Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends Monday's breakout above the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 86.16. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.41.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.224 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.063. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.64. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this winter's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.07. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 80.52.

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Crude Oil Trades Little Changed Near 17 Month High Before U.S. Inventory Report

Crude oil traded little changed near a 17 month high in New York before a report forecast to show that supplies of U.S. crude increased while gasoline fell. U.S. gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.9 million barrels last week, while inventories of crude oil climbed 1 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey before tomorrow’s Energy Department report. Oil rose 2.1 percent yesterday to $86.62 a barrel, the highest close since Oct. 8, 2008, as growth in U.S. service industries signaled the economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s.

“The market’s pausing for breath after such a big move up,” said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. “With the recovery still at a fragile stage, and U.S. inventories ample, we’re unlikely to see prices surging to $100.” Crude oil for May delivery was 4 cents lower at $86.58 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:24 p.m. London time. Brent crude for May settlement was down 2 cents at $85.86 on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange.

U.S. service industries expanded in March at the fastest pace since May 2006, indicating the country’s recovery may be spreading beyond manufacturing and starting to create jobs. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, rose to 55.4 from 53 in the prior month. This exceeded the median forecast of 54 in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

‘Encouraging Data’

“We’ve seen some encouraging economic data the last few days,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “It’s keeping the global recovery story in place. Overall, we are expecting global oil demand growth to be positive this year.” The Energy Department will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. It’s also due to put out its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook today.

U.S. gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.9 million barrels from 224.9 million the prior week, according to the median estimate from seven analysts polled by Bloomberg News. Distillate fuel supplies, including heating oil and diesel, fell 1.5 million barrels from 144.6 million. Commercially held crude oil inventories are expected to have climbed 1 million barrels, increasing for a 10th week, the longest stretch of gains since late 2004, the survey showed. Stockpiles previously reached 354.2 million barrels, 6.5 percent above the five year average.


Reporter Grant Smith can be reached at gsmith52@bloomberg.net



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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

At this point, crude oil is consolidating below mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 86.92. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment and strong rally should be seen to 90 psychological level after taking out 86.92. On the downside, below 85.06 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 83.95 high confirmed that medium term rally from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below 78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Rallies to 17 Month High as US Job Data Shines

Crude oil jumped on the first day of trading after the Easter holiday as boosted by strong US economic data, particularly the employment report, and robust market sentiment. The benchmark contract of WTI crude oil rallied +2.06% and settled at 86.62. The contract reached an intraday high of 86.90, the highest level since October, 2008.

US non-farm payrolls increased +162K (consensus: +190K) in March while February's reading was revised -14K form -36K. Private payrolls surged +123K, the strongest gain since May 2007. Unemployment stayed at 9.7% but household employment increased for the 4rd consecutive month. Investors were excited as there are signs of improvement in the US job market.

Added to it were upbeat ISM indices. Manufacturing index improved to 59.6 in March from 56.5 a month ago, while services index also added +2.4 points to 55.4, the highest since May 2006. Oil exporters start raising prices as they see demands are set to improve further. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state-owned oil company, increased official selling prices for its Extra Light crude oil to customers in the US and Asia for May. Price will be 40 cents higher than April's.

Going back to hard facts - oil inventory, US crude oil inventory has risen for 9 weeks and current level is +6.5% above 5-year average. Although stockpiles for oil products, such as gasoline and distillate, have dropped, they are still holding at very high levels.

Gold strengthened despite firmness in USD. The benchmark contract gained +0.68% to 1133.8. Encouraging US data inevitably raised inflation fear and this helped gold. Others in the precious metal complex also soared. Silver rose +1.27% to 18.12 while platinum and palladium advanced +2.04% and +3.39%, respectively.....Here's the charts!


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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed up $1.87 at $86.74 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 1.5 year high today. Fresh speculative and commodity fund buying were seen today as prices have now pushed above the pivotal $85.00 level. A weaker U.S. dollar index and higher U.S. stock indexes today supported buying interest in crude oil. Crude oil bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.

Natural gas closed up 19.2 cents at $4.278 today. Prices closed near the session high today on short covering. Prices today showed good good follow through buying from solid gains Thursday and a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart has been confirmed. That is one early technical clue that a market bottom is in place. However, the bulls have more work to do in the near term to suggest an uptrend can be started.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 14 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. No serious chart damage has occurred recently. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Also, the Euro currency closed down as well, 11 points at 1.3475 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in quieter trading. Euro bears have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.


