Monday, December 28, 2009

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rise from 68.59 extended further to as high as 78.68 so far. The strong break of 61.8% retracement of 82.0 to 68.58 at 76.87 suggests that choppy fall from 82.0 has completed. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise could be seen to to retest 82.0. On the downside, below 76.29 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But another rise is now in favor as long as 71.21 support holds.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from put crude oil back above 55 days EMA and dampens the bearish view that it has topped out at 33.2. We'll stay neutral for the moment with focus on 82.0 resistance. Break there will indicate that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, focus will remain on reversal signal as we'd expect such rise to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

At this point, natural gas is still limited by 5.929 resitance and consolidation from there is possibly still in progress. Another fall might be seen to 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 5.929 at 5.25. But downside is expected to be contained well above 4.837 support (61.8% retracement of 4.157 to 5.929 at 4.834) and bring rally resumption. Break of 5.929 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.432 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!


No comments:

Stock & ETF Trading Signals