Phil Flynn: I Have a Yen For Oil

Say goodbye to the Euro and hello to the Japanese yen. China may be raising reserve requirements to slow demand but today it is strong economic data out of Japan that seems to be giving oil a bit of a lift. Last week oil shuttered when China increased reserves on banks for a second time in a month. Yet that seems to be a bit of a distant memory this morning after strong data out of Japan.

Bloomberg news reported that crude oil rose after gains in Asian equities and growth in Japan’s economy increased confidence that a global economic recovery will lead to higher fuel demand. Better than expected demand expectations for oil came from the fact that Japan, the world’s third-biggest oil consuming country, yesterday reported 4.6 percent growth in gross domestic product for the three months ended Dec. 31, surpassing the 3.5 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

This strong data saved oil from its bearish fate as the carry traders may look to the yen as an alternative currency to play with. The situation in Europe is looking even more uncertain as the debt problems surrounding Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Greece and that makes the yen a more attractive alternative.

Oil has a lot to prove with seasonal demand peaking as we enter the long slow march out of winter. The Energy Information Agency reported that the U.S. average price for regular gasoline fell for the fourth week in a row, dropping less than a penny to reach $2.65 per gallon, which was still $0.73 above last year. On the East Coast the price decreased almost two cents to $2.67 per gallon.

The Midwest average increased by over a penny to $2.57 per gallon, and Rocky Mountain prices rose by less than half a cent to $2.62 per gallon. Gulf Coast average prices fell almost 3 cents to $2.52 per gallon and remained the lowest regional prices in the Nation. The West Coast average dropped close to 2 cents to $2.90 per gallon and the price in California decreased over a penny to $2.96 per gallon.....Read the entire article.


Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today


Share

Crude Oil Rises the Most in Four Month as the Dollar Drops Against Euro

Crude oil rose the most in more than four months as the dollar declined against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil climbed as much as 4.3 percent as the euro rebounded from the lowest level against the dollar in nine months yesterday. European finance ministers turned up the pressure on Greece to put its public finances in order and refused to say how they would make good on a promise to rescue the nation if it can’t contain its debt.

“Commodities are moving as a group today,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “We’re looking at the usual suspects, the dollar and the euro. The markets are optimistic today that Europe will be able to bolster Greece and some other debt ridden countries that use the euro.” Crude oil for March delivery rose $3, or 4.1 percent, to $77.13 a barrel at 11:19 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $77.28, the highest since Feb. 3. Prices have more than doubled from a year earlier. It was the biggest percentage gain since Sept. 30.

There was no floor trading in New York yesterday because of the Presidents Day holiday. Yesterday’s electronic trades and today’s session will count toward today’s settlement. The dollar traded at $1.3725 per euro, down 0.9 percent from $1.3598 yesterday. The common currency has weakened 4.2 percent against the greenback since the start of the year, partly because of concern over the euro zone’s stability in the face of large debts among member nations.

Finance ministers from the 16 nations that use the common currency told Greek authorities to prepare more deficit measures by March 16, in case the government fails to show sufficient progress reining in the region’s largest budget deficit.....Read the entire article.



Check out the new "Trend TV"



Share

Crude Oil Pivot, Resistance and Support Numbers For Tuesday

Crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rebound off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.69 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 74.02

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.46
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 75.69

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.66
Second support is this month's low crossing at 69.50

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month's choppy sideways trading pattern. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of this month's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 5.459

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.556
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.680

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.204
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.060

Do You Understand How Divergences Work in the Market?

The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.53 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.20
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.53

Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule

Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

Crude oil's recovery from 72.60 extended further today and the development argues that rebound from 69.50 is not completed yet. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 75.69 resistance will bring stronger rise towards 78.04 resistance next. As noted before, break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring even stronger rally. On the downside, though, below 72.60 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 69.50 support.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule

Share

Weekend ETF and Market Report

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen....

Last week ended on a positive note with stocks and commodities pushing higher into Friday’s close. The market overall is looking very unstable here and this week I figure there will be some big price movement.

Below are the charts on the DIA, GLD, SLV, UNG and USO funds so you can get a feel for the trend and additionally what I am looking for this week with respect to prices.

DIA – Daily & 60 Minute Chart
The Dow, along with the other indexes, has formed a bear flag and can be seen on the daily and 60 minute intraday charts below. This price pattern is a negative one and points to lower prices in the coming week.

If we get one more thrust down I figure it will spook the rest of the weak hands which in turn is a setup for a very nice multi week rally. If this flag turns into a rally then we will simply wait for a pullback and buy when there is a low risk setup.



GLD – Daily Chart
Gold has been doing much the same as the over stock indexes and I feel the same will happen here. We could see price rise for another day or two as it tests our blue resistance level before heading lower.



SLV – Daily Silver Chart
Silver has formed an interesting pattern the past few months and has now broken down. Silver’s chart continues to look weak as it drifts up to test resistance with a bear flag pattern that points to lower prices in the coming days, much the same as gold.



UNG – Daily Natural Gas Chart
Sorry for all the lines on this chart. It looks like a mess, I know, but it does show a possible trend change in UNG.

