Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentary For Tuesday Evening


Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.24 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.63
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.24

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

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Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.565 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.922 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.530
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 5.565

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.987
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.922

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the reaction high crossing at 77.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.57
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.82

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.30
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.83

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