Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, the choppy pull back from 87.09 might have completed at 82.51 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment and crude oil should target a retest of 87.09 first. Break will confirm rally resumption for 90 psychological level next. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 78.56 to 87.09 at 81.82 to conclude the correction and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and could extend further higher. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below 78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Bulls Struggle as Stochastics and RSI Turn Bearish

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends Monday's breakout below the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.90 signaling that a short term top has likely been posted. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22. Second support is today's low crossing at 82.51.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is the early April low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 79.73 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 82.06 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 81.01. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.28. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.22. Second support is March's low crossing at 79.73.






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President Obama - New Wildcatter or Bait 'n Switcher?

On the last day of March, President Obama went to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland to stand in front of an F-18 jet fighter called the Green Hornet, which is scheduled to fly powered by biofuel later this year, and announce he was recommending lifting offshore drilling curbs. The symbolism of pushing for more offshore drilling while highlighting biofuel for military jets was not lost on all observers. The announcement, when fully dissected, showed the administration made concessions in areas where they were destined to lose court cases, but they may actually be slowing down future offshore drilling. Yes, President Obama says he wants to open the East Coast waters from Delaware south to central Florida for offshore exploration, but ultimately it all depends on Congress signing on to the plan.

The administration made concessions in areas where they were destined to lose court cases, but they may actually be slowing down future offshore drilling. The staging symbolism was highlighted by the president's comments. In talking about his decision to open new coastal regions to offshore exploration, he said, "The bottom line is this: given our energy needs, in order to sustain economic growth we are going to need to harness traditional sources of fuel even as we ramp up production of new sources of renewable, homegrown energy."

In reality, the offshore drilling announcement was designed to win a few Republican senate votes for the potential energy bill being drafted by Senators John Kerry (D-MA), Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Joseph Lieberman (I-CT). The legislation they are writing is designed to attack carbon emissions through cap-and-trade on a sector by sector basis rather than economy wide. That means the utility industry will have one set of regulations implemented on a certain date while refiners would have a slightly different set of regulations and a different date and manufacturers would have yet another set of regulations and implementation date.....Read the entire article.





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Crude Oil Declines for a Fifth Day as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Forecast to Increase

Crude oil declined the most in six weeks as the International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for non OPEC supplies and U.S. inventories were estimated to climb, raising concern that the markets are oversupplied. Oil fell as much as 1.6 percent on the IEA forecast that production would expand in countries such as Canada, the U.K. and Russia as it kept the global demand outlook little changed. U.S. crude stockpiles may advance for an 11th week, the longest stretch of consecutive increases since December 2004, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

“We’re seeing a lot of growth out of the U.S., Russia and Canada, responding to high prices,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “Investments that were made leading up to 2008 are coming to fruition.”
Crude oil for May delivery lost $1.67, or 2 percent, to $82.67 a barrel at 10:27 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one day decline since Feb. 25. Prices have risen 65 percent in the past year. Crude oil peaked at a record $147.27 a barrel in July 2008.

Countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will raise output by 600,000 barrels a day this year to average 52 million barrels a day, the IEA said in its monthly market report today. That’s 220,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month. The agency’s global oil demand forecast was 30,000 barrels a day higher than in last month’s report. Non OPEC producers pump about 60 percent of the world’s oil.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: Is Gold Ready to Challenge its All Time High?

The bull market inched higher during Sunday night trading, subsequently pushing gold to its best levels since December of last year. The sudden move down on Monday was a reminder that the 1160 area is an area of resistance for this precious metal.

In this new video on gold, I'll show you some of the indicators that you may want to look at in this market.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements, but please share your thoughts on gold leaving a comment.


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Crude Oil Extends Decline Below 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.89. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline during April. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the overnight low crossing at 83.43. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.22.

Natural gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. If May renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405 is the next upside target. If May renews last week's decline, the early April low crossing at 3.810 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing 4.316. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 80.52 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 79.73 later this spring. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 82.06 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 81.01. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.24. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.22. Second support is March's low crossing at 79.73.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday

Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral for the moment as consolidations from 87.09 continues. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 78.56 to 87.09 at 81.82 and bring rally resumption. Above 87.09 will target 90 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and could extend further higher. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below 78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Morning

May crude oil was steady in late overnight trading as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.77. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 97.31. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.77. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.05.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May renews last week's decline, the early April low crossing at 3.810 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing 4.316. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.857. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 80.52 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 79.73 later this spring. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 82.06 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.24. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 80.22. Second support is March's low crossing at 79.73.


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Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Drops on Greece Package, After China Oil Imports Gain

Oil rose for the first time in four days as the dollar fell and the euro gained after European governments offered debt burdened Greece a rescue package and China increased crude imports to meet surging demand. Oil advanced as the weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Greece was offered as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below market interest rates to end its fiscal crisis. China increased March crude oil imports by 29 percent from a year earlier, according to customs data released April 10.

“China is playing a key role in underpinning global demand for commodities, including crude,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “The Greek rescue plan, which is going to be driving the markets today, resolves a lot of the uncertainty. A weaker dollar is a supportive element for oil prices.” Crude oil for May delivery gained as much as 79 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $85.71 a barrel and was at $85.38 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:57 p.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $84.92 on April 9.

Crude imports by China reached 21.1 million metric tons, or about 4.98 million barrels a day, preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs showed. Net imports reached 20.8 million tons, second only to December’s record 20.9 million tons. “China is continuing to grow at a strong rate,” CWA’s Hassall said.....Read the entire article.


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