Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed down $1.65 at $76.72 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today, amid a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker U.S. stock indexes. Crude prices have been trending lower from the mid-October high. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at last week's low of $72.39.

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Natural gas closed down 22.6 cents at $4.536 today. Prices closed near the session low and set another fresh contract low today. Bulls have faded badly after showing some power recently. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum this week. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $5.29.

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The U.S. dollar index closed up 29 points at 75.05 today. Prices closed near the session high on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 76.50.

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Crude Oil, Gasoline Tumble After U.S. Supplies Climb, Demand Drops

Crude oil and gasoline tumbled after a government report showed that inventories climbed last week as consumption declined. Supplies of crude oil rose 2.09 million barrels to 339.9 million, the highest level since August, the Energy Department said today. Gasoline supplies surged 4 million barrels to 214.1 million. Fuel demand slipped 2.6 percent as refineries reduced operating rates for the fourth time in five weeks.

“Prices should be much lower given how high inventories are,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural resource bond portfolio as senior managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. “There’s certainly no lack of oil. If I were an oil producer, I would be very happy because the fundamentals don’t justify these prices.” Crude oil for January delivery fell $1.69, or 2.2 percent, to $76.68 a barrel at 11:54 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $77.70 before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Gasoline for January delivery declined 4.71 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $1.9952 a gallon in New York. Heating oil for January delivery slipped 3.25 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $2.0455 a gallon.....Read the entire article.

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Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil and Natural Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

At this point, intraday bias in crude oil remains on the upside with 75.18 minor support intact. Rise from 72.23 is still in favor to continue. Break of 80.51 resistance will indicate that choppy consolidations from 82.0 has completed already and the medium term rally could be resuming for 82.0 and beyond. On the downside, below 75.18 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for trend line support at 70.97.

In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling and the choppy price actions from 82.0 so far dampen our bearish view. Instead, the corrective natural of the fall from 82.0 to 72.39 suggests that it's merely consolidation in the medium term rise. That is, rally from 33.2 is possibly not completed yet and a break of 80.51 will affirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Outlook in natural gas remains unchanged. Recent price actions should be consolidations to rise from 2.409 only and hence, we'd continue to anticipate an upside break out sooner or later. Above 5.318 will confirm that whole rebound from 2.409 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Further will now remain in favor as long as 4.157 support holds, towards 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will indicate dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If January renews the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 is the next downside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 78.14

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.60
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.88

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.39
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 4.560 is the next downside target.

If January renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 5.413 is the next upside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 4.771

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.833
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.290

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.659
Second support is November's low crossing at 4.560

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.29. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.52 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.29
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.52

First support is last week's low crossing at 74.55
Second support is monthly support crossing at 73.39

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Where is Crude Oil and Commodities Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $1.09 at $78.37 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today, amid a weaker U.S. dollar and higher U.S. stock indexes. While serious chart damage was inflicted in January crude oil on Friday, prices this week have made a solid rebound to repair most of that damage. Still, prices have been trending lower from the mid-October high.

Natural gas closed down 10.5 cents at $4.745 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls have faded badly after showing some power recently. Bears have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum this week.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 49 points at 74.79 today. Prices closed near the session low today and are right back down near the contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 76.50.

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MarketClub Members ALERT: Daily Trade Triangle Now Positive On Gold

Here is a freebie for all non members....

Attention all MarketClub Members:

A daily Trade Triangle flashed a short term entry signal on spot gold this morning at $1,185.70. Please use money management stops and be aware of the risks involved.



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Crude Oil Rises as Chinese Manufacturing Growth Accelerates

Crude oil rose after a report showed Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in five years, bolstering hopes that fuel demand will increase in the world’s second biggest energy consuming country. Oil advanced as much as 2 percent after the purchasing managers’ index for China, released today by HSBC Holdings Plc, rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.7 from 55.4, the highest since April 2004. OPEC oil output climbed 0.4 percent to 28.9 million barrels a day last month, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

“The Chinese manufacturing number is very strong and points to higher energy demand in the months ahead,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “The Chinese headlines were enough to outweigh reports that OPEC is increasing production.”

Crude oil for January delivery gained $1.05, or 1.4 percent, to $78.33 a barrel at 10:05 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $78.85, the highest since Nov. 23. Prices are up 76 percent this year. Oil tumbled 2.5 percent on Nov. 27 after Dubai World, a government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, sought to delay repayments. The company has begun what it described as “constructive” talks with banks to restructure $26 billion.....Read the entire article.

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SP500 Update - Trend Change and Key Levels to Watch

Well here we are in the month of December and things can get pretty tricky this month. For this reason, we wanted to produce a video that we thought would be helpful to you during this time.

In our new video we show you the exact points that we’re looking at for a major trend change in the S&P 500. We also point out the exact number that will show an exit point, but not a major trend change, in this same index.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register and we look forward to your comments.

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader


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Phil Flynn's Market Report: Oil Prices Surge on Reports of Somalian Pirates, Iran

Sometimes a crisis can make the market go up and sometimes down. The Dubai Crisis knocked oil out of its old trading range only for Pirates and the Iranians to knock us back into it. How does the old poem go? Carry trade and go away, sell again some other day. The carry trade is back in vogue as the Dubai crisis gets put behind us and the Iran crisis is now ahead of us. Oil prices started to rebound to the lower end of the old trading range back above the old breakout point of 75 dollars. Yet oil surged late on a report that British sailors were taken into custody by Iran.

Iran went on a temper tantrum as their buddies Russia and China voted to censure Iran in a strongly worded chiding by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. They lashed out and said not only would they not stop working on their clandestine nuclear plant but they would build 10 more. They also threatened to hold their breath until they turn blue. When the global markets failed to pay attention to their bluster maybe that is when they decided to take some hostages.....Read the entire article.

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