Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
At this point, intraday bias in crude oil will remain on the downside as long as 75.36 minor resistance holds. Further fall is in favor to trend line support at 71.86. Break there will be another signal of medium term topping and will bring deeper decline to 65.05 support next. On the upside, above 75.36 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But note that choppy fall from 82.0 is still in favor to continue as long as 79.04 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, question remains on whether crude oil's medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 already and the outlook is quite mixed so far. Nevertheless, now, as long as 79.04 resistance holds, fall from 82.0 will remain in favor to continue and we'd slightly prefer the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 82.0 already. Sustained trading below the trend line support (now at 71.86) will add more credence to this case and target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation.
On the upside, though, above 79.04 resistance will suggest that recent choppy price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise from 33.2. In such case, the rise from 33.2 might be ready to resume for another high above 82.0. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal in this case.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas' rise from 4.432 continues as expected and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 5.318 resistance. As noted before, decisive break there will confirm that recent consolidations have completed and rise from 2.409 has resumed for 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. On the downside, below 4.96 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring some more consolidations between 4.157 and 5.318 before an eventual upside breakout.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside break out of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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