Crude Oil Fluctuates as Dollar Rises Against Euro, Stocks Increase

Crude oil fluctuated as the dollar climbed against the euro, equities increased on higher than estimated earnings and U.S. economic data signaled the global recovery is gaining momentum. Oil traded in a $1.22 range today as the greenback rose 0.9 percent against the European currency. A falling dollar reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Futures gained the most in more than four months yesterday as the dollar declined against the euro and equities surged.

“Today’s much the same as yesterday, we will be guided by the dollar and equities,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We are stuck in a $1 range today and will see if there will be a breakout in either direction.” Crude oil for March delivery fell 18 cents to $76.83 a barrel at 10:53 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $77.82 a barrel, the highest level since Feb. 3.

The dollar traded at $1.365 per euro from $1.377 yesterday. The common currency has weakened 4.6 percent against the dollar this year, partly because of concern over the euro zone’s stability in the face of large debts in Greece and other states. “There’s been a huge rotation of assets in all of the capital markets because of worries about European debt,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses of food and energy commodities. “Once these worries ease, prices should trade at the $80 level”....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Wednesday

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 78.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 76.14

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.82
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.58
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.22

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month's choppy sideways trading pattern. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of this month's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.392

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.556
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.680

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.204
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.060

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The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.58 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 78.83

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil's rebound from 69.50 extended further to as high as 77.56 and remains firm. Break of 78.04 resistance will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring even stronger rally to retest 83.95 high. Nevertheless, before that, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Below 72.60 will suggest that rebound from 69.50 has completed and fall from 83.95 should then be resuming for 69.50 support and below.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Oil Trades Above $77 After Rising as Dollar Drops Versus Euro

Crude oil was little changed above $77 a barrel in New York after rising as the dollar fell against the euro on speculation Greece won’t need a European Union bailout to meet deficit reduction targets. Oil climbed the most in more than four months yesterday as the euro rebounded from the lowest level against the dollar in nine months. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Traders are looking to U.S. economic data releases today and tomorrow to confirm that the global economic rebound is continuing.

“Prices have just moved up on the euro,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. “If we continue to see strength, crude oil could be pulled up to $78.50. There are a lot of economic indexes to be published but those may still be fifty-fifty. They can’t all be positive.” Crude oil for March delivery traded at $77.24 a barrel, up 23 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:15 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose $2.88, or 3.9 percent, to $77.01, the biggest percentage gain since Sept. 30.

There was no floor trading in New York on Feb. 15 because of the Presidents Day holiday. Electronic trades that day and yesterday’s session counted toward the settlement. Prices also gained after manufacturing in the New York region grew at the fastest pace in four months. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to 24.9 this month, higher than anticipated, from 15.9 in January. Economists forecast the New York Fed’s index would increase to 18 in February, according to the median of 49 projections in a Bloomberg News survey.....Read the entire article.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Bulls Regain Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off this month's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 78.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.66. Second support is this month's low crossing at 69.50.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's trading range. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.556. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 5.680. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.204. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.060.

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.15 signaling that a short term top has likely been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.50 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32. First support is today's low crossing at 79.68. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.50.

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Transocean OKs $3.2 Billion Share Repurchase Program

Transocean's [RIG] Board of Directors has authorized company management to implement the shareholder approved 3.5 billion Swiss franc (CHF) share repurchase program (approximately US $3.2 billion at the exchange rate prevailing at close of trading on February 12, 2010 of US $1.00 to CHF 1.08).

The Board of Directors has also decided to recommend to the shareholders a dividend in the form of a capital reduction denominated in Swiss francs equivalent to approximately US $1.0 billion.

The company intends to list its shares on the SIX Swiss Exchange ("SIX") and will continue to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Board of Directors has delegated to company management full authority to begin implementation of the company’s share repurchase program, with an aggregate purchase price of up to CHF 3.5 billion (approximately US $3.2 billion). The share repurchase program was approved by shareholders at Transocean's May 2009 annual general meeting. The company plans to fund any share repurchases from its current and future cash balances and will not use debt to fund any repurchases. Repurchases may be suspended or discontinued at any time.

