Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Crude Oil Bears Appear to Have a Clear Near Term Advantage


Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 74.58

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.18
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.42

First support is the reaction low crossing at 72.39
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.290 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.821 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot for Tuesday is 4.875

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.060.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.290.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.821.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 4.432.

What do all market wizards have in common?

The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight and is poised to extend last Friday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last Friday's rally, November's high crossing at 77.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.39 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 76.58
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 77.27

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.53
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.39

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