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Bulls Take Charge as Oil Surges Past $86

U.S. crude oil futures surged above $86 as fresh technical buying on a wave of economic optimism helped to lift the energy commodity's price to new heights Monday.
Spurred by encouraging economic data on the domestic front, the price of light, sweet crude oil for May delivery rose for a fifth consecutive session on the NYMEX, settling to $86.62 a barrel, the highest level in 18 months.

Additionally, NYMEX gasoline futures gained on the session to $2.35 a gallon, while natural gas spot prices at the Henry Hub also burned brighter on the commodity exchange at $4.28 Mcf. Today, crude rose alongside equities on positive economic data spotlighting an increase in pending home sales. Both markets also bounced on news that the U.S. services sector grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years during the month of March, an ISM report showed.

Oil Price at Full Throttle
Oil prices have gained by more than 8% during the span of a five day rally. "The market's starting to trend pretty nicely for oil," noted Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. However, given the ample supplies still underlying the crude oil market, this year's record price above $86 is arguably a bit on the high side, according to McGillian. "We really haven't seen any kind of significant increase in fuel demand levels," he underscored.

The analyst continued, "The price keeps pushing up for the same fundamental reasons, and everyone's waiting and watching to see how high it will go before the price has to turn back to a more realistic level." "But right now," McGillian added, "it looks as if the bulls are in charge and not fighting much resistance yet."


Reporter Nancy Agin writes for Rigzone.Com


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SandRidge Targets Shift to Oil From Gas in Acquisition of Arena Resources

Arena Resources Inc.’s oil reserves were the main target of SandRidge Energy Inc.’s $1.55 billion acquisition of the company as the buyer turns its focus to crude from natural gas production. “Our oil reserves were the real attraction to SandRidge,” Arena Resources Chairman Tim Rochford said in an interview. Reserves stood at 69 million barrels of oil equivalent as of Dec. 31, he said. Oklahoma City-based SandRidge will pay $2.50 in cash and 4.78 SandRidge shares for each Arena Resource share, a 17 percent premium to Arena’s April 1 close of $34.26, the companies said yesterday.

The purchase is SandRidge’s second in West Texas since November, when it bought properties from Forest Oil Corp. for about $800 million. By buying Arena Resources, SandRidge becomes one of the largest producers of West Texas conventional oil and gas. SandRidge said it will primarily drill shallow, low-risk reservoirs in the so called central basis platform, a part of the Permian Basin in West Texas. SandRidge is shifting its focus to oil as crude rises and gas futures fall. The company explores for both, though SandRidge Chief Executive Officer Tom Ward said last month at the Howard Weil Energy Conference that drillers can make “10 times more money” producing oil rather than gas.

Transformation to Oil

“We’ve been transforming from strictly a gas company to an oil company over the last couple of years,” Ward said in an April 4 telephone interview. SandRidge fell 38 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $7.47 at 10:42 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has dropped 21 percent this year. Tulsa, Oklahoma-based Arena Resources rose $2.70, or 7.9 percent, to $36.96. About 85 percent of SandRidge’s revenue at the end of 2008 came from natural gas, Ward said. The company’s current production is split at about 28 percent oil and 72 percent gas, while oil makes up about 54 percent of revenue, based on 10-year futures prices, he said.

SandRidge will be about 35 percent oil in terms of production, including the Forest and Arena transactions, Ward said today on a conference call with analysts and investors. The combined company will hold about 200,000 acres in the Permian Basin and 5,700 in other areas. The purchase will add to SandRidge’s cash flow in 2011, Ward said.

Gas Slump

“There have been a couple of hard years for gas,” because of the drop in demand that occurred in the recession, Ward said. “We’ve been looking for oil assets.” The agreement reflects SandRidge’s “contrarian style” of buying assets for terms that are below perceived value, said Scott Hanold, an energy analyst at RBC Capital Markets in New York. RBC values Arena Resources shares between $45 and $50, said Hanold, indicating that SandRidge is acquiring the company at a 10 to 20 percent discount.
Natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have tumbled 27 percent this year. Crude oil is up 8 percent in the same period and 68 percent over the past year.

“Gas has been under pressure,” said Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston. The Arena Resources acquisition, subject to the approval of shareholders of each company, is expected to close in June or July, Ward said. Deutsche Bank AG and Covington & Burling LLP are advising SandRidge, and SunTrust Banks Inc., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co., and Johnson & Jones PC are counseling Arena Resources.

Reporter Mark Shenk can be contacted at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.


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