Thursday, December 17, 2009

Crude Oil Falls on Overnight Rally in the U.S. Dollar

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.80. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.49 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 72.27

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 73.55
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.49

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59
Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16

What do Super Traders have in common?

Natural gas was higher overnight and is challenging the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.565. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.993 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.484

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.569
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.188
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.993

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The U.S. Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.16.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.82.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03.

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