Friday, December 11, 2009

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil is still struggling around 70/71 level for the moment and at this point, further fall is still in favor with 73.87 minor resistance intact. As noted before, whole decline from 82.0 is still in progress and should now be targeting 65.05 support. On the upside, above 73.87 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 79.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of trend line support (now at 71.86) affirms that case that medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed earlier at 82.00 already. Further decline is now expected to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. Firm break there will target a retest of 33.2 low next. On the upside, break of 79.04 resistance is needed to invalidate this bearish view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas surges sharply to as high as 5.347 after brief retreat. Break of 5.318 resistance indicates that rise from 2.409 is resuming and should now be targeting 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. on the downside, break of 4.837 support will argue that recent consolidation is still in progress and some more sideway trading would be seen again.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside break out of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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