not have seen. We think this factor could, in fact, be a short term game changer for this market.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our MarketClub videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a moment to let our readers know where you think the U.S. Dollar is headed.

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

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New Video: Crude Oil Market Update

In our new video on crude oil we update some of the thoughts we have recently published, but also some important elements that are still in play and could push this market significantly higher.

In this new video we outline the key support zone that we see and also highlight some other technical elements could come into play to push this market higher.

Just click here to watch the video, and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a moment to leave a comment and let our readers where you think oil is headed.

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

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Crude Oil Falls a Second Day as Dollar Gains, Equities Drop

Crude oil fell for a second day as the dollar strengthened against the euro and global equity markets declined. Oil slipped as much as 1.6 percent as the U.S. currency advanced for the third time in four days. Stocks and equity futures retreated after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers will withdraw emergency cash gradually to avoid fueling inflation, and Dell Inc.’s earnings trailed analysts’ estimates.

“We will take oil prices down another notch because of the strengthening dollar,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, a Galena, Illinois, consultant. “Things are bearish everywhere you look.” Crude oil for December delivery fell $1.20, or 1.6 percent, to $76.26 a barrel at 9:11 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are little changed this week and 71 percent higher this year. The December contract expires today. The more actively traded January contract fell $1.09, or 1.4 percent, to $76.96 a barrel. Oil dropped 2.7 percent yesterday as the greenback gained and on concern the rally in commodities and equities has outpaced the prospects for economic growth.....Read the entire article.

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