Monday, December 21, 2009

Crude Oil Continues Climbing as Recovery Makes Most Accurate Forecasters Bullish

Oil’s biggest annual rally since 1999 is poised to continue with gains of at least 19 percent next year as the global economy recovers and OPEC curtails production, the most accurate crude forecasters say. Societe Generale SA’s Mike Wittner and Hannes Loacker at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, whose predictions this year that were within 9 percent of market levels, now say oil will average $92.50 and $88, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from current prices of about $74 in New York. The median Wall Street estimate is for an increase to $83.

Oil is set to rise as China and India lead the world economy from its biggest economic shock since World War II, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries caps output, Wittner and Loacker said. Analysts say OPEC will keep supply targets unchanged at a meeting in Luanda, Angola, tomorrow, even as the International Energy Agency predicts fuel consumption will rise 1.7 percent next year. “With global demand growing and OPEC holding production flat, stockpiles are going to come down, and that’s bullish for prices,” said Wittner, 48, the head of oil market research at Societe Generale in London. Commodities will also benefit from the weak dollar and U.S. interest rates close to zero percent, he said.....Read the entire article.

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