Crude Oil Rises the Most in Five Weeks as Dollar Weakens Against Euro

Crude oil rose the most in more than five weeks as the dollar fell on European Union plans to help Greece and on signals that economic growth will accelerate. Oil topped $82 a barrel as the greenback dropped following an International Monetary Fund and European Union pledge to help finance Greece’s debt. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal for raw materials as an alternative investment. Consumer spending in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, climbed in February for a fifth consecutive month.

“The resolution of the Greek crisis is giving oil a boost,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “The dollar is weaker, which is helping all of the commodity markets today.” Crude oil for May delivery rose $2.13, or 2.7 percent, to $82.13 a barrel at 9:49 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are heading for the biggest gain since February 16. Futures touched $82.25, the highest since March 18.

Prices are up 3.5 percent in the first quarter, peaking at a 15 month high of $83.95 a barrel on Jan. 11. Leaders of the 16 nation euro region endorsed a Franco-German proposal for a mix of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates on March 26, while voicing confidence that Greece won’t need outside help to cut its deficit, the biggest in the 16 nation euro region. The dollar fell to $1.3457 to the euro, down 0.4 percent from $1.341 on March 26. The dollar index, measured against six major currencies, dropped 0.4 percent today to 81.364.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Climbs From Two Week Low on Speculation Energy Demand Recovering

Crude oil rose for the first time in four days on expectations fuel demand will increase as the global economic recovery gained momentum and receding concerns over Greece’s debt crisis bolstered the euro. Oil climbed in New York the dollar fell against the euro following the International Monetary Fund and European Union pledge to help Greece finance the 16 nation region’s largest debt. Investors buy commodities as the greenback declines to offset inflation concerns and as an alternative investment.

“This rescue plan settles down the fears about the Eurozone going into a double dip recession so that’s bullish for crude,” said Anthony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “People feel the dollar will continue to be weak because of the long term policy to keep interest rates low and the money supply high.” Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 49 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $80.49 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $80.46 at 11:42 a.m. in Singapore.

The contract dropped 0.7 percent to $80 on March 26, the lowest close in almost two weeks, after a report showed the U.S. economy expanded less in the fourth quarter than analysts had estimated. Prices fell 1.2 percent for the week as U.S. crude stockpiles surged to a seven month high and the dollar rose against the euro on uncertainty over Greece’s debt problems.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil continued to engage in sideway trading below 83.16 last week. More consolidations would still be seen this week but after all, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring another rise. Break of 83.16 will target 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will indicate that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support instead.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .


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Where is Crude Oil Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.





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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

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Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.209. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424. First support is today's low crossing at 3.923. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above February's high crossing at 81.70. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.03. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86.

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Phil Flynn: Greece is Bad. Very, Very Bad!

Trichet trashed Greece. ECB head Jean Claude Trichet read Greece the riot act reversing course on the strengthening Euro and making the world think twice about a happy outcome after this Greek tragedy. Trichet scolded that Euro zone states need to be more responsible. ‘Everything going in the direction of euro zone members shying away from responsibilities is bad in our eyes”. How bad? Well “If the IMF or some other body exercises the responsibility in lieu of the Euro group or instead of governments, it is evidently very, very bad," he said. (Gee I wonder who he’s talking about.)

Trichet also said that the “mistake” of giving false figures must not be repeated. (Mistake? We have people in jail that made that type of mistake.) Trichet warned that Euro Zone countries must not an abandon an inch of their current responsibility (which probably confused many members that are on the metric system. He should have said that they should not abandon 2.54 centimeters of their current responsibility).

Of course that responsibility is to the Maastricht Treaty. You know that the one that led to the creation of the euro currency and also created what is called “the pillar structure of the European Community”. It was also the treaty that says countries belonging to the common currency zone year on year borrowing could not exceed 3 percent of GDP and that a country's total debt could not exceed 60 percent of its economic output.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Is Little Changed as GDP Report, Dollar's Weakening Send Mixed Signals

Crude oil fluctuated after a government report that the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose less than analysts forecast and the dollar weakened, increasing the investment appeal of commodities. Oil traded within a range of $1.87 a barrel as the Commerce Department reported gross domestic product expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate, less than the median estimate of 5.9 percent by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The dollar dropped as much as 1.1 percent against the euro.

“Since the GDP number came out, the market has struggled a bit” because it didn’t meet the consensus, said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. Crude oil for May delivery dropped 14 cents to $80.39 a barrel at 10:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have increased 48 percent from a year earlier. Oil declined 0.7 percent this week.

The dollar fell for the first time in four days versus the euro after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet toned down his opposition to the International Monetary Fund’s involvement in a Greek rescue plan. The U.S. currency dropped 1 percent to $1.3407 from a 10 month high of $1.3273 yesterday.

“People are watching the dollar as they await clear direction from inventory numbers,” Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, in Winchester, Massachusetts. Brent crude oil for May settlement rose 14 cents to $79.75 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: Dollar Index Going Higher?

It has been a while since we looked at the dollar index, so today we decided to dissect this market and look at it step by step.

What is happening in this market is very interesting and we think you will see in this short video just what we have in mind.

Just click here to watch "Dollar Index Going Higher" and as always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Do you agree with our analysis of the dollar index? Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think.


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil is still bounded in choppy sideway trading below 83.16 and intraday bias remains neutral. Nevertheless, even in case of another fall, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring rally resumption. Break of 83.16 will target a retest of 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will argue that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.






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