Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Ending Two Day Correction


Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday ending a two day correction. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.45 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.45
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.69

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.27
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 68.59

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.149 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If January extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.929
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.036

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.459
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.149

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends its current rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.77
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.45
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44

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