Thursday, December 31, 2009

Do I Hear Seven Days? Crude Oil Closes Higher....AGAIN!


Crude oil closed higher for the seventh day in a row on Thursday as it extends the rally off this month's low. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If February extends this rally, the reaction high crossing at 80.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.00
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing 80.40

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.77
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.47

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Natural gas closed sharply lower for the third day in a row on Thursday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.465 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February extends December's rally, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.038
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077

First support is today's low crossing at 5.505
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.465

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday ending a two day short covering bounce. However, the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.38 are needed confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews the current rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 78.77
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.67
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.38

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