Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top is in place at 77.68 and bias is turned neutral. With 78.04 resistance intact, we're still favoring the case that whole decline from 83.95 is not finished. Below 72.60 minor support will suggest that recovery from 69.50 has completed and will flip intraday bias back tot he downside for 69.50 and then 68.59 support next. However, note that decisive break of 78.04 resistance will dampen this view and argue that fall from 83.95 has completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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New Video: Five Reasons Why Gold Will Not....

Gold has made some exciting moves recently, but what can we expect in the future? In today’s video, we point out five reasons that we do not expect gold to make a new high just yet.

If the current cycle persists, there will be some interesting trades to be had in this market and a possible new high before summer.

The video is free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We hope you enjoy this gold update and please leave a comment about how you feel about this video and this market.


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Crude Oil Fluctuates as Dollar Rises Against Euro, Stocks Increase

Crude oil fluctuated as the dollar climbed against the euro, equities increased on higher than estimated earnings and U.S. economic data signaled the global recovery is gaining momentum. Oil traded in a $1.22 range today as the greenback rose 0.9 percent against the European currency. A falling dollar reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Futures gained the most in more than four months yesterday as the dollar declined against the euro and equities surged.

“Today’s much the same as yesterday, we will be guided by the dollar and equities,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We are stuck in a $1 range today and will see if there will be a breakout in either direction.” Crude oil for March delivery fell 18 cents to $76.83 a barrel at 10:53 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $77.82 a barrel, the highest level since Feb. 3.

The dollar traded at $1.365 per euro from $1.377 yesterday. The common currency has weakened 4.6 percent against the dollar this year, partly because of concern over the euro zone’s stability in the face of large debts in Greece and other states. “There’s been a huge rotation of assets in all of the capital markets because of worries about European debt,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses of food and energy commodities. “Once these worries ease, prices should trade at the $80 level”....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Wednesday

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 78.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 76.14

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.82
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.58
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.22

Five Reasons Why Gold Will Not....

Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month's choppy sideways trading pattern. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of this month's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.392

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.556
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.680

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.204
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.060

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.58 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 78.83

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil's rebound from 69.50 extended further to as high as 77.56 and remains firm. Break of 78.04 resistance will argue that whole fall from 83.95 has finished and will bring even stronger rally to retest 83.95 high. Nevertheless, before that, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Below 72.60 will suggest that rebound from 69.50 has completed and fall from 83.95 should then be resuming for 69.50 support and below.

In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term trend line support added some credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Oil Trades Above $77 After Rising as Dollar Drops Versus Euro

Crude oil was little changed above $77 a barrel in New York after rising as the dollar fell against the euro on speculation Greece won’t need a European Union bailout to meet deficit reduction targets. Oil climbed the most in more than four months yesterday as the euro rebounded from the lowest level against the dollar in nine months. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Traders are looking to U.S. economic data releases today and tomorrow to confirm that the global economic rebound is continuing.

“Prices have just moved up on the euro,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. “If we continue to see strength, crude oil could be pulled up to $78.50. There are a lot of economic indexes to be published but those may still be fifty-fifty. They can’t all be positive.” Crude oil for March delivery traded at $77.24 a barrel, up 23 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:15 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose $2.88, or 3.9 percent, to $77.01, the biggest percentage gain since Sept. 30.

There was no floor trading in New York on Feb. 15 because of the Presidents Day holiday. Electronic trades that day and yesterday’s session counted toward the settlement. Prices also gained after manufacturing in the New York region grew at the fastest pace in four months. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to 24.9 this month, higher than anticipated, from 15.9 in January. Economists forecast the New York Fed’s index would increase to 18 in February, according to the median of 49 projections in a Bloomberg News survey.....Read the entire article.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




FREE Trade School Video “The Fibonacci Tool Fully Explained”

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Crude Oil Bulls Regain Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off this month's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 78.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.66. Second support is this month's low crossing at 69.50.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's trading range. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.556. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 5.680. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.204. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.060.

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.15 signaling that a short term top has likely been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.50 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.83. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32. First support is today's low crossing at 79.68. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.50.

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Transocean OKs $3.2 Billion Share Repurchase Program

Transocean's [RIG] Board of Directors has authorized company management to implement the shareholder approved 3.5 billion Swiss franc (CHF) share repurchase program (approximately US $3.2 billion at the exchange rate prevailing at close of trading on February 12, 2010 of US $1.00 to CHF 1.08).

The Board of Directors has also decided to recommend to the shareholders a dividend in the form of a capital reduction denominated in Swiss francs equivalent to approximately US $1.0 billion.

The company intends to list its shares on the SIX Swiss Exchange ("SIX") and will continue to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Board of Directors has delegated to company management full authority to begin implementation of the company’s share repurchase program, with an aggregate purchase price of up to CHF 3.5 billion (approximately US $3.2 billion). The share repurchase program was approved by shareholders at Transocean's May 2009 annual general meeting. The company plans to fund any share repurchases from its current and future cash balances and will not use debt to fund any repurchases. Repurchases may be suspended or discontinued at any time.

The Board of Directors has also decided to recommend that the company’s shareholders at their May 2010 annual general meeting approve and authorize the Board of Directors to pay a dividend denominated in Swiss francs for an amount equivalent to approximately US$1.0 billion, or about US $3.11 per share (based on currently outstanding shares), converted to Swiss francs at the exchange rate prevailing two business days prior to the annual general meeting. The dividend would take the form of a reduction of the par value of the company's shares, and if approved, will be paid in four equal installments with expected payment dates in July 2010, October 2010, January 2011 and April 2011.

Distributions to shareholders in the form of a reduction in par value of the company's shares, which is currently CHF 15 per share, are not subject to 35 percent Swiss withholding tax. Shareholders will be paid in US dollars converted using the exchange rate prevailing two business days prior to payment, unless shareholders elect to receive the dividend payment in Swiss francs.

In addition, the company announced its intention to list its shares on the SIX in the second quarter of 2010. Listing on the SIX is subject to approval by the SIX. Transocean's shares will continue to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Can you learn to trade crude oil in just 90 seconds?

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