Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.24 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.63
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.24

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

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Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.565 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.922 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.530
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.565

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.987
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.922

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the reaction high crossing at 77.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.57
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.82

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.30
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83

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Oil Rises, Snaps 9 Day Drop as U.S. Industrial Output Gains

Oil rose, snapping the longest decline since 2001, on a report that U.S. factories churned out more goods in November than anticipated, a signal that fuel demand will increase. Oil gained for the first time in 10 days as the Federal Reserve said that output at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.8 percent last month, the fourth increase in five months. Germany’s IFO economic institute raised its 2010 outlook for growth in Europe’s biggest economy.

“The industrial production number is definitely a sign that the economy is improving, and it should lead to higher demand for oil and energy,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. Crude oil for January delivery rose $1.18, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $70.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have climbed 58 percent this year. Oil dropped 11 percent in the nine days ended yesterday to the lowest level since Sept. 29.....Read the entire article.

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Exxon and Nuclear Energy?

A YouTube post early on Monday explains why Exxon Mobil's "Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030" may have inadvertently revealed a future plan to get into the nuclear power business.

Check out the video to see if you're ready to buy into this conspiracy theory.



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Bloomberg Analysis: Crude Oil to Resume Decline After Bounce

Crude oil prices will probably continue to decline even after a short term rise, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group. West Texas Intermediate oil futures for February delivery are in “an underlying downtrend” that wouldn’t be affected by a small, short term rise in prices, Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst at Newedge USA LLC, said in a note to clients yesterday.

“Even though the daily chart points to a corrective bounce, we are not looking for a powerful correction,” Lashinski wrote. “As long as prices remain under $74.50, the overall picture will remain bearish.” The February contract traded for $71.90, up 4 cents, as of 10:21 a.m. London time today. Oil for January settled at $69.51 yesterday, marking the largest difference, or spread, between the two contracts closest to expiry since April.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Higher on Overnight Consolidation, Bears Maintain The Clear Advantage

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.19 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 69.44

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.53
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.19

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.565 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.916 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 5.311

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.422
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.565

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.976
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.916

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally and exceeded November's high crossing at 77.27. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 77.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.33
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.81

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.29
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, some more sideway trading could be seen in crude oil. But such consolidation should be relatively brief. Below 68.59 will target 65.05 support next. Above 71.20 will bring stronger rebound to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 72.30) and possibly above. But upside should be limited well below 79.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Further rise in Natural gas is still in favor with 4.837 support intact. Sustained trading above 5.318 will confirm that rise from 2.409 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. On the downside, through, a break below 4.837 support will indicate that recent consolidation is still in progress inside and another fall should be seen towards lower side of recent range near to 4.157. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained there and bring an eventual upside breakout.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Phil Flynn: Dubious Dubai

Dubai gets a bailout and the risk appetite tries to come back but oil is still being held back by a load of supply. Supply gluts put oil back into a rut on signs that OPEC is cheating more each day. OPEC compliance to production targets fell to just 58% which is the worst score for the cartel since the financial crisis began. The biggest cheaters were Iran and Angola but also, believe it or not, Nigeria's production has come back much faster than expected after the country was plagued with rebel attacks on its infrastructure.

The reasons for the cheating on production quotas within OPEC are varied. There is the greed angle but part of it is there are those who actually want to purchase the oil. Oh sure it is easy to comply with your production targets when there are no buyers for your oil but not so much when you can actually find some buyers.....Read the entire article.


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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Closes Lower, Setting The Stage For Continued Lower Prices

Crude oil closed lower on Monday and below the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 as it extended the decline off October's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.39
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.68

First support is today's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

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Natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extends this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.565 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.895 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.409
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.565

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.911
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.895

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, November's high crossing at 77.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.75 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 77.12
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 77.27

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.75

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Oil Is Little Changed Amid Speculation of Weak Demand Recovery

Crude oil was little changed near a two month low amid speculation that demand will be slow to recover. Oil fell as much as 1.8 percent after reports showed declining industrial output in Europe and the smallest improvement this year in consumer confidence in Japan, the world’s third largest oil consumer. Equities rallied and the dollar weakened from a two month high, supporting prices. “You won’t have a truly healthy crude market and be able to argue for crude going above $80 until you see the developed market, North America, Europe and Asia, turn around,” said Roger Read, an analyst with Natixis Bleichroeder in Houston. He forecast oil would trade in a $60 to $80 range for the next few months.

Crude oil for January delivery rose 5 cents to $69.92 a barrel at 10:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has risen 57 percent this year. Earlier, futures touched $68.59, the lowest since Oct. 5. European industrial output fell for the first time in six months in October, led by a slump in consumer goods. Employment declined in the third quarter. The Tankan business confidence index in Japan showed large companies planned deeper spending cuts to protect earnings under threat from the yen, which climbed to a 14 month high against the dollar in November.....Read the entire article.


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