The Board of Directors has also decided to recommend that the company’s shareholders at their May 2010 annual general meeting approve and authorize the Board of Directors to pay a dividend denominated in Swiss francs for an amount equivalent to approximately US$1.0 billion, or about US $3.11 per share (based on currently outstanding shares), converted to Swiss francs at the exchange rate prevailing two business days prior to the annual general meeting. The dividend would take the form of a reduction of the par value of the company's shares, and if approved, will be paid in four equal installments with expected payment dates in July 2010, October 2010, January 2011 and April 2011.

Distributions to shareholders in the form of a reduction in par value of the company's shares, which is currently CHF 15 per share, are not subject to 35 percent Swiss withholding tax. Shareholders will be paid in US dollars converted using the exchange rate prevailing two business days prior to payment, unless shareholders elect to receive the dividend payment in Swiss francs.

In addition, the company announced its intention to list its shares on the SIX in the second quarter of 2010. Listing on the SIX is subject to approval by the SIX. Transocean's shares will continue to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

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Phil Flynn: I Have a Yen For Oil

Say goodbye to the Euro and hello to the Japanese yen. China may be raising reserve requirements to slow demand but today it is strong economic data out of Japan that seems to be giving oil a bit of a lift. Last week oil shuttered when China increased reserves on banks for a second time in a month. Yet that seems to be a bit of a distant memory this morning after strong data out of Japan.

Bloomberg news reported that crude oil rose after gains in Asian equities and growth in Japan’s economy increased confidence that a global economic recovery will lead to higher fuel demand. Better than expected demand expectations for oil came from the fact that Japan, the world’s third-biggest oil consuming country, yesterday reported 4.6 percent growth in gross domestic product for the three months ended Dec. 31, surpassing the 3.5 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

This strong data saved oil from its bearish fate as the carry traders may look to the yen as an alternative currency to play with. The situation in Europe is looking even more uncertain as the debt problems surrounding Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Greece and that makes the yen a more attractive alternative.

Oil has a lot to prove with seasonal demand peaking as we enter the long slow march out of winter. The Energy Information Agency reported that the U.S. average price for regular gasoline fell for the fourth week in a row, dropping less than a penny to reach $2.65 per gallon, which was still $0.73 above last year. On the East Coast the price decreased almost two cents to $2.67 per gallon.

The Midwest average increased by over a penny to $2.57 per gallon, and Rocky Mountain prices rose by less than half a cent to $2.62 per gallon. Gulf Coast average prices fell almost 3 cents to $2.52 per gallon and remained the lowest regional prices in the Nation. The West Coast average dropped close to 2 cents to $2.90 per gallon and the price in California decreased over a penny to $2.96 per gallon.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Rises the Most in Four Month as the Dollar Drops Against Euro

Crude oil rose the most in more than four months as the dollar declined against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil climbed as much as 4.3 percent as the euro rebounded from the lowest level against the dollar in nine months yesterday. European finance ministers turned up the pressure on Greece to put its public finances in order and refused to say how they would make good on a promise to rescue the nation if it can’t contain its debt.

“Commodities are moving as a group today,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “We’re looking at the usual suspects, the dollar and the euro. The markets are optimistic today that Europe will be able to bolster Greece and some other debt ridden countries that use the euro.” Crude oil for March delivery rose $3, or 4.1 percent, to $77.13 a barrel at 11:19 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $77.28, the highest since Feb. 3. Prices have more than doubled from a year earlier. It was the biggest percentage gain since Sept. 30.

There was no floor trading in New York yesterday because of the Presidents Day holiday. Yesterday’s electronic trades and today’s session will count toward today’s settlement. The dollar traded at $1.3725 per euro, down 0.9 percent from $1.3598 yesterday. The common currency has weakened 4.2 percent against the greenback since the start of the year, partly because of concern over the euro zone’s stability in the face of large debts among member nations.

Finance ministers from the 16 nations that use the common currency told Greek authorities to prepare more deficit measures by March 16, in case the government fails to show sufficient progress reining in the region’s largest budget deficit.....Read the entire article.



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Crude Oil Pivot, Resistance and Support Numbers For Tuesday

Crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rebound off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.69 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 74.02

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.46
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 75.69

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.66
Second support is this month's low crossing at 69.50

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month's choppy sideways trading pattern. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of this month's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 5.459

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.556
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.680

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.204
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.060

Do You Understand How Divergences Work in the Market?

The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.53 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.20
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.53

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