Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it rebounded off Monday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.41 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.44.

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this winter's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.724 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.531. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.724. First support is today's low crossing at 4.352. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below the lower boundary of the trading range of the past six weeks, which crosses at 79.92. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. If June renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.72. First support is today's low crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17.

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Crude Oil Rises Above $82 as U.S. Imports, Fuel Supplies Drop

Crude oil rose above $82 a barrel after the Energy Department reported U.S. imports fell to a seasonal low and fuel inventories dropped. Crude imports slipped 0.8 percent last week to the smallest level for the second week in March since 2002. Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuels, which include heating oil and diesel, decreased more than forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna today left production targets unchanged to support current price levels.

“Imports are down to a really, really small trickle,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. “We’re not able to bring in as much oil as we’d like to because the oil that is out there is going elsewhere. When the economy does start to grow and the refineries start to pick up runs, that crude isn’t going to be there.” Crude oil for April delivery gained $1.22, or 1.5 percent, to $82.92 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have increased 69 percent in the past year. Oil traded at $82.50 a barrel before the release of the inventory report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Oil imports decreased by 64,000 barrels a day last week to 8.43 million. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries delivered 47 percent of its crude and refined products to the Asia Pacific region in 2008, up from 45 percent the year before, according to data on its Web site. That compares with a decline in the U.S. to 22 percent in 2008 from 26 percent in 2007.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Dan Dicker and Stephen Schork "Avoid Refiners"

Dan Dicker, expert trader and Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Report, break down oil refiners and whether or not now is the time to buy.



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Crude Oil Numbers For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Wednesday's pivot point is 81.04. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.78. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 83.47. First support is Monday's low crossing at 79.41. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.44.

Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends this winter's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. Wednesday's pivot point is 4.364. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.535. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.400. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight and has broken out below the lower boundary of trading range of the past six weeks, which crosses at 79.92. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 would open the door for a larger degree decline during March. If June renews this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.71. First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.74. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 77.44 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.32. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.44.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this winter's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.777 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.578. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.777. First support is today's low crossing at 4.400. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday and is challenging the lower boundary of the trading range of the past six weeks, which crosses at 79.92. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for a larger degree decline into spring. If June renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 81.97. First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.92. Second support is today's low crossing at 79.85.

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Crude Oil Gains the Most in Four Weeks in New York as the Dollar Weakens

Crude oil rose the most in four weeks as the dollar fell against the euro, buoying demand for most commodities as an alternative investment, and as OPEC ministers indicated they would refrain from increasing output. Oil gained as much as 2.7 percent as the dollar weakened against the euro after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its sovereign credit ratings on Greece. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said yesterday oil prices are in the right range. The kingdom is OPEC’s biggest producer.

“It’s a pretty good move down for the dollar, and that’s definitely getting things perked up,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodities. “The OPEC decision is baked in the cake.” Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.81, or 2.3 percent, to $81.61 a barrel at 10:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, oil touched $81.99 a barrel in its biggest increase since Feb. 16. Oil has advanced 72 percent in the past year.

Most major currencies, including the dollar, weakened against the euro after European finance ministers worked out a strategy for emergency loans to Greece should the nation’s plan to reduce the region’s biggest budget deficit fall. S&P affirmed its BBB+ long term and A-2 short term credit ratings on Greece. The dollar weakened 0.6 percent against the euro to $1.3762 at 11:02 a.m. in New York from $1.3677 yesterday. Some investors buy commodities like oil, gold and copper as an alternative investment to the dollar.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities advanced for the first time in seven days, gaining 0.7 percent to 272.74. Twelve of the commodities increased, led by heating oil, crude and gasoline.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: You've Got A Friend

When your down and troubled and you need a helping hand and nothing oh nothing is going right. Just close your eyes and think of Ben and soon he will be there to brighten even your darkest night. You’ve got a friend! The Fed has been the oil bull best friend but is that friendship going to start to become a little strained. With a better than expected jobs report and dissension within the committee the possibility of laying the groundwork for change is in the language in the much debated Fed Statement is rising. Let’s face it oil has been dependant on Fed policy and for all intents and purposes it has been a one sided relationship.

Now with the Fed feeling pressure to change the language about rates staying low for an extended period oil bulls may have their dreams of $85 or $90 dollar barrel oil squashed despite the illusion of their peak oil fantasies. Oh yes there are some that are betting on a change in the language even though the majority think things will not change but any hint of a softening in Fed resolve will be a big blow to oil bulls.

Oil broke the sharp intermediate uptrend and despite the fact that the move on a short term bias makes us look oversold and on target for an attempt at a recovery rally at least on a day trade basis the truth is that without more help by the Fed the oil bulls have failed to break out of the wider trading range with the highs established earlier this year. With the cheaters in the OPEC cartel beginning to meet and the Chinese more than likely to raise reserve requirements on their banks (assuming their egos and politics do not get in the way) the bulls will need a friend in Ben if they are going they have the fortitude to take oil to the next level If not then repeated failures to take out the mid eighties we will then eventually go and test the lower end of the range. Does this sound familiar?

The other help to the bulls may come from the Chinese. Now that President Obama has politicized the Chinese’s currency peg to the dollar in the eyes of the Chinese it makes it less likely that they will let the Yuan float .The Chinese says in effect that the policy of devaluing our currency to improve our competitive advantage. Well they might have a point if it were not for the fact the china pegged their currency to the dollar when the dollar was strong as well. The AFP reports that China on Tuesday dismissed calls from US lawmakers for Beijing to be labeled a currency manipulator, saying the value of the Yuan was not to blame for global trade imbalances. The comments echoed those by Premier Wen Jiabao at the weekend, who said Beijing would not yield to foreign pressure to allow the Yuan to appreciate, and warned other countries to stop "finger-pointing".

The AFP says that on Monday, a group of 130 Democratic and Republican lawmakers called on US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to single out China's Yuan policy in a report due next month, saying Beijing was in effect subsidizing exports. "The impact of China's currency manipulation on the US economy cannot be overstated," the lawmakers said in the letter submitted to Geithner and US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke."Maintaining its currency at a devalued exchange rate provides a subsidy to Chinese companies and unfairly disadvantages foreign competitors." us Chinese commerce ministry spokesman Yao Jian said the strong Yuan, effectively pegged to the dollar since mid-2008, was not the reason for China's trade surplus.


Energy analyst Phil Flynn can reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

Crude oil's break of 80.61 support indicates that a short term top is already formed at 83.16 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 next and break will target 6.18% retracement at 74.72. On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 83.16 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect another fall as correction from 83.16 extends.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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New Video: A Sneak Peek At Gold

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

Last week we gave you a Trade Triangle alert to exit the gold market on the long side. Since that alert was issued gold has dropped significantly.

In today's short video we bring you up to date with our thoughts on what we think is going to happen next to gold.

Just click here to watch "A Sneak Peek At Gold" and as always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Please leave a comment to let us know your thoughts on this video and the direction of gold.


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