Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Can You Say FIVE Days in a Row! Crude Oil Closes Higher Again


Crude oil closed higher for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday as it extends the rally off this month's low. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If February extends this rally, the reaction high crossing at 80.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.43 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.39
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing 80.40

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.59
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.43

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Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If February extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.374 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.038
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.762
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.374

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.06 would signal that a short term top has likely been posted.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.05 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews the current rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 78.77
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.06
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.05

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