Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Upside momentum in crude oil remains unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Bias remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway consolidation could be seen. But still, downside should be contained by 76.19 support and bring another towards 82.0 resistance. However, a break of 76.19 will argue that rebound from 68.59 has completed and deeper fall should then be seen to 71.21 support first.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from put crude oil back above 55 days EMA and dampens the bearish view that it has topped out at 33.2. We'll stay neutral for the moment with focus on 82.0 resistance. Break there will indicate that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, focus will remain on reversal signal as we'd expect such rise to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas retreats again after rising to 6.035 and continues to lose upside moment. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD, a short term top might be in place at 6.035 already. Break of 5.76 will bring deeper pull back towards 5.29 resistance turned support. On the upside, though, above 6.035 will indicate that recent rise is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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