The trend has been down for over a year but now it looks as though it’s forming a reverse head & shoulders pattern and possible bull flag. These two patterns point to much higher prices in the coming months.

Natural Gas seasonally rallies in mid February into mid April. So this could be something we could catch for a multi month play. I may provide a stock to trade this rally in gas in addition to the ETF fund in the coming days or weeks, when ever this play unfolds.



USO – Daily Crude Oil Chart
Oil has been selling down very strong for the past 6 weeks but it is now trading at a key pivot point. Oil looks as though it’s trying to bottom here and in the next 1-2 weeks I think the energy sector will provide some great trades.



Weekend Trading Conclusion:
Overall, the market and metals bottomed last week or they have another leg down which I expect would happen this week if that’s the case. The charts are pointing to lower prices still. If the market does rally then we will simply watch the breaking and buy the pullback in 1-2 weeks once there is a low risk setup.

To get this weekly trading report sent via email to your inbox if you visit The Gold and Oil Guy .Com.


Share

Oil Trades at $74 on China Economic Tightening, Saudi Concern

Oil was little changed at $74 a barrel after China sought to temper its economic expansion and a Saudi adviser said the U.S. aims to cut oil imports. China, the world’s second largest oil consuming country, ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month on Feb. 12, signaling slower economic growth and reduced energy demand. Saudi oil ministry adviser Mohammad al-Sabban said today the U.S. is promoting nuclear power as a means of cutting oil imports.

“The market is a bit uneasy about the Chinese tightening,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. China is not “yet the largest importer; it’s not yet the largest consumer region. Still, it is one of the most important ones.” Crude oil for March delivery traded at $74 a barrel, down 13 cents, at the halt of electronic trading for the contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:15 p.m. Trading resumes at 6 p.m. New York time. There is no floor trading today because of the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday.

The dollar advanced to $1.3601 against the euro, from $1.3632, as of 3:15 p.m. in New York. The Dollar Index, a six- currency gauge of the greenback’s value, rose 0.14 percent to 80.366. A rise in the value of the dollar curbs demand for commodities as an alternative investment. “What we would be looking for in the next week is how the U.S. dollar is going to behave,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity derivatives research at BNP Paribas SA in London. “You are going to be looking at how the dollar is going to behave against a number of currency pairs”....Read the entire article.


Check out the new "Trend TV"


Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday

Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, recovery from 69.50 might have completed at 75.69 already. Break of 72.60 will affirm this case and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 69.50 support first. Break will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 83.95 towards next key support at 68.59. On the upside, above 75.69 will turn focus to 78.04 minor resistance. Break there will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish......Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO


Share

Saudi Arabia Preparing for oil Demand to Peak

A top Saudi energy official expressed serious concern Monday that world oil demand could peak in the next decade and said his country was preparing for that eventuality by diversifying its economic base. Mohammed al-Sabban, lead climate talks negotiator, said the country with the world's largest proven reserves of conventional crude is working to become the top exporter of energy, including alternative forms such as solar power.

Saudi Arabia was among the most vocal opponents of proposals during the climate change talks in Copenhagen. And al-Sabban criticized what he described as efforts by developed nations to adopt policies biased against oil producers through the imposition of taxes on refined petroleum products while offering huge subsidies for coal _ a key industry for the United States. Al-Sabban said the potential that world oil demand had peaked, or would peak soon, was an "alarm that we need to take more seriously" as Saudi charts a course for greater economic diversification.

"We cannot stay put and say 'well, this is something that will happen anyway," al-Sabban said at the Jeddah Economic Forum. The "world cannot wait for us before we are forced to adapt to the reality of lower and lower oil revenues," he added later.

Some experts have argued that demand for oil, the chief export for Saudi Arabia and the vast majority of other Gulf Arab nations, has already peaked. Others say consumption will plateau soon, particularly in developed nations that are pushing for greater reliance on renewable energy sources. With oil demand only now starting to pick up after it was pummeled by the global recession, some analysts say consumers may have learned to live permanently with a lower level of consumption.....Read the entire article.

Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule

Share

Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule

From guest blogger Adam Hewison.....

Over 30 years ago I learned from a very successful trader, a trade secret I’ve never shared on the web before. In fact, I only shared this trading secret with a few friends during that time.

I learned this trading secret from a trader named Bill… I am keeping his last name private as Bill is a very low key guy and shuns any publicity.

Using his special trading technique, Bill made millions and millions of dollars from his office. Now for the first time, I am going to share with you the exact same technique that Bill used so successfully for so many years. The best part is that this technique is still working more than 30 years after I learned about it. Now it’s time for the next generation of traders to learn Bill’s secret.

Bill didn’t even have a name for this killer trading technique. I named
it “The 52 week new highs on Friday rule”.

Just click here to learn this trading secret and please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think.

Share

Crude Oil Bulls Take a Small Advantage Into The Weekend

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.04 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 75.69.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04.

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50.
Second support is September's low crossing at 67.46.

How To Find Winning Trades In Any Market

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extended this month's trading range. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.556
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.680

First support is today's low crossing at 5.204
Second support is January's low crossing at 5.060

Learn to Trade Forex in Just 90 Seconds!

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.24 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.83
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.99
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.24


Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!